Serie A has become the most open of the big-five title races — four different champions in recent seasons and a cluster of five or six clubs within a few Elo points of each other. That compression is where a simulation earns its keep: small strength differences compound over 38 rounds in non-obvious ways. Our model rates every squad from results with Elo, models match scorelines with a Poisson engine, and runs the remaining schedule 10,000 times to estimate Scudetto, top-four, Europe and relegation probabilities.
| Pos | Team | Pld | Pts | Proj Pts | Title % | Top 4 % | Europe % | Releg. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.35 | Como 1907 | 0 | 0 | 70 | 24.0% | 73.2% | 90.4% | 0% |
| 3.74 | AS Roma | 0 | 0 | 69 | 19.0% | 67.1% | 87.2% | <0.1% |
| 3.91 | FC Internazionale Milano | 0 | 0 | 68 | 17.3% | 64.5% | 85.4% | <0.1% |
| 3.97 | SSC Napoli | 0 | 0 | 68 | 16.5% | 62.9% | 85.0% | <0.1% |
| 4.02 | Juventus FC | 0 | 0 | 68 | 15.9% | 62.7% | 84.4% | <0.1% |
| 5.78 | AC Milan | 0 | 0 | 63 | 5.4% | 35.0% | 63.1% | 0.1% |
| 8.33 | Udinese Calcio | 0 | 0 | 56 | 0.9% | 11.5% | 30.2% | 0.7% |
| 8.56 | Atalanta BC | 0 | 0 | 56 | 0.7% | 10.6% | 27.4% | 1.1% |
| 10.3 | SS Lazio | 0 | 0 | 52 | 0.2% | 3.9% | 13.6% | 3.3% |
| 10.67 | ACF Fiorentina | 0 | 0 | 51 | 0.1% | 3.3% | 11.4% | 4.0% |
| 10.85 | Torino FC | 0 | 0 | 51 | 0.1% | 3.1% | 10.9% | 4.8% |
| 12.34 | Bologna FC 1909 | 0 | 0 | 47 | <0.1% | 1.3% | 5.1% | 9.6% |
| 14.62 | Genoa CFC | 0 | 0 | 43 | 0% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 24.7% |
| 14.76 | US Sassuolo Calcio | 0 | 0 | 42 | 0% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 26.1% |
| 15.19 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 0% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 30.7% |
| 15.5 | Frosinone Calcio | 0 | 0 | 41 | 0% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 34.2% |
| 15.53 | AC Monza | 0 | 0 | 41 | 0% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 34.1% |
| 15.59 | Venezia FC | 0 | 0 | 41 | 0% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 34.9% |
| 16.31 | Cagliari Calcio | 0 | 0 | 39 | 0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 43.1% |
| 16.67 | US Lecce | 0 | 0 | 38 | 0% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 48.4% |
The frozen projection from before matchday 1 — kept unchanged all season so you can judge how the model's pre-season read held up.
| Pos | Team | Pld | Pts | Proj Pts | Title % | Top 4 % | Europe % | Releg. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.32 | Como 1907 | 0 | 0 | 70 | 24.6% | 74.0% | 90.9% | <0.1% |
| 3.73 | AS Roma | 0 | 0 | 69 | 19.0% | 67.2% | 87.5% | 0% |
| 3.89 | FC Internazionale Milano | 0 | 0 | 68 | 17.4% | 64.8% | 85.9% | <0.1% |
| 3.98 | SSC Napoli | 0 | 0 | 68 | 16.0% | 63.3% | 85.0% | <0.1% |
| 4.03 | Juventus FC | 0 | 0 | 68 | 15.7% | 61.9% | 84.9% | 0% |
| 5.76 | AC Milan | 0 | 0 | 63 | 5.0% | 35.4% | 63.6% | 0.1% |
| 8.39 | Udinese Calcio | 0 | 0 | 56 | 0.8% | 11.1% | 29.3% | 0.9% |
| 8.59 | Atalanta BC | 0 | 0 | 56 | 1.0% | 10.6% | 27.4% | 1.2% |
| 10.39 | SS Lazio | 0 | 0 | 52 | 0.1% | 3.7% | 12.6% | 3.4% |
| 10.69 | ACF Fiorentina | 0 | 0 | 51 | 0.2% | 3.3% | 11.4% | 4.2% |
| 10.79 | Torino FC | 0 | 0 | 51 | 0.1% | 2.9% | 10.8% | 4.5% |
| 12.34 | Bologna FC 1909 | 0 | 0 | 47 | <0.1% | 1.0% | 5.0% | 10.2% |
| 14.6 | Genoa CFC | 0 | 0 | 43 | 0% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 24.5% |
| 14.8 | US Sassuolo Calcio | 0 | 0 | 42 | 0% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 27.0% |
| 15.24 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 0% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 31.2% |
| 15.51 | AC Monza | 0 | 0 | 41 | 0% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 33.6% |
| 15.52 | Venezia FC | 0 | 0 | 41 | 0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 33.6% |
| 15.55 | Frosinone Calcio | 0 | 0 | 41 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.6% | 34.1% |
| 16.25 | Cagliari Calcio | 0 | 0 | 39 | 0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 43.2% |
| 16.63 | US Lecce | 0 | 0 | 38 | 0% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 48.2% |
Every club carries an Elo rating that moves only with results — beat a stronger side and it rises, drop points to a weaker one and it falls. A Poisson goal model (the same engine behind our football totals and handicap predictions, with a shots-on-target-based xG proxy) turns the two teams' ratings into a full scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture.
We then play out the rest of the season 10,000 times, drawing a result for every fixture from those distributions and re-building the table each time. The percentages above are simple counts across those simulated seasons: how often a club finished first, in the top four, in a European spot, or in the relegation places.
The model only knows results and shot data — it cannot see transfers, injuries, managerial changes or squad depth until they show up in performances, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level. Probabilities are estimates, not promises: a 5% relegation chance still happens one season in twenty. We publish the projections in full; the value bets our model finds on individual matches are part of the paid plans and are never shown here.