Fair value for 6-point teasers, backed by 3,028 NFL games (2015–2025). Enter both legs' original closing spreads and your book's teaser price to see the historical cover rate and expected value.
This teaser looks like -EV against the historical cover rates — the book's price is short.
A teaser lets you move the point spread in your favor on multiple legs, at worse odds than a straight bet, in exchange for a much easier cover. A 6-point teaser adds 6 points to an underdog's spread or subtracts 6 from a favorite's.
Wong teasers (named after gambling author Stanford Wong) target the two spread ranges where a 6-point tease crosses the NFL's most common margins of victory — 3 and 7 points. A favorite of -7.5 to -9 teases down to -1.5 to -3 (crossing both 7 and 3); an underdog of +1.5 to +3 teases up to +7.5 to +9 (crossing 3, then 7). Crossing those key numbers is worth more than crossing any other pair of numbers, because so many NFL games are decided by exactly 3 or 7 points.
The historical cover rates below are computed per 1-point bucket of the ORIGINAL closing spread (before the tease), separately for favorites and underdogs, from our database of 3,028 NFL games 2015–2025.
A Wong teaser is a 6-point NFL teaser restricted to legs where the tease crosses both key numbers 3 and 7: underdogs from +1.5 to +3 teased up to +7.5/+9, or favorites from −7.5 to −9 teased down to −1.5/−3. Named after Stanford Wong, who documented that only these legs historically cover often enough to beat the teaser price.
At −120 (decimal 1.83) the pair must win 54.5% of the time, which means about 73.9% per leg assuming independent games. At −110 the per-leg break-even drops to about 72.4%; at −130 it rises to about 75.4%.
In our database of 3,028 NFL games (2015–2025), underdogs teased from +1.5/+2.5 covered about 77% of the time and favorites teased from −7.5/−8.5 covered about 73% — both near or above the −120 break-even. Legs outside the Wong zone cover only 63–69% and are losing bets.
When your book prices teaser legs individually from its alternate spread lines. Those game-specific prices already contain more information than any historical aggregate, so the edge is priced out. Teasers are only worth checking at books that price them as a flat bundle (e.g. −110/−120 for any two legs).