La Liga is usually framed as a two-horse race, but the numbers tell a subtler story: Real Madrid and Barcelona set the pace, Atlético hover in between, and a tactical, low-scoring mid-table makes goal totals and margins tighter than in England or Germany. Our Poisson goal model is built for exactly that scoring environment; combined with Elo ratings updated after every match, it re-simulates the remaining fixtures 10,000 times to put honest percentages on the title race, the top four and the relegation battle.
| Pos | Team | Pld | Pts | Proj Pts | Title % | Top 4 % | Europe % | Releg. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.57 | FC Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 78 | 60.7% | 98.7% | 99.8% | 0% |
| 2.18 | Real Madrid CF | 0 | 0 | 74 | 31.6% | 94.9% | 98.5% | 0% |
| 4.47 | Valencia CF | 0 | 0 | 64 | 4.8% | 63.8% | 82.2% | 0.1% |
| 6.06 | Club Atlético de Madrid | 0 | 0 | 60 | 1.5% | 40.8% | 65.0% | 0.5% |
| 7.62 | Villarreal CF | 0 | 0 | 56 | 0.5% | 23.7% | 47.0% | 1.6% |
| 8.21 | Getafe CF | 0 | 0 | 55 | 0.4% | 19.5% | 40.8% | 2.1% |
| 9.3 | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 0 | 0 | 53 | 0.2% | 12.9% | 30.7% | 3.9% |
| 9.78 | Levante UD | 0 | 0 | 52 | 0.1% | 10.3% | 26.4% | 5.0% |
| 10.33 | RC Celta de Vigo | 0 | 0 | 51 | 0.1% | 8.5% | 22.3% | 6.6% |
| 10.55 | Real Betis Balompié | 0 | 0 | 51 | 0.1% | 8.2% | 21.6% | 7.2% |
| 12.33 | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 0 | 0 | 48 | 0% | 3.3% | 10.9% | 14.2% |
| 12.48 | Deportivo Alavés | 0 | 0 | 48 | 0.1% | 3.5% | 10.8% | 15.1% |
| 12.79 | Elche CF | 0 | 0 | 47 | <0.1% | 2.9% | 9.3% | 16.3% |
| 13.36 | Málaga CF | 0 | 0 | 46 | <0.1% | 2.0% | 7.5% | 20.4% |
| 13.39 | Real Racing Club de Santander | 0 | 0 | 46 | <0.1% | 2.1% | 7.6% | 21.2% |
| 13.39 | RC Deportivo La Coruña | 0 | 0 | 46 | <0.1% | 1.8% | 7.3% | 20.5% |
| 14.11 | Athletic Club | 0 | 0 | 45 | 0% | 1.6% | 5.3% | 26.0% |
| 14.24 | Sevilla FC | 0 | 0 | 45 | <0.1% | 1.0% | 4.7% | 26.3% |
| 15.96 | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 41 | 0% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 43.8% |
| 17.86 | CA Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 37 | 0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 69.1% |
Every club carries an Elo rating that moves only with results — beat a stronger side and it rises, drop points to a weaker one and it falls. A Poisson goal model (the same engine behind our football totals and handicap predictions, with a shots-on-target-based xG proxy) turns the two teams' ratings into a full scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture.
We then play out the rest of the season 10,000 times, drawing a result for every fixture from those distributions and re-building the table each time. The percentages above are simple counts across those simulated seasons: how often a club finished first, in the top four, in a European spot, or in the relegation places.
The model only knows results and shot data — it cannot see transfers, injuries, managerial changes or squad depth until they show up in performances, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level. Probabilities are estimates, not promises: a 5% relegation chance still happens one season in twenty. We publish the projections in full; the value bets our model finds on individual matches are part of the paid plans and are never shown here.