The Eredivisie is the highest-scoring league we cover — open, attacking football where the traditional big three (Ajax, PSV, Feyenoord) trade the title but rarely all show up in the same season. High scoring suits a Poisson goal model well: more goals mean more signal per match. Our model combines that engine with per-club Elo ratings and simulates the remaining schedule 10,000 times to project the final table, the title race and the relegation scrap.
| Pos | Team | Pld | Pts | Proj Pts | Title % | Top 4 % | Europe % | Releg. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.99 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 0 | 0 | 67 | 51.0% | 93.8% | 98.4% | 0% |
| 2.94 | PSV | 0 | 0 | 63 | 24.1% | 82.8% | 94.3% | <0.1% |
| 4.01 | FC Utrecht | 0 | 0 | 59 | 11.4% | 66.3% | 86.5% | 0.1% |
| 4.7 | AFC Ajax | 0 | 0 | 57 | 7.3% | 55.0% | 78.9% | 0.3% |
| 5.55 | FC Twente '65 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 3.9% | 42.3% | 69.5% | 0.6% |
| 7.16 | FC Groningen | 0 | 0 | 51 | 1.3% | 23.0% | 49.0% | 2.0% |
| 9.51 | AZ | 0 | 0 | 46 | 0.4% | 8.1% | 23.8% | 7.7% |
| 9.54 | NEC | 0 | 0 | 46 | 0.2% | 8.2% | 23.1% | 7.5% |
| 9.91 | Telstar 1963 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 0.2% | 6.6% | 19.7% | 8.9% |
| 11.06 | SC Heerenveen | 0 | 0 | 43 | 0.1% | 3.9% | 13.2% | 14.9% |
| 11.63 | Go Ahead Eagles | 0 | 0 | 42 | 0.1% | 2.9% | 10.5% | 19.2% |
| 12.54 | ADO Den Haag | 0 | 0 | 40 | <0.1% | 1.5% | 6.7% | 26.5% |
| 12.56 | SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden | 0 | 0 | 40 | <0.1% | 1.7% | 6.6% | 26.0% |
| 12.61 | Willem II Tilburg | 0 | 0 | 40 | <0.1% | 1.4% | 6.4% | 26.8% |
| 13.12 | PEC Zwolle | 0 | 0 | 39 | <0.1% | 1.1% | 5.2% | 32.2% |
| 13.89 | Sparta Rotterdam | 0 | 0 | 37 | 0% | 0.6% | 3.1% | 40.5% |
| 13.93 | Fortuna Sittard | 0 | 0 | 37 | 0% | 0.6% | 2.8% | 40.8% |
| 14.35 | SBV Excelsior | 0 | 0 | 36 | 0% | 0.4% | 2.3% | 46.1% |
Every club carries an Elo rating that moves only with results — beat a stronger side and it rises, drop points to a weaker one and it falls. A Poisson goal model (the same engine behind our football totals and handicap predictions, with a shots-on-target-based xG proxy) turns the two teams' ratings into a full scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture.
We then play out the rest of the season 10,000 times, drawing a result for every fixture from those distributions and re-building the table each time. The percentages above are simple counts across those simulated seasons: how often a club finished first, in the top four, in a European spot, or in the relegation places.
The model only knows results and shot data — it cannot see transfers, injuries, managerial changes or squad depth until they show up in performances, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level. Probabilities are estimates, not promises: a 5% relegation chance still happens one season in twenty. We publish the projections in full; the value bets our model finds on individual matches are part of the paid plans and are never shown here.