Season Hub

Primeira Liga 2026-27 Season Predictions — Projected Table & Title Odds

Q: How do you calculate the Primeira Liga projection?

Every club carries a results-driven Elo rating; a Poisson goal model turns both teams' ratings into a scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture. We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times and count how often each club wins the title, finishes in Europe, or gets relegated.

Q: How often is the table updated?

The pre-season projection is frozen shortly before matchday 1 and kept unchanged all season as a reference point. The live projection re-simulates nightly as results come in.

Q: Does the model account for transfers or injuries?

No — the model only knows results and shot data. Squad depth, managerial changes and injuries only show up once they show up in results, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level.

Q: Is this the same model behind your Primeira Liga value bets?

Yes — the same Elo and Poisson engine also powers our value bets on individual matches. This table projection is entirely free; the value bets on individual matches are part of the paid plans.

Portugal's Primeira Liga is dominated by the big three — Benfica, Porto and Sporting have won every title for decades — yet the gaps between them swing hard year to year, and the race for the European places behind them is consistently tight. Our model ignores reputations: results-driven Elo ratings capture each club's current level, a Poisson goal engine models scorelines, and 10,000 simulations of the remaining fixtures produce title, top-four, Europe and relegation probabilities for all 18 clubs.

Live projectionLatest simulation: 30 Aug 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs over the remaining fixtures

Pos	Team	Pld	Pts	Proj Pts	Title %	Top 4 %	Europe %	Releg. %
1.27	FC Porto	3	9	81	80.5%	99.7%	>99.9%	0%
3.09	Sporting Clube de Portugal	4	10	69	8.7%	83.4%	97.9%	0%
3.52	Sport Lisboa e Benfica	2	4	67	5.2%	75.7%	96.2%	0%
3.83	Gil Vicente FC	2	6	66	3.9%	68.3%	94.3%	0%
4.53	FC Arouca	3	6	63	1.6%	49.9%	88.4%	0%
6.78	CD Santa Clara	3	7	55	0.1%	10.3%	46.0%	0%
7.15	Sporting Clube de Braga	1	1	53	0.1%	8.1%	38.8%	<0.1%
8.04	CS Marítimo	3	7	50	<0.1%	3.0%	20.9%	<0.1%
9.3	CD Nacional	3	4	46	0%	0.7%	8.1%	0.4%
9.72	Vitória SC	3	3	45	0%	0.5%	6.0%	0.7%
10.32	CF Estrela da Amadora	2	2	43	0%	0.3%	3.4%	1.7%
13.46	Académico de Viseu FC	3	2	33	0%	0%	<0.1%	19.6%
13.99	FC Famalicão	3	1	32	0%	0%	<0.1%	28.0%
14.24	FC Alverca	3	1	31	0%	0%	<0.1%	31.8%
14.27	Rio Ave FC	4	3	31	0%	0%	0%	31.5%
15.15	Moreirense FC	2	1	29	0%	0%	<0.1%	48.4%
15.65	GD Estoril Praia	3	1	27	0%	0%	0%	59.3%
16.67	Casa Pia AC	3	0	24	0%	0%	0%	78.6%

Compare with our pre-season snapshot

The frozen projection from before matchday 1 — kept unchanged all season so you can judge how the model's pre-season read held up.

