Season Hub

EFL Championship 2026-27 Season Predictions — Projected Table & Title Odds

Q: How do you calculate the EFL Championship projection?

Every club carries a results-driven Elo rating; a Poisson goal model turns both teams' ratings into a scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture. We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times and count how often each club wins the title, finishes in Europe, or gets relegated.

Q: How often is the table updated?

The pre-season projection is frozen shortly before matchday 1 and kept unchanged all season as a reference point. The live projection re-simulates nightly as results come in.

Q: Does the model account for transfers or injuries?

No — the model only knows results and shot data. Squad depth, managerial changes and injuries only show up once they show up in results, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level.

Q: Is this the same model behind your EFL Championship value bets?

Yes — the same Elo and Poisson engine also powers our value bets on individual matches. This table projection is entirely free; the value bets on individual matches are part of the paid plans.

The EFL Championship is famously the hardest league in Europe to predict: 46 rounds, relegated Premier League squads colliding with promoted upstarts, and a playoff lottery at the top. That chaos is measurable — our Elo ratings and Poisson goal model quantify how compressed the field really is, and 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule show how wide the plausible outcomes are for every club, from automatic promotion to the drop zone.

Live projectionLatest simulation: 29 Aug 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs over the remaining fixtures

Pos	Team	Pld	Pts	Proj Pts	Title %	Top 4 %	Europe %	Releg. %
1.69	Millwall FC	3	6	96	62.6%	96.1%	99.0%	0%
3.12	West Bromwich Albion FC	2	6	88	20.2%	79.9%	92.2%	0%
5.08	Charlton Athletic FC	3	9	81	5.1%	49.9%	73.2%	0%
5.29	Queens Park Rangers FC	3	7	81	4.5%	46.5%	70.7%	0%
5.5	Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	2	4	80	3.8%	43.6%	68.3%	0%
6.8	Bolton Wanderers FC	3	4	77	1.8%	26.5%	51.7%	0%
7.79	Swansea City AFC	2	4	74	0.9%	18.6%	39.0%	0%
8.58	Watford FC	3	5	72	0.5%	13.0%	30.0%	<0.1%
9.86	Blackburn Rovers FC	3	4	69	0.2%	7.2%	19.4%	<0.1%
10.03	Southampton FC	3	6	69	0.2%	6.7%	18.3%	<0.1%
10.82	Birmingham City FC	3	5	67	0.1%	4.3%	12.6%	0.1%
10.86	Middlesbrough FC	2	3	67	0.1%	4.3%	12.6%	0.1%
12.21	Sheffield United FC	3	3	64	<0.1%	1.9%	6.5%	0.3%
13.9	Portsmouth FC	3	3	60	0%	0.6%	2.5%	0.9%
14.29	Cardiff City FC	3	3	59	<0.1%	0.6%	2.2%	1.2%
15.48	West Ham United FC	3	2	56	0%	0.2%	0.9%	2.9%
16.6	Wrexham AFC	3	2	54	0%	0.1%	0.4%	5.4%
17.5	Derby County FC	2	1	51	0%	<0.1%	0.2%	9.0%
18.91	Burnley FC	3	1	48	0%	0%	<0.1%	18.8%
19.5	Stoke City FC	2	0	46	0%	0%	<0.1%	25.6%
20.52	Bristol City FC	3	4	43	0%	0%	<0.1%	39.4%
21.23	Lincoln City FC	3	3	40	0%	0%	0%	52.7%
21.59	Preston North End FC	3	0	39	0%	0%	0%	60.2%
22.85	Norwich City FC	3	3	34	0%	0%	0%	83.4%

Compare with our pre-season snapshot

The frozen projection from before matchday 1 — kept unchanged all season so you can judge how the model's pre-season read held up.

