Our NFL season predictor simulates the full 2026 season 10,000× to estimate every team's playoff odds, division title chances, and Super Bowl probability. Predictions are free — value bets are part of our All-Access plan.
| # | Team | Playoffs | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle Seahawks | 83.9% | 14.3% |
| 2 | Los Angeles Rams | 79.5% | 11.7% |
| 3 | New England Patriots | 80.2% | 11.0% |
| 4 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 74.9% | 8.3% |
| 5 | Buffalo Bills | 68.1% | 6.7% |
| 6 | Houston Texans | 69.5% | 6.1% |
| 7 | Detroit Lions | 65.3% | 5.1% |
| 8 | Denver Broncos | 64.3% | 4.6% |
| 9 | Philadelphia Eagles | 61.2% | 4.0% |
| 10 | Indianapolis Colts | 57.8% | 3.3% |
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations · last updated 18 Jul 2026
| Team | Proj W | Div title | Playoffs | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 10.5 | 55.2% | 80.2% | 11.0% |
| Buffalo Bills | 9.8 | 37.1% | 68.1% | 6.7% |
| Miami Dolphins | 7.1 | 6.3% | 18.1% | 0.3% |
| New York Jets | 5.7 | 1.4% | 5.5% |
| Team | Proj W | Div title | Playoffs | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 9.3 | 49.6% | 61.2% | 4.0% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 7.9 | 20.6% | 31.5% | 0.9% |
| New York Giants | 7.7 | 17.8% | 27.3% | 0.8% |
| Washington Commanders | 7.1 | 12.0% | 19.1% |
Live odds update as results come in.
NFL is a spread + totals market. Once the season runs, every finished game's pre-game spread and total prediction is scored here with a Brier score — no cherry-picking, wins and misses alike.
Season starts Sep 10 — every game's spread & total prediction will be scored here, win or lose.
Our transparent NFL bet record: settled bets are always public — pending picks are members-only.
NFL value bets go live around the 2026 season kickoff. Every settled bet will be tracked here publicly — wins and losses alike.
We simulate the complete 2026 NFL schedule 10,000 times with Monte Carlo methods. Each team's power rating drives per-game win probabilities, and the simulation aggregates them into projected wins, playoff odds, division titles, seeds and Super Bowl probability.
Preseason projections stand until Week 1 (September 2026); once the season runs, the simulation reruns as results come in, so playoff and Super Bowl odds always reflect the current standings.
Power ratings from prior-season results; not adjusted for off-season roster moves. Approximate playoff tiebreakers. For entertainment purposes — 18+.
| 0.0% |
| Team | Proj W | Div title | Playoffs | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 9.1 | 38.6% | 55.6% | 2.9% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.7 | 30.5% | 47.1% | 1.8% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 7.7 | 16.2% | 29.0% | 0.6% |
| Cleveland Browns | 7.6 | 14.6% | 26.3% | 0.4% |
| Team | Proj W | Div title | Playoffs | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 10.3 | 41.0% | 74.9% | 8.3% |
| Houston Texans | 10.0 | 35.2% | 69.5% | 6.1% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9.4 | 22.6% | 57.8% | 3.3% |
| Tennessee Titans | 5.8 | 1.3% | 6.0% | 0.1% |
| Team | Proj W | Div title | Playoffs | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 9.6 | 45.5% | 64.3% | 4.6% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 8.8 | 28.1% | 48.5% | 2.2% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 8.5 | 23.9% | 43.2% | 1.8% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 5.7 | 2.5% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 0.3% |
| Team | Proj W | Div title | Playoffs | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 9.8 | 40.7% | 65.3% | 5.1% |
| Green Bay Packers | 8.8 | 21.2% | 45.1% | 2.2% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.7 | 19.3% | 42.2% | 1.9% |
| Chicago Bears | 8.6 | 18.8% | 40.9% | 1.8% |
| Team | Proj W | Div title | Playoffs | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8.3 | 29.6% | 40.9% | 1.2% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 8.2 | 27.2% | 37.8% | 1.0% |
| New Orleans Saints | 8.1 | 24.9% | 35.5% | 0.8% |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.6 | 18.3% | 27.0% | 0.6% |
| Team | Proj W | Div title | Playoffs | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 11.0 | 45.1% | 83.9% | 14.3% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 10.7 | 38.6% | 79.5% | 11.7% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 9.3 | 14.9% | 53.4% | 3.3% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 6.5 | 1.3% | 9.3% | 0.1% |
From prior-season results via an Elo-style rating system — the same data-first approach behind our betting model. They are deliberately not adjusted for off-season roster speculation.
Yes. Once the season starts, every finished game's pre-game spread and totals prediction is scored on this page with a Brier score — wins and misses alike, no cherry-picking.