Germany's Bundesliga pairs the most reliable favourite in Europe with one of its most chaotic mid-tables: Bayern's baseline is historically strong, but the race for the Champions League spots and the relegation playoff place churns every season. Our model doesn't assume any of that — it rates each squad from results with Elo, models goals with a Dixon-Coles-adjusted Poisson engine, and simulates the remaining 34-round schedule 10,000 times to estimate every club's title, top-four, Europe and relegation chances.
Every club carries an Elo rating that moves only with results — beat a stronger side and it rises, drop points to a weaker one and it falls. A Poisson goal model (the same engine behind our football totals and handicap predictions, with a shots-on-target-based xG proxy) turns the two teams' ratings into a full scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture.
We then play out the rest of the season 10,000 times, drawing a result for every fixture from those distributions and re-building the table each time. The percentages above are simple counts across those simulated seasons: how often a club finished first, in the top four, in a European spot, or in the relegation places.
The model only knows results and shot data — it cannot see transfers, injuries, managerial changes or squad depth until they show up in performances, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level. Probabilities are estimates, not promises: a 5% relegation chance still happens one season in twenty. We publish the projections in full; the value bets our model finds on individual matches are part of the paid plans and are never shown here.