Pos	Team	Pld	Pts	Proj Pts	Title %	Top 4 %	Europe %	Releg. %
1.32	FC Porto	3	9	73	77.9%	99.3%	99.9%	0%
3.18	Sport Lisboa e Benfica	2	4	62	11.2%	81.8%	94.3%	0.1%
4.07	Sporting Clube de Portugal	4	10	58	5.3%	67.8%	87.5%	0.1%
4.19	FC Famalicão	3	1	58	4.2%	66.0%	86.1%	0.1%
6.65	CD Santa Clara	3	7	51	0.6%	28.0%	56.9%	1.5%
7.3	FC Arouca	3	6	50	0.5%	21.6%	48.7%	2.6%
9.41	Sporting Clube de Braga	1	1	45	0.1%	8.9%	26.0%	8.2%
10.76	Rio Ave FC	4	3	43	0.1%	5.0%	16.3%	15.0%
10.88	CS Marítimo	3	7	43	<0.1%	4.5%	15.3%	15.3%
10.89	Académico de Viseu FC	3	2	43	<0.1%	4.1%	14.8%	15.2%
12.38	CD Nacional	3	4	40	0%	2.1%	8.6%	26.5%
12.39	Vitória SC	3	3	40	<0.1%	2.0%	8.0%	26.5%
12.43	Gil Vicente FC	2	6	40	<0.1%	1.9%	7.8%	26.4%
12.57	FC Alverca	3	1	40	<0.1%	1.8%	7.2%	27.8%
12.79	Moreirense FC	2	1	39	0%	1.7%	6.7%	30.0%
13.01	CF Estrela da Amadora	2	2	39	0%	1.4%	6.0%	32.5%
13.03	Casa Pia AC	3	0	39	0%	1.2%	6.0%	32.2%
13.76	GD Estoril Praia	3	1	37	0%	0.7%	3.8%	40.0%

Next 7 days

CD Nacional vs CF Estrela da AmadoraSun 30 Aug, 14:30
Casa Pia AC vs Moreirense FCSun 30 Aug, 17:00
FC Famalicão vs Gil Vicente FCSun 30 Aug, 19:30
Sporting Clube de Braga vs Vitória SCMon 31 Aug, 19:15
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs GD Estoril PraiaMon 31 Aug, 19:15
Sporting Clube de Portugal vs CD NacionalFri 04 Sept, 19:15
FC Porto vs Moreirense FCFri 04 Sept, 19:15
CF Estrela da Amadora vs FC FamalicãoSat 05 Sept, 14:30
FC Alverca vs Sporting Clube de BragaSat 05 Sept, 17:00
CS Marítimo vs Sport Lisboa e BenficaSat 05 Sept, 17:00

Club Elo ratings

Every club's current Elo — the same rating our model reads at predict time; higher = stronger, and it moves only with results.

Rank	Club	Elo	Trend
1	Sp Lisbon	1911	17
2	Benfica	1866	1
3	Barcelona	1812	19
4	FC Porto	1806	7
5	Real Madrid	1800	15
6	Sp Braga	1752	25
7	Sporting Clube de Braga	1752	199
8	Ath Madrid	1708	10
9	Ath Bilbao	1693	17
10	Guimaraes	1664	17
11	Vitória SC	1664	161
12	Sport Lisboa e Benfica	1638	20
13	CD Santa Clara	1627	11
14	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1623	48
15	FC Famalicão	1603	46
16	FC Arouca	1602	56
17	Osasuna	1593	39
18	Celta	1589	34
19	GD Estoril Praia	1579	118
20	Estoril	1579	1
21	Vallecano	1573	38
22	Valencia	1573	5
23	Sociedad	1528	24
24	Moreirense FC	1525	54
25	Est Amadora	1516	8
26	CF Estrela da Amadora	1516	61
27	Desp. Chaves	1505	65
28	Rio Ave FC	1499	44
29	Sevilla	1491	26
30	Gil Vicente FC	1487	32
31	Setubal	1484	28
32	Portimonense	1484	17
33	Belenenses	1480	7
34	CD Nacional	1479	11
35	Oviedo	1476	19
36	Farense	1472	23
37	Pacos Ferreira	1465	23
38	Maritimo	1461	17
39	FC Alverca	1461	21
40	Campomaiorense	1461	11
41	CD Tondela	1460	12
42	Nacional	1459	7
43	Vizela	1458	5
44	Campomaior	1458	39
45	Sp Gijon	1457	41
46	Olhanense	1456	15
47	Naval	1455	10
48	Chaves	1452	15
49	AVS	1451	48
50	Tenerife	1450	16
51	Estrela	1449	47
52	Leca	1449	24
53	Trofense	1444	14
54	Uniao Madeira	1441	40
55	La Coruna	1440	6
56	Casa Pia AC	1438	38
57	Academica	1437	23
58	Beira Mar	1436	±0
59	Varzim	1435	22
60	Tirsense	1434	6
61	Zaragoza	1426	5
62	Salgueiros	1425	±0
63	Felgueiras	1421	±0
64	Boavista	1420	5
65	Lerida	1419	57
66	Leixoes	1419	29
67	Madeira	1416	5
68	Feirense	1401	13
69	Albacete	1398	8
70	Leiria	1397	38
71	Espinho	1389	10
72	Santander	1383	33
73	Penafiel	1380	4
74	Logrones	1325	11
75	Valladolid	1310	39

