The Eredivisie is the highest-scoring league we cover — open, attacking football where the traditional big three (Ajax, PSV, Feyenoord) trade the title but rarely all show up in the same season. High scoring suits a Poisson goal model well: more goals mean more signal per match. Our model combines that engine with per-club Elo ratings and simulates the remaining schedule 10,000 times to project the final table, the title race and the relegation scrap.
| Pos | Team | Pld | Pts | Proj Pts | Title % | Top 4 % | Europe % | Releg. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.33 | AZ | 4 | 12 | 71 | 35.1% | 92.1% | 98.9% | 0% |
| 2.53 | PSV | 3 | 7 | 70 | 29.1% | 90.4% | 98.2% | 0% |
| 2.6 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 3 | 7 | 70 | 27.6% | 89.3% | 98.1% | 0% |
| 4.44 | Go Ahead Eagles | 4 | 7 | 62 | 5.2% | 56.0% | 86.3% | 0% |
| 5.46 | AFC Ajax | 2 | 4 | 59 | 2.0% | 34.2% | 71.9% | 0% |
| 6.52 | SBV Excelsior | 3 | 6 | 55 | 0.6% | 18.7% | 54.0% | 0% |
| 8.04 | Fortuna Sittard | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0.1% | 6.3% | 27.8% | <0.1% |
| 8.16 | NEC | 3 | 6 | 51 | 0.1% | 6.5% | 26.9% | 0.1% |
| 8.86 | FC Twente '65 | 2 | 3 | 49 | <0.1% | 4.0% | 18.6% | 0.2% |
| 10.35 | FC Groningen | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0% | 0.9% | 6.5% | 0.7% |
| 10.57 | Sparta Rotterdam | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0% | 0.8% | 5.8% | 1.1% |
| 10.82 | Telstar 1963 | 2 | 3 | 44 | 0% | 0.6% | 5.0% | 1.5% |
| 11.77 | SC Heerenveen | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 3.1% |
| 13.87 | PEC Zwolle | 4 | 3 | 34 | 0% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 18.3% |
| 15.68 | FC Utrecht | 3 | 1 | 28 | 0% | 0% | <0.1% | 56.2% |
| 16.13 | Willem II Tilburg | 2 | 0 | 26 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 68.0% |
| 16.31 | ADO Den Haag | 3 | 0 | 26 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 72.2% |
| 16.57 | SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden | 3 | 0 | 24 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 78.5% |
The frozen projection from before matchday 1 — kept unchanged all season so you can judge how the model's pre-season read held up.
| Pos | Team | Pld | Pts | Proj Pts | Title % | Top 4 % | Europe % | Releg. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.99 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 3 | 7 | 67 | 51.0% | 93.8% | 98.4% | 0% |
| 2.94 | PSV | 3 | 7 | 63 | 24.1% | 82.8% | 94.3% | <0.1% |
| 4.01 | FC Utrecht | 3 | 1 | 59 | 11.4% | 66.3% | 86.5% | 0.1% |
| 4.7 | AFC Ajax | 2 | 4 | 57 | 7.3% | 55.0% | 78.9% | 0.3% |
| 5.55 | FC Twente '65 | 2 | 3 | 55 | 3.9% | 42.3% | 69.5% | 0.6% |
| 7.16 | FC Groningen | 4 | 6 | 51 | 1.3% | 23.0% | 49.0% | 2.0% |
| 9.51 | AZ | 4 | 12 | 46 | 0.4% | 8.1% | 23.8% | 7.7% |
| 9.54 | NEC | 3 | 6 | 46 | 0.2% | 8.2% | 23.1% | 7.5% |
| 9.91 | Telstar 1963 | 2 | 3 | 45 | 0.2% | 6.6% | 19.7% | 8.9% |
| 11.06 | SC Heerenveen | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0.1% | 3.9% | 13.2% | 14.9% |
| 11.63 | Go Ahead Eagles | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0.1% | 2.9% | 10.5% | 19.2% |
| 12.54 | ADO Den Haag | 3 | 0 | 40 | <0.1% | 1.5% | 6.7% | 26.5% |
| 12.56 | SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden | 3 | 0 | 40 | <0.1% | 1.7% | 6.6% | 26.0% |
| 12.61 | Willem II Tilburg | 2 | 0 | 40 | <0.1% | 1.4% | 6.4% | 26.8% |
| 13.12 | PEC Zwolle | 4 | 3 | 39 | <0.1% | 1.1% | 5.2% | 32.2% |
| 13.89 | Sparta Rotterdam | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0% | 0.6% | 3.1% | 40.5% |
| 13.93 | Fortuna Sittard | 4 | 7 | 37 | 0% | 0.6% | 2.8% | 40.8% |
| 14.35 | SBV Excelsior | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0% | 0.4% | 2.3% | 46.1% |
Every club's current Elo — the same rating our model reads at predict time; higher = stronger, and it moves only with results.
