Season Hub

Serie A 2026-27 Season Predictions — Projected Table & Title Odds

Q: How do you calculate the Serie A projection?

Every club carries a results-driven Elo rating; a Poisson goal model turns both teams' ratings into a scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture. We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times and count how often each club wins the title, finishes in Europe, or gets relegated.

Q: How often is the table updated?

The pre-season projection is frozen shortly before matchday 1 and kept unchanged all season as a reference point. The live projection re-simulates nightly as results come in.

Q: Does the model account for transfers or injuries?

No — the model only knows results and shot data. Squad depth, managerial changes and injuries only show up once they show up in results, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level.

Q: Is this the same model behind your Serie A value bets?

Yes — the same Elo and Poisson engine also powers our value bets on individual matches. This table projection is entirely free; the value bets on individual matches are part of the paid plans.

Serie A has become the most open of the big-five title races — four different champions in recent seasons and a cluster of five or six clubs within a few Elo points of each other. That compression is where a simulation earns its keep: small strength differences compound over 38 rounds in non-obvious ways. Our model rates every squad from results with Elo, models match scorelines with a Poisson engine, and runs the remaining schedule 10,000 times to estimate Scudetto, top-four, Europe and relegation probabilities.

Live projectionLatest simulation: 29 Aug 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs over the remaining fixtures

Pos	Team	Pld	Pts	Proj Pts	Title %	Top 4 %	Europe %	Releg. %
2.56	AS Roma	1	3	81	36.2%	86.0%	97.2%	0%
3.33	Juventus FC	2	6	79	19.4%	74.4%	92.8%	0%
3.41	SSC Napoli	1	3	78	18.8%	73.4%	92.3%	0%
3.99	FC Internazionale Milano	1	3	76	12.3%	61.9%	87.0%	0%
4.2	AC Milan	2	6	76	10.3%	57.3%	85.0%	0%
6.18	SS Lazio	1	3	69	1.8%	21.3%	54.0%	0%
7.11	US Lecce	1	3	66	0.5%	10.4%	34.6%	0%
7.57	Cagliari Calcio	1	3	64	0.3%	7.0%	25.7%	0%
7.63	Atalanta BC	1	3	64	0.4%	7.6%	26.2%	0%
9.35	Como 1907	1	1	57	0%	0.7%	5.2%	<0.1%
11.8	Udinese Calcio	2	4	45	0%	0%	0.1%	1.5%
14.16	Torino FC	2	0	37	0%	0%	0%	13.3%
15.04	US Sassuolo Calcio	2	3	35	0%	0%	0%	21.4%
15.33	Frosinone Calcio	2	3	34	0%	0%	0%	24.5%
15.68	Genoa CFC	1	0	33	0%	0%	0%	29.5%
16.06	Parma Calcio 1913	2	0	32	0%	0%	0%	34.5%
16.22	Bologna FC 1909	1	0	32	0%	0%	0%	36.7%
16.32	AC Monza	2	0	32	0%	0%	0%	38.4%
16.68	Venezia FC	2	0	31	0%	0%	0%	44.4%
17.38	ACF Fiorentina	2	0	29	0%	0%	0%	55.6%

Compare with our pre-season snapshot

The frozen projection from before matchday 1 — kept unchanged all season so you can judge how the model's pre-season read held up.

Pos	Team	Pld	Pts	Proj Pts	Title %	Top 4 %	Europe %	Releg. %
3.32	Como 1907	1	1	70	24.6%	74.0%	90.9%	<0.1%
3.73	AS Roma	1	3	69	19.0%	67.2%	87.5%	0%
3.89	FC Internazionale Milano	1	3	68	17.4%	64.8%	85.9%	<0.1%
3.98	SSC Napoli	1	3	68	16.0%	63.3%	85.0%	<0.1%
4.03	Juventus FC	2	6	68	15.7%	61.9%	84.9%	0%
5.76	AC Milan	2	6	63	5.0%	35.4%	63.6%	0.1%
8.39	Udinese Calcio	2	4	56	0.8%	11.1%	29.3%	0.9%
8.59	Atalanta BC	1	3	56	1.0%	10.6%	27.4%	1.2%
10.39	SS Lazio	1	3	52	0.1%	3.7%	12.6%	3.4%
10.69	ACF Fiorentina	2	0	51	0.2%	3.3%	11.4%	4.2%
10.79	Torino FC	2	0	51	0.1%	2.9%	10.8%	4.5%
12.34	Bologna FC 1909	1	0	47	<0.1%	1.0%	5.0%	10.2%
14.6	Genoa CFC	1	0	43	0%	0.2%	1.1%	24.5%
14.8	US Sassuolo Calcio	2	3	42	0%	0.2%	1.2%	27.0%
15.24	Parma Calcio 1913	2	0	41	0%	0.1%	0.9%	31.2%
15.51	AC Monza	2	0	41	0%	0.1%	0.7%	33.6%
15.52	Venezia FC	2	0	41	0%	0.1%	0.6%	33.6%
15.55	Frosinone Calcio	2	3	41	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.6%	34.1%
16.25	Cagliari Calcio	1	3	39	0%	0.1%	0.3%	43.2%
16.63	US Lecce	1	3	38	0%	<0.1%	0.4%	48.2%

Next 7 days

SSC Napoli vs Como 1907Sun 30 Aug, 16:30
Cagliari Calcio vs FC Internazionale MilanoSun 30 Aug, 18:45
SS Lazio vs Genoa CFCSun 30 Aug, 18:45
US Lecce vs AS RomaMon 31 Aug, 16:30
Atalanta BC vs Bologna FC 1909Mon 31 Aug, 18:45
Genoa CFC vs Como 1907Fri 04 Sept, 18:45
ACF Fiorentina vs Torino FCSat 05 Sept, 13:00
FC Internazionale Milano vs SSC NapoliSat 05 Sept, 16:00
AS Roma vs Atalanta BCSat 05 Sept, 18:45

Club Elo ratings

Every club's current Elo — the same rating our model reads at predict time; higher = stronger, and it moves only with results.

