Season Hub

EFL Championship 2026-27 Season Predictions — Projected Table & Title Odds

Q: How do you calculate the EFL Championship projection?

Every club carries a results-driven Elo rating; a Poisson goal model turns both teams' ratings into a scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture. We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times and count how often each club wins the title, finishes in Europe, or gets relegated.

Q: How often is the table updated?

The pre-season projection is frozen shortly before matchday 1 and kept unchanged all season as a reference point. The live projection re-simulates nightly as results come in.

Q: Does the model account for transfers or injuries?

No — the model only knows results and shot data. Squad depth, managerial changes and injuries only show up once they show up in results, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level.

Q: Is this the same model behind your EFL Championship value bets?

Yes — the same Elo and Poisson engine also powers our value bets on individual matches. This table projection is entirely free; the value bets on individual matches are part of the paid plans.

The EFL Championship is famously the hardest league in Europe to predict: 46 rounds, relegated Premier League squads colliding with promoted upstarts, and a playoff lottery at the top. That chaos is measurable — our Elo ratings and Poisson goal model quantify how compressed the field really is, and 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule show how wide the plausible outcomes are for every club, from automatic promotion to the drop zone.

Live projectionLatest simulation: 16 Oct 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs over the remaining fixtures

Pos	Team	Pld	Pts	Proj Pts	Title %	Top 4 %	Europe %	Releg. %
2.33	Swansea City AFC	9	20	90	37.5%	91.1%	98.1%	0%
2.48	West Ham United FC	9	16	89	32.6%	89.9%	97.9%	0%
3.17	Southampton FC	8	14	86	18.4%	80.4%	94.5%	0%
4.23	Middlesbrough FC	9	18	82	8.4%	62.6%	85.9%	0%
6.07	Queens Park Rangers FC	9	14	76	1.5%	30.3%	63.8%	0%
7.4	Birmingham City FC	9	14	73	0.7%	16.6%	44.9%	<0.1%
8.2	Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	8	14	71	0.4%	11.9%	35.4%	<0.1%
9.33	West Bromwich Albion FC	9	14	69	0.2%	6.1%	23.1%	0.1%
10.29	Stoke City FC	9	16	67	0.1%	4.1%	16.7%	0.1%
11.04	Millwall FC	9	14	65	0.1%	2.6%	12.7%	0.3%
11.79	Blackburn Rovers FC	9	12	64	<0.1%	1.6%	8.2%	0.4%
12.73	Bristol City FC	9	14	62	<0.1%	1.0%	5.2%	0.7%
13.52	Charlton Athletic FC	9	13	61	0%	0.6%	3.5%	1.1%
13.87	Sheffield United FC	9	12	60	<0.1%	0.4%	3.0%	1.8%
14.81	Portsmouth FC	7	8	58	<0.1%	0.3%	1.9%	2.8%
14.92	Cardiff City FC	9	7	57	<0.1%	0.2%	2.0%	2.8%
15.23	Bolton Wanderers FC	9	10	57	<0.1%	0.2%	1.5%	2.9%
16.08	Norwich City FC	9	9	55	0%	0.1%	1.0%	5.3%
16.82	Wrexham AFC	9	11	54	0%	<0.1%	0.6%	8.0%
19.02	Burnley FC	9	7	49	0%	<0.1%	0.1%	21.7%
20.21	Lincoln City FC	9	11	46	0%	0%	<0.1%	36.4%
21.03	Watford FC	9	8	44	0%	0%	0%	50.8%
22.24	Derby County FC	9	6	39	0%	0%	0%	74.2%
23.18	Preston North End FC	9	4	35	0%	0%	0%	90.5%

Compare with our pre-season snapshot

The frozen projection from before matchday 1 — kept unchanged all season so you can judge how the model's pre-season read held up.

Pos	Team	Pld	Pts	Proj Pts	Title %	Top 4 %	Europe %	Releg. %
2.67	West Ham United FC	9	16	82	45.2%	84.4%	91.9%	<0.1%
4.66	Southampton FC	8	14	76	17.8%	61.9%	76.5%	0.1%
4.87	Stoke City FC	9	16	76	16.4%	59.5%	74.5%	0.1%
8.25	Millwall FC	9	14	69	4.5%	29.3%	45.2%	1.2%
9.52	Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	8	14	67	2.5%	20.9%	35.3%	2.1%
9.94	Wrexham AFC	9	11	66	2.1%	18.7%	32.0%	2.5%
11	Derby County FC	9	6	65	1.5%	14.1%	25.6%	4.0%
11.19	Middlesbrough FC	9	18	65	1.5%	13.5%	24.9%	3.8%
11.38	Cardiff City FC	9	7	64	1.4%	12.9%	23.2%	4.1%
11.43	Lincoln City FC	9	11	64	1.1%	12.7%	23.5%	4.7%
11.46	Bolton Wanderers FC	9	10	64	1.3%	12.5%	23.0%	4.7%
11.73	West Bromwich Albion FC	9	14	64	1.1%	11.1%	21.3%	4.9%
11.75	Norwich City FC	9	9	64	1.1%	12.2%	22.4%	5.1%
12.47	Sheffield United FC	9	12	63	0.8%	9.3%	18.8%	6.4%
12.8	Burnley FC	9	7	62	0.7%	8.1%	17.1%	7.3%
13.8	Swansea City AFC	9	20	61	0.5%	5.8%	12.3%	9.2%
14.86	Watford FC	9	8	59	0.3%	4.4%	9.9%	13.6%
15.92	Blackburn Rovers FC	9	12	57	0.1%	2.4%	6.5%	18.0%
17.17	Portsmouth FC	7	8	55	0.1%	1.6%	4.0%	24.4%
17.31	Birmingham City FC	9	14	55	0.1%	1.5%	3.8%	25.3%
17.72	Bristol City FC	9	14	54	<0.1%	1.4%	3.5%	29.4%
18.57	Queens Park Rangers FC	9	14	53	0.1%	0.9%	2.2%	35.4%
18.67	Preston North End FC	9	4	53	<0.1%	0.8%	2.3%	36.1%
20.87	Charlton Athletic FC	9	13	48	<0.1%	0.1%	0.4%	57.6%

