Every value bet we publish is tracked against the closing line. This is the live scorecard — no cherry-picking.
| Sport | Bets | Win rate | ROI | Yield | Avg CLV | Calibration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ Baseball(v1) | 353 | 56.9% | +163.2% | +13.6% | +1.0% | 0.240 |
| 🎾 Tennis(v1) | 259 | 57.1% | +23.1% | +3.2% | +0.9% | 0.238 |
| ⚽ Football(v1) | 125 | 46.2% | -32.3% | -9.9% | +6.1% | 0.256 |
| 🏒 Hockey(v1) | 39 | 40.6% | -12.3% |
When we flag a bet at 60%, that side should win about 60% of the time. The closer to the diagonal, the better calibrated.
ROI — total profit as a share of a 100-unit bankroll over the period. The bottom-line return.
CLV (Closing Line Value) — did we get a better price than the market's closing line? Positive CLV is the single best predictor of long-term profit.
Yield — profit as a share of everything staked, using fractional-Kelly stakes.
Calibration (Brier score) — how closely our stated probabilities match reality. Lower is better.
Every model is retrained on decades of results, not opinions.
| -22.2% |
| +7.2% |
| 0.248 |
| 🏀 Basketball(v1) | 10 | 40.0% | -1.6% | -7.1% | +0.5% | 0.244 |
| 🏈 NFL(v1) | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |