National Team Elo Rankings — Every Country, All Confederations

How national-team Elo works

Elo converts results into a single strength number: a win against a higher-rated opponent earns more points than beating a weaker one, and the margin of victory matters. It updates after every completed international, so the table reflects current form rather than how a team qualified. The same Elo difference feeds the win probabilities in our match model — roughly a 100-point edge is about a 64% chance in a single game before home advantage.

National-team Elo has one hard problem the club game doesn't: confederations rarely play each other, so the pools can drift apart. We weight the rare cross-confederation matches (World Cups, intercontinental friendlies and play-offs) more heavily, which pulls the six confederations onto a common scale. That correction is why a strong European side and a strong South American side sit where head-to-head results say they should, not where an isolated regional ranking would put them.

The Trend column is the Elo change over each team's last six internationals — a read on who's rising into a tournament and who's sliding. Ratings are content-only here, but they are the exact numbers the model reads when it prices a match, so this page is a window into how it sees the international game.

From the blog