Rank	Club	Elo	Trend
1	Inter	1815	3
2	FC Internazionale Milano	1747	3
3	AS Roma	1743	57
4	SSC Napoli	1743	2
5	Juventus FC	1721	8
6	Como 1907	1706	26
7	AC Milan	1693	43
8	Udinese Calcio	1652	79
9	SS Lazio	1647	±0
10	Atalanta BC	1641	21
11	Torino FC	1613	98
12	Bologna FC 1909	1577	24
13	ACF Fiorentina	1575	21
14	Cagliari Calcio	1564	16
15	Como	1559	41
16	US Sassuolo Calcio	1528	29
17	US Lecce	1515	58
18	Parma Calcio 1913	1515	35
19	Carpi	1515	40
20	Perugia	1514	43
21	Genoa CFC	1501	36
22	Reggiana	1479	21
23	Catania	1475	69
24	Spezia	1470	22
25	Vicenza	1469	9
26	US Cremonese	1464	21
27	Piacenza	1454	21
28	Novara	1453	20
29	Frosinone	1447	17
30	Modena	1447	23
31	Hellas Verona FC	1438	28
32	Empoli	1438	±0
33	Siena	1437	60
34	Ascoli	1432	4
35	Venezia	1431	2
36	Foggia	1423	12
37	Benevento	1413	33
38	Palermo	1408	40
39	Chievo	1396	20
40	Sampdoria	1394	12
41	Crotone	1388	19
42	Treviso	1387	10
43	SPAL 2013	1386	40
44	Salernitana	1379	14
45	AC Pisa 1909	1376	62
46	Brescia	1371	11
47	Padova	1370	30
48	Bari	1367	28
49	Messina	1364	9
50	Ancona	1350	20
51	Cesena	1349	44
52	Livorno	1343	47
53	Spal	1342	37
54	Monza	1339	4
55	Pescara	1310	5

55 clubs

2025-26 final table

The last completed season, for context while the new campaign is thin on games.

Pos	Team	Pld	Pts	GD
1	Como 1907	11	29	+18
2	SSC Napoli	12	25	+9
3	AS Roma	11	23	+13
4	ACF Fiorentina	13	21	+1
5	SS Lazio	13	21	0
6	Juventus FC	12	20	+6
7	FC Internazionale Milano	10	17	+8
8	Atalanta BC	12	17	+3
9	Bologna FC 1909	11	17	-2
10	AC Milan	12	16	-1
11	Udinese Calcio	12	15	+4
12	Parma Calcio 1913	12	15	-5
13	US Sassuolo Calcio	11	14	+2
14	Genoa CFC	12	14	-3
15	US Lecce	12	14	-6
16	Torino FC	11	12	-2
17	Cagliari Calcio	11	12	-4
18	US Cremonese	11	10	-11
19	FC Internazionale Milano	3	9	+7
20	Bologna FC 1909	2	6	+3
21	Torino FC	2	6	+2
22	Hellas Verona FC	12	6	-11
23	Udinese Calcio	1	3	+3
24	Genoa CFC	1	3	+1
25	Juventus FC	1	3	+1
26	AS Roma	2	3	0
27	US Sassuolo Calcio	2	3	0
28	Cagliari Calcio	2	3	-2
29	AC Pisa 1909	11	3	-19
30	SSC Napoli	1	1	0
31	Parma Calcio 1913	1	1	0
32	Hellas Verona FC	1	0	-1
33	Atalanta BC	1	0	-1
34	Como 1907	2	0	-2
35	US Cremonese	2	0	-2
36	US Lecce	1	0	-2
37	AC Milan	1	0	-3
38	AC Pisa 1909	2	0	-4

How these projections work

Every club carries an Elo rating that moves only with results — beat a stronger side and it rises, drop points to a weaker one and it falls. A Poisson goal model (the same engine behind our football totals and handicap predictions, with a shots-on-target-based xG proxy) turns the two teams' ratings into a full scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture.

We then play out the rest of the season 10,000 times, drawing a result for every fixture from those distributions and re-building the table each time. The percentages above are simple counts across those simulated seasons: how often a club finished first, in the top four, in a European spot, or in the relegation places.

Honest limitations

The model only knows results and shot data — it cannot see transfers, injuries, managerial changes or squad depth until they show up in performances, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level. Probabilities are estimates, not promises: a 5% relegation chance still happens one season in twenty. We publish the projections in full; the value bets our model finds on individual matches are part of the paid plans and are never shown here.

Our track record in this league

35 settled value bets on Serie A matches so far.

Win rate

48.6%

Result (units)

-5.52u

Avg. closing-line value

+4.34pp

See the full public track record

Go deeper

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Frequently asked questions

How do you calculate the Serie A projection?

Every club carries a results-driven Elo rating; a Poisson goal model turns both teams' ratings into a scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture. We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times and count how often each club wins the title, finishes in Europe, or gets relegated.

How often is the table updated?

The pre-season projection is frozen shortly before matchday 1 and kept unchanged all season as a reference point. The live projection re-simulates nightly as results come in.

Does the model account for transfers or injuries?

No — the model only knows results and shot data. Squad depth, managerial changes and injuries only show up once they show up in results, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level.

Is this the same model behind your Serie A value bets?

Yes — the same Elo and Poisson engine also powers our value bets on individual matches. This table projection is entirely free; the value bets on individual matches are part of the paid plans.