Pos	Team	Pld	Pts	Proj Pts	Title %	Top 4 %	Europe %	Releg. %
2.67	West Ham United FC	3	2	82	45.2%	84.4%	91.9%	<0.1%
4.66	Southampton FC	3	6	76	17.8%	61.9%	76.5%	0.1%
4.87	Stoke City FC	2	0	76	16.4%	59.5%	74.5%	0.1%
8.25	Millwall FC	3	6	69	4.5%	29.3%	45.2%	1.2%
9.52	Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	2	4	67	2.5%	20.9%	35.3%	2.1%
9.94	Wrexham AFC	3	2	66	2.1%	18.7%	32.0%	2.5%
11	Derby County FC	2	1	65	1.5%	14.1%	25.6%	4.0%
11.19	Middlesbrough FC	2	3	65	1.5%	13.5%	24.9%	3.8%
11.38	Cardiff City FC	3	3	64	1.4%	12.9%	23.2%	4.1%
11.43	Lincoln City FC	3	3	64	1.1%	12.7%	23.5%	4.7%
11.46	Bolton Wanderers FC	3	4	64	1.3%	12.5%	23.0%	4.7%
11.73	West Bromwich Albion FC	2	6	64	1.1%	11.1%	21.3%	4.9%
11.75	Norwich City FC	3	3	64	1.1%	12.2%	22.4%	5.1%
12.47	Sheffield United FC	3	3	63	0.8%	9.3%	18.8%	6.4%
12.8	Burnley FC	3	1	62	0.7%	8.1%	17.1%	7.3%
13.8	Swansea City AFC	2	4	61	0.5%	5.8%	12.3%	9.2%
14.86	Watford FC	3	5	59	0.3%	4.4%	9.9%	13.6%
15.92	Blackburn Rovers FC	3	4	57	0.1%	2.4%	6.5%	18.0%
17.17	Portsmouth FC	3	3	55	0.1%	1.6%	4.0%	24.4%
17.31	Birmingham City FC	3	5	55	0.1%	1.5%	3.8%	25.3%
17.72	Bristol City FC	3	4	54	<0.1%	1.4%	3.5%	29.4%
18.57	Queens Park Rangers FC	3	7	53	0.1%	0.9%	2.2%	35.4%
18.67	Preston North End FC	3	0	53	<0.1%	0.8%	2.3%	36.1%
20.87	Charlton Athletic FC	3	9	48	<0.1%	0.1%	0.4%	57.6%

Next 7 days

Preston North End FC vs Bristol City FCTue 01 Sept, 18:45
West Ham United FC vs Wolverhampton Wanderers FCTue 01 Sept, 18:45
Lincoln City FC vs Blackburn Rovers FCTue 01 Sept, 18:45
Sheffield United FC vs Bolton Wanderers FCTue 01 Sept, 18:45
Portsmouth FC vs Derby County FCTue 01 Sept, 18:45
Swansea City AFC vs Watford FCTue 01 Sept, 18:45
Stoke City FC vs Norwich City FCTue 01 Sept, 19:00
Birmingham City FC vs Southampton FCTue 01 Sept, 19:00
West Bromwich Albion FC vs Charlton Athletic FCWed 02 Sept, 18:45
Millwall FC vs Wrexham AFCWed 02 Sept, 18:45

Club Elo ratings

Every club's current Elo — the same rating our model reads at predict time; higher = stronger, and it moves only with results.

Rank	Club	Elo	Trend
1	Brighton	1729	46
2	Burnley	1707	24
3	Nott'm Forest	1692	19
4	Newcastle	1677	19
5	Man City	1671	44
6	Leeds	1661	49
7	Wolves	1621	7
8	Stoke City FC	1608	180
9	Brentford	1608	40
10	Crystal Palace FC	1607	29
11	Sheffield United FC	1587	29
12	Coventry City FC	1581	18
13	Bournemouth	1580	54
14	Aston Villa	1580	17
15	Southampton FC	1570	33
16	Ipswich	1568	11
17	Hull City AFC	1566	104
18	Ipswich Town FC	1565	37
19	West Ham United FC	1560	34
20	Fulham	1553	35
21	West Bromwich Albion FC	1549	2
22	Blackburn	1545	49
23	Millwall FC	1543	2
24	Swansea City AFC	1534	9
25	Middlesbrough FC	1532	44
26	Coventry	1497	6
27	Wrexham AFC	1486	28
28	Leicester	1483	19
29	Sheffield Wednesday FC	1482	126
30	Bristol City FC	1480	6
31	Leicester City FC	1473	2
32	Queens Park Rangers FC	1470	12
33	Norwich City FC	1469	14
34	Oxford United FC	1465	48
35	Derby County FC	1462	23
36	Watford FC	1462	18
37	Blackburn Rovers FC	1447	3
38	Sunderland	1442	100
39	Gillingham	1439	1
40	Birmingham City FC	1436	61
41	Luton	1433	21
42	Charlton Athletic FC	1432	60
43	Norwich	1425	27
44	Wycombe	1423	39
45	Oxford	1417	16
46	Bury	1411	40
47	Derby	1407	35
48	Hull	1406	28
49	Portsmouth FC	1404	6
50	Notts County	1401	8
51	Crewe	1397	57
52	Plymouth	1397	32
53	Oldham	1396	2
54	Portsmouth	1387	8
55	Preston	1385	54
56	Preston North End FC	1381	46
57	Wigan	1380	9
58	Burton	1378	34
59	Walsall	1377	42
60	Yeovil	1365	42
61	Huddersfield	1362	18
62	Birmingham	1359	55
63	Cardiff	1359	32
64	Doncaster	1359	44
65	Colchester	1358	4
66	Reading	1357	12
67	Scunthorpe	1350	3
68	Swindon	1349	14
69	Blackpool	1349	34
70	Peterboro	1349	45
71	Milton Keynes Dons	1345	39
72	Southend	1345	49
73	Grimsby	1343	40
74	Port Vale	1323	27
75	Tranmere	1322	20
76	Wimbledon	1298	19
77	Stockport	1298	12
78	Barnsley	1298	51
79	Bradford	1289	30
80	Rotherham	1264	7
81	Bolton	1248	47

