Season Hub

La Liga 2026-27 Season Predictions — Projected Table & Title Odds

Q: How do you calculate the La Liga projection?

Every club carries a results-driven Elo rating; a Poisson goal model turns both teams' ratings into a scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture. We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times and count how often each club wins the title, finishes in Europe, or gets relegated.

Q: How often is the table updated?

The pre-season projection is frozen shortly before matchday 1 and kept unchanged all season as a reference point. The live projection re-simulates nightly as results come in.

Q: Does the model account for transfers or injuries?

No — the model only knows results and shot data. Squad depth, managerial changes and injuries only show up once they show up in results, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level.

Q: Is this the same model behind your La Liga value bets?

Yes — the same Elo and Poisson engine also powers our value bets on individual matches. This table projection is entirely free; the value bets on individual matches are part of the paid plans.

La Liga is usually framed as a two-horse race, but the numbers tell a subtler story: Real Madrid and Barcelona set the pace, Atlético hover in between, and a tactical, low-scoring mid-table makes goal totals and margins tighter than in England or Germany. Our Poisson goal model is built for exactly that scoring environment; combined with Elo ratings updated after every match, it re-simulates the remaining fixtures 10,000 times to put honest percentages on the title race, the top four and the relegation battle.

Live projectionLatest simulation: 16 Oct 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs over the remaining fixtures

Pos	Team	Pld	Pts	Proj Pts	Title %	Top 4 %	Europe %	Releg. %
1.04	FC Barcelona	8	24	98	96.7%	100.0%	100.0%	0%
2.54	Real Madrid CF	8	18	81	2.0%	98.7%	>99.9%	0%
2.81	Club Atlético de Madrid	8	19	79	1.3%	97.7%	99.9%	0%
4.05	Real Betis Balompié	8	19	71	0.1%	77.8%	96.7%	0%
6.54	Sevilla FC	8	14	60	0%	9.8%	59.1%	0%
6.66	Deportivo Alavés	8	11	59	0%	9.5%	56.9%	<0.1%
7.97	Athletic Club	6	8	55	0%	3.2%	32.1%	0.1%
9.17	Real Sociedad de Fútbol	8	13	52	0%	1.3%	18.1%	0.5%
9.56	RC Deportivo La Coruña	8	10	51	0%	0.9%	14.3%	0.6%
10.29	Villarreal CF	8	8	49	0%	0.5%	10.0%	1.0%
11.27	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	8	8	47	0%	0.3%	5.3%	2.6%
11.42	RC Celta de Vigo	8	8	47	0%	0.2%	4.9%	2.7%
13.96	CA Osasuna	8	8	42	0%	0.1%	0.9%	12.3%
14.17	Levante UD	7	6	41	0%	<0.1%	0.8%	14.1%
14.2	Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	7	8	41	0%	<0.1%	0.5%	14.1%
15.43	Elche CF	8	6	38	0%	<0.1%	0.2%	26.2%
15.55	Real Racing Club de Santander	8	8	38	0%	0%	0.2%	27.6%
15.87	Getafe CF	8	8	37	0%	0%	0.1%	30.8%
18.36	Valencia CF	8	5	30	0%	0%	<0.1%	77.1%
19.15	Málaga CF	8	4	27	0%	0%	0%	90.1%

Compare with our pre-season snapshot

The frozen projection from before matchday 1 — kept unchanged all season so you can judge how the model's pre-season read held up.

Pos	Team	Pld	Pts	Proj Pts	Title %	Top 4 %	Europe %	Releg. %
1.57	FC Barcelona	8	24	78	60.7%	98.7%	99.8%	0%
2.18	Real Madrid CF	8	18	74	31.6%	94.9%	98.5%	0%
4.47	Valencia CF	8	5	64	4.8%	63.8%	82.2%	0.1%
6.06	Club Atlético de Madrid	8	19	60	1.5%	40.8%	65.0%	0.5%
7.62	Villarreal CF	8	8	56	0.5%	23.7%	47.0%	1.6%
8.21	Getafe CF	8	8	55	0.4%	19.5%	40.8%	2.1%
9.3	Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	7	8	53	0.2%	12.9%	30.7%	3.9%
9.78	Levante UD	7	6	52	0.1%	10.3%	26.4%	5.0%
10.33	RC Celta de Vigo	8	8	51	0.1%	8.5%	22.3%	6.6%
10.55	Real Betis Balompié	8	19	51	0.1%	8.2%	21.6%	7.2%
12.33	Real Sociedad de Fútbol	8	13	48	0%	3.3%	10.9%	14.2%
12.48	Deportivo Alavés	8	11	48	0.1%	3.5%	10.8%	15.1%
12.79	Elche CF	8	6	47	<0.1%	2.9%	9.3%	16.3%
13.36	Málaga CF	8	4	46	<0.1%	2.0%	7.5%	20.4%
13.39	Real Racing Club de Santander	8	8	46	<0.1%	2.1%	7.6%	21.2%
13.39	RC Deportivo La Coruña	8	10	46	<0.1%	1.8%	7.3%	20.5%
14.11	Athletic Club	6	8	45	0%	1.6%	5.3%	26.0%
14.24	Sevilla FC	8	14	45	<0.1%	1.0%	4.7%	26.3%
15.96	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	8	8	41	0%	0.5%	2.0%	43.8%
17.86	CA Osasuna	8	8	37	0%	0.1%	0.4%	69.1%

Next 7 days

RC Deportivo La Coruña vs Levante UDFri 16 Oct, 19:00
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs Club Atlético de MadridSat 17 Oct, 12:00
Villarreal CF vs Elche CFSat 17 Oct, 14:15
Real Betis Balompié vs FC BarcelonaSat 17 Oct, 16:30
Valencia CF vs Athletic ClubSat 17 Oct, 19:00
CA Osasuna vs Real Racing Club de SantanderSun 18 Oct, 12:00
RC Celta de Vigo vs Deportivo AlavésSun 18 Oct, 14:15
Málaga CF vs Real Sociedad de FútbolSun 18 Oct, 16:30
Real Madrid CF vs Sevilla FCSun 18 Oct, 19:00
Getafe CF vs Rayo Vallecano de MadridMon 19 Oct, 19:00

Club Elo ratings

Every club's current Elo — the same rating our model reads at predict time; higher = stronger, and it moves only with results.