| Rank | Club | Elo | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 1820 | 41 |
| 2 | FC Twente '65 | 1730 | 15 |
| 3 | AFC Ajax | 1722 | 13 |
| 4 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1708 | 14 |
| 5 | PSV | 1666 | 44 |
| 6 | AZ Alkmaar | 1639 | 1 |
| 7 | SC Heerenveen | 1622 | 65 |
| 8 | FC Utrecht | 1612 | 15 |
| 9 | FC Groningen | 1599 | 1 |
| 10 | AZ | 1598 | 64 |
| 11 | NEC | 1556 | 8 |
| 12 | Nijmegen | 1551 | 40 |
| 13 | Go Ahead Eagles | 1547 | 10 |
| 14 | Telstar 1963 | 1541 | 32 |
| 15 | Roda JC | 1535 | 44 |
| 16 | Fortuna Sittard | 1505 | 38 |
| 17 | For Sittard | 1491 | 19 |
| 18 | PEC Zwolle | 1489 | 42 |
| 19 | Sparta Rotterdam | 1469 | 27 |
| 20 | SBV Excelsior | 1467 | 64 |
| 21 | FC Volendam | 1456 | 11 |
| 22 | NAC Breda | 1451 | 55 |
| 23 | Heracles Almelo | 1439 | 47 |
| 24 | Roda | 1436 | 47 |
| 25 | Vitesse | 1424 | 36 |
| 26 | FC Emmen | 1424 | 13 |
| 27 | Waalwijk | 1416 | 13 |
| 28 | Almere City | 1405 | 3 |
| 29 | Graafschap | 1396 | 2 |
| 30 | MVV Maastricht | 1390 | 25 |
| 31 | Den Haag | 1383 | 17 |
| 32 | Dordrecht | 1358 | 16 |
| 33 | Willem II | 1357 | 29 |
| 34 | VVV Venlo | 1352 | 37 |
| 35 | Den Bosch | 1349 | 4 |
| 36 | Cambuur | 1323 | 8 |
| 37 | Roosendaal | 1310 | 22 |
37 clubs
The last completed season, for context while the new campaign is thin on games.
| Pos | Team | Pld | Pts | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV | 10 | 22 | +15 |
| 2 | FC Twente '65 | 10 | 20 | +6 |
| 3 | FC Utrecht | 10 | 20 | +5 |
| 4 | Telstar 1963 | 10 | 19 | +9 |
| 5 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 10 | 19 | +5 |
| 6 | NEC | 11 | 17 | +5 |
| 7 | SC Heerenveen | 10 | 17 | +1 |
| 8 | AZ | 11 | 16 | +5 |
| 9 | FC Groningen | 10 | 16 | +4 |
| 10 | Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 13 | -6 |
| 11 | SBV Excelsior | 11 | 12 | +1 |
| 12 | Go Ahead Eagles | 9 | 11 | +2 |
| 13 | AFC Ajax | 10 | 11 | +2 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 11 | -6 |
| 15 | NAC Breda | 10 | 9 | -11 |
| 16 | FC Volendam | 9 | 7 | -7 |
| 17 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 5 | -13 |
| 18 | Go Ahead Eagles | 2 | 4 | +5 |
| 19 | SC Heerenveen | 1 | 3 | +3 |
| 20 | FC Utrecht | 1 | 3 | +3 |
| 21 | AFC Ajax | 1 | 3 | +3 |
| 22 | PSV | 1 | 3 | +2 |
| 23 | FC Twente '65 | 1 | 3 | +1 |
| 24 | Heracles Almelo | 9 | 2 | -17 |
| 25 | NAC Breda | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 | FC Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 | FC Volendam | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| 29 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | -2 |
| 30 | Telstar 1963 | 1 | 0 | -3 |
| 31 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | -5 |
| 32 | Heracles Almelo | 2 | 0 | -6 |
Every club carries an Elo rating that moves only with results — beat a stronger side and it rises, drop points to a weaker one and it falls. A Poisson goal model (the same engine behind our football totals and handicap predictions, with a shots-on-target-based xG proxy) turns the two teams' ratings into a full scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture.
We then play out the rest of the season 10,000 times, drawing a result for every fixture from those distributions and re-building the table each time. The percentages above are simple counts across those simulated seasons: how often a club finished first, in the top four, in a European spot, or in the relegation places.
The model only knows results and shot data — it cannot see transfers, injuries, managerial changes or squad depth until they show up in performances, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level. Probabilities are estimates, not promises: a 5% relegation chance still happens one season in twenty. We publish the projections in full; the value bets our model finds on individual matches are part of the paid plans and are never shown here.
20 settled value bets on Eredivisie matches so far.
Every club carries a results-driven Elo rating; a Poisson goal model turns both teams' ratings into a scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture. We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times and count how often each club wins the title, finishes in Europe, or gets relegated.
The pre-season projection is frozen shortly before matchday 1 and kept unchanged all season as a reference point. The live projection re-simulates nightly as results come in.
No — the model only knows results and shot data. Squad depth, managerial changes and injuries only show up once they show up in results, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level.
Yes — the same Elo and Poisson engine also powers our value bets on individual matches. This table projection is entirely free; the value bets on individual matches are part of the paid plans.