81 clubs

2025-26 final table

The last completed season, for context while the new campaign is thin on games.

Pos	Team	Pld	Pts	GD
1	Coventry City FC	11	30	+22
2	Southampton FC	15	30	+16
3	Millwall FC	14	27	+10
4	Hull City AFC	16	25	+1
5	Ipswich Town FC	13	24	+10
6	Norwich City FC	12	23	+8
7	Wrexham AFC	13	23	+3
8	Middlesbrough FC	14	20	+9
9	Derby County FC	12	18	-1
10	Swansea City AFC	12	18	-2
11	Birmingham City FC	13	18	-2
12	West Bromwich Albion FC	12	17	+5
13	Sheffield United FC	12	15	0
14	Oxford United FC	12	15	0
15	Blackburn Rovers FC	11	14	-3
16	Leicester City FC	12	13	-2
17	Charlton Athletic FC	12	13	-3
18	Portsmouth FC	12	12	-8
19	Queens Park Rangers FC	12	12	-9
20	Bristol City FC	12	11	-6
21	Stoke City FC	12	11	-8
22	Watford FC	12	11	-13
23	Preston North End FC	12	8	-12
24	Portsmouth FC	3	7	+3
25	Southampton FC	2	6	+5
26	Ipswich Town FC	3	6	+1
27	Sheffield Wednesday FC	12	5	-15
28	Oxford United FC	2	4	+2
29	Preston North End FC	2	4	+1
30	Swansea City AFC	2	4	+1
31	Bristol City FC	2	4	+1
32	Derby County FC	2	3	+1
33	Blackburn Rovers FC	3	3	0
34	Sheffield United FC	2	3	0
35	Coventry City FC	3	3	0
36	Norwich City FC	2	3	-1
37	Queens Park Rangers FC	2	2	0
38	Sheffield Wednesday FC	2	2	0
39	West Bromwich Albion FC	2	2	0
40	Middlesbrough FC	2	1	-1
41	Charlton Athletic FC	2	1	-1
42	Hull City AFC	2	1	-1
43	Leicester City FC	2	1	-1
44	Millwall FC	2	1	-1
45	Stoke City FC	2	1	-2
46	Watford FC	2	1	-2
47	Birmingham City FC	1	0	-1
48	Wrexham AFC	1	0	-4

How these projections work

Every club carries an Elo rating that moves only with results — beat a stronger side and it rises, drop points to a weaker one and it falls. A Poisson goal model (the same engine behind our football totals and handicap predictions, with a shots-on-target-based xG proxy) turns the two teams' ratings into a full scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture.

We then play out the rest of the season 10,000 times, drawing a result for every fixture from those distributions and re-building the table each time. The percentages above are simple counts across those simulated seasons: how often a club finished first, in the top four, in a European spot, or in the relegation places.

Honest limitations

The model only knows results and shot data — it cannot see transfers, injuries, managerial changes or squad depth until they show up in performances, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level. Probabilities are estimates, not promises: a 5% relegation chance still happens one season in twenty. We publish the projections in full; the value bets our model finds on individual matches are part of the paid plans and are never shown here.

Our track record in this league

33 settled value bets on EFL Championship matches so far.

Win rate

34.8%

Result (units)

-4.23u

Avg. closing-line value

+4.55pp

See the full public track record

Go deeper

Related guides

Frequently asked questions

How do you calculate the EFL Championship projection?

Every club carries a results-driven Elo rating; a Poisson goal model turns both teams' ratings into a scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture. We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times and count how often each club wins the title, finishes in Europe, or gets relegated.

How often is the table updated?

The pre-season projection is frozen shortly before matchday 1 and kept unchanged all season as a reference point. The live projection re-simulates nightly as results come in.

Does the model account for transfers or injuries?

No — the model only knows results and shot data. Squad depth, managerial changes and injuries only show up once they show up in results, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level.

Is this the same model behind your EFL Championship value bets?

Yes — the same Elo and Poisson engine also powers our value bets on individual matches. This table projection is entirely free; the value bets on individual matches are part of the paid plans.