75 clubs

2025-26 final table

The last completed season, for context while the new campaign is thin on games.

Pos	Team	Pld	Pts	GD
1	FC Porto	12	29	+12
2	Sport Lisboa e Benfica	12	28	+16
3	Sporting Clube de Portugal	11	24	+20
4	FC Famalicão	11	23	+7
5	Sporting Clube de Braga	12	20	+3
6	FC Arouca	12	19	+4
7	CD Santa Clara	11	19	+4
8	FC Alverca	12	14	-2
9	CD Nacional	12	13	-4
10	CD Tondela	12	13	-7
11	Rio Ave FC	10	12	-4
12	AVS	10	11	-4
13	Gil Vicente FC	12	10	-6
14	Vitória SC	11	10	-6
15	GD Estoril Praia	12	9	-8
16	Moreirense FC	11	9	-11
17	Casa Pia AC	12	8	-10
18	CF Estrela da Amadora	11	7	-4
19	Rio Ave FC	2	4	+2
20	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1	3	+1
21	AVS	2	2	0
22	Moreirense FC	1	1	0
23	Vitória SC	1	1	0
24	FC Famalicão	1	1	0
25	CF Estrela da Amadora	1	0	-1
26	CD Santa Clara	1	0	-2

How these projections work

Every club carries an Elo rating that moves only with results — beat a stronger side and it rises, drop points to a weaker one and it falls. A Poisson goal model (the same engine behind our football totals and handicap predictions, with a shots-on-target-based xG proxy) turns the two teams' ratings into a full scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture.

We then play out the rest of the season 10,000 times, drawing a result for every fixture from those distributions and re-building the table each time. The percentages above are simple counts across those simulated seasons: how often a club finished first, in the top four, in a European spot, or in the relegation places.

Honest limitations

The model only knows results and shot data — it cannot see transfers, injuries, managerial changes or squad depth until they show up in performances, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level. Probabilities are estimates, not promises: a 5% relegation chance still happens one season in twenty. We publish the projections in full; the value bets our model finds on individual matches are part of the paid plans and are never shown here.

Our track record in this league

18 settled value bets on Primeira Liga matches so far.

Win rate

36.1%

Result (units)

-18.33u

Avg. closing-line value

+1.42pp

See the full public track record

Go deeper

Related guides

Frequently asked questions

How do you calculate the Primeira Liga projection?

Every club carries a results-driven Elo rating; a Poisson goal model turns both teams' ratings into a scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture. We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times and count how often each club wins the title, finishes in Europe, or gets relegated.

How often is the table updated?

The pre-season projection is frozen shortly before matchday 1 and kept unchanged all season as a reference point. The live projection re-simulates nightly as results come in.

Does the model account for transfers or injuries?

No — the model only knows results and shot data. Squad depth, managerial changes and injuries only show up once they show up in results, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level.

Is this the same model behind your Primeira Liga value bets?

Yes — the same Elo and Poisson engine also powers our value bets on individual matches. This table projection is entirely free; the value bets on individual matches are part of the paid plans.