Rank	Club	Elo	Trend
1	FC Barcelona	1837	36
2	Barcelona	1812	19
3	Real Madrid	1800	15
4	Real Madrid CF	1795	31
5	Ath Madrid	1708	10
6	Villarreal	1706	75
7	Real Betis Balompié	1696	67
8	Ath Bilbao	1693	17
9	Club Atlético de Madrid	1689	65
10	Betis	1636	11
11	Villarreal CF	1597	16
12	Osasuna	1593	39
13	Celta	1589	34
14	Vallecano	1573	38
15	Valencia	1573	5
16	Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	1557	9
17	Real Sociedad de Fútbol	1546	52
18	Alaves	1543	48
19	Sevilla FC	1533	15
20	Getafe CF	1533	22
21	RC Celta de Vigo	1530	8
22	Sociedad	1528	24
23	Valencia CF	1527	46
24	Leganes	1515	33
25	Espanol	1515	48
26	Levante	1515	46
27	Deportivo Alavés	1514	13
28	Compostela	1513	36
29	RC Deportivo La Coruña	1512	13
30	Mallorca	1510	37
31	Levante UD	1509	2
32	Athletic Club	1498	24
33	Girona	1496	9
34	Real Racing Club de Santander	1493	2
35	Extremadura	1492	6
36	Sevilla	1491	26
37	RCD Mallorca	1490	7
38	Getafe	1487	35
39	Huesca	1483	7
40	Xerez	1483	25
41	Elche CF	1480	14
42	Girona FC	1477	36
43	Oviedo	1476	19
44	Cadiz	1470	15
45	Málaga CF	1462	28
46	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	1460	28
47	Sp Gijon	1457	41
48	Merida	1452	16
49	Tenerife	1450	16
50	Elche	1448	55
51	CA Osasuna	1446	20
52	Eibar	1440	20
53	La Coruna	1440	6
54	Gimnastic	1430	17
55	Numancia	1427	11
56	Zaragoza	1426	5
57	Real Oviedo	1420	53
58	Almeria	1420	25
59	Lerida	1419	60
60	Recreativo	1416	51
61	Las Palmas	1412	72
62	Hercules	1409	6
63	Albacete	1398	8
64	Santander	1383	33
65	Murcia	1381	38
66	Malaga	1381	23
67	Granada	1375	18
68	Salamanca	1364	27
69	Cordoba	1339	57
70	Logrones	1325	11
71	Valladolid	1310	39

71 clubs

2025-26 final table

The last completed season, for context while the new campaign is thin on games.

Pos	Team	Pld	Pts	GD
1	FC Barcelona	38	94	+59
2	Real Madrid CF	38	86	+42
3	Villarreal CF	38	72	+26
4	Club Atlético de Madrid	38	69	+18
5	Real Betis Balompié	38	60	+11
6	RC Celta de Vigo	38	54	+5
7	Getafe CF	38	51	-6
8	Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	38	50	-3
9	Valencia CF	38	49	-9
10	Real Sociedad de Fútbol	38	46	-2
11	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	38	46	-12
12	Athletic Club	38	45	-15
13	Elche CF	38	43	-8
14	Deportivo Alavés	38	43	-12
15	Sevilla FC	38	43	-14
16	CA Osasuna	38	42	-6
17	RCD Mallorca	38	42	-10
18	Levante UD	38	42	-14
19	Girona FC	38	41	-16
20	Real Oviedo	38	29	-34

How these projections work

Every club carries an Elo rating that moves only with results — beat a stronger side and it rises, drop points to a weaker one and it falls. A Poisson goal model (the same engine behind our football totals and handicap predictions, with a shots-on-target-based xG proxy) turns the two teams' ratings into a full scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture.

We then play out the rest of the season 10,000 times, drawing a result for every fixture from those distributions and re-building the table each time. The percentages above are simple counts across those simulated seasons: how often a club finished first, in the top four, in a European spot, or in the relegation places.

Honest limitations

The model only knows results and shot data — it cannot see transfers, injuries, managerial changes or squad depth until they show up in performances, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level. Probabilities are estimates, not promises: a 5% relegation chance still happens one season in twenty. We publish the projections in full; the value bets our model finds on individual matches are part of the paid plans and are never shown here.

Our track record in this league

3 settled value bets on La Liga matches so far.

Win rate

66.7%

Result (units)

+1.72u

Avg. closing-line value

+1.15pp

See the full public track record

Go deeper

Related guides

Frequently asked questions

How do you calculate the La Liga projection?

Every club carries a results-driven Elo rating; a Poisson goal model turns both teams' ratings into a scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture. We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times and count how often each club wins the title, finishes in Europe, or gets relegated.

How often is the table updated?

The pre-season projection is frozen shortly before matchday 1 and kept unchanged all season as a reference point. The live projection re-simulates nightly as results come in.

Does the model account for transfers or injuries?

No — the model only knows results and shot data. Squad depth, managerial changes and injuries only show up once they show up in results, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level.

Is this the same model behind your La Liga value bets?

Yes — the same Elo and Poisson engine also powers our value bets on individual matches. This table projection is entirely free; the value bets on individual matches are part of the paid plans.