Date: Wed, 17 June 2026 at 12:00
Aryna Sabalenka faces Ekaterina Alexandrova at German Open on hard court in a best-of-3 format. Here is how our model reads the matchup.
Our Elo rating makes Aryna Sabalenka a heavy favourite at 93% to win. Aryna Sabalenka holds a commanding 441-point Elo edge (2071 to 1630).
Aryna Sabalenka is especially strong on hard court; Ekaterina Alexandrova has struggled lately, 3 wins from 10.
Aryna Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 4–3; Ekaterina Alexandrova won the most recent meeting in 2025.
Model leans Aryna Sabalenka (93%)