Next 7 days

Burnley FC vs Wolverhampton Wanderers FCFri 16 Oct, 19:00
Millwall FC vs Lincoln City FCSat 17 Oct, 11:30
Middlesbrough FC vs Cardiff City FCSat 17 Oct, 11:30
Watford FC vs Charlton Athletic FCSat 17 Oct, 11:30
Derby County FC vs Stoke City FCSat 17 Oct, 14:00
Swansea City AFC vs West Ham United FCSat 17 Oct, 14:00
West Bromwich Albion FC vs Blackburn Rovers FCSat 17 Oct, 14:00
Wrexham AFC vs Preston North End FCSat 17 Oct, 14:00
Norwich City FC vs Portsmouth FCSat 17 Oct, 14:00
Southampton FC vs Bolton Wanderers FCSat 17 Oct, 14:00

Club Elo ratings

Every club's current Elo — the same rating our model reads at predict time; higher = stronger, and it moves only with results.

Rank	Club	Elo	Trend
1	Brighton & Hove Albion FC	1773	47
2	Leeds United FC	1737	17
3	Burnley	1723	25
4	Newcastle	1702	19
5	Man City	1671	44
6	Nottingham Forest FC	1669	38
7	Crystal Palace FC	1669	3
8	West Ham United FC	1658	35
9	Brentford	1620	40
10	Coventry City FC	1620	4
11	Ipswich Town FC	1619	29
12	Southampton FC	1603	33
13	Aston Villa	1598	17
14	Bournemouth	1595	53
15	Hull City AFC	1583	54
16	Middlesbrough FC	1580	50
17	Swansea City AFC	1578	54
18	Fulham	1569	35
19	Blackburn	1557	49
20	Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	1544	22
21	Millwall FC	1535	29
22	Birmingham City FC	1522	34
23	Coventry	1512	6
24	Wrexham AFC	1501	7
25	Bolton Wanderers FC	1488	3
26	West Bromwich Albion FC	1482	18
27	Queens Park Rangers FC	1474	26
28	Lincoln City FC	1472	13
29	Blackburn Rovers FC	1469	26
30	Burnley FC	1468	17
31	Sunderland	1458	100
32	Bristol City FC	1456	3
33	Norwich City FC	1456	45
34	Cardiff City FC	1453	45
35	Sheffield United FC	1453	16
36	Portsmouth FC	1452	12
37	Luton	1448	21
38	Gillingham	1439	1
39	Stoke City FC	1434	91
40	Wycombe	1433	39
41	Oxford	1430	16
42	Charlton Athletic FC	1427	30
43	Derby County FC	1426	35
44	Derby	1422	35
45	Hull	1421	28
46	Oxford United FC	1415	11
47	Leicester City FC	1414	4
48	Plymouth	1412	32
49	Bury	1411	40
50	Notts County	1401	8
51	Preston	1400	54
52	Crewe	1397	57
53	Oldham	1396	2
54	Portsmouth	1396	8
55	Burton	1394	34
56	Wigan	1394	9
57	Huddersfield	1377	18
58	Walsall	1377	42
59	Yeovil	1375	42
60	Cardiff	1374	33
61	Birmingham	1371	55
62	Reading	1370	12
63	Doncaster	1370	44
64	Peterboro	1363	45
65	Blackpool	1362	33
66	Watford FC	1360	65
67	Milton Keynes Dons	1358	38
68	Colchester	1358	4
69	Preston North End FC	1357	37
70	Scunthorpe	1354	2
71	Swindon	1349	14
72	Southend	1345	49
73	Grimsby	1343	40
74	Port Vale	1323	27
75	Tranmere	1322	20
76	Barnsley	1313	51
77	Wimbledon	1298	19
78	Stockport	1298	12
79	Bradford	1289	30
80	Rotherham	1279	7
81	Bolton	1266	46
82	Sheffield Wednesday FC	1255	39

82 clubs

2025-26 final table

The last completed season, for context while the new campaign is thin on games.

Pos	Team	Pld	Pts	GD
1	Coventry City FC	46	95	+52
2	Ipswich Town FC	46	84	+33
3	Southampton FC	45	81	+32
4	Millwall FC	46	81	+14
5	Middlesbrough FC	46	78	+21
6	Hull City AFC	47	74	+3
7	Wrexham AFC	46	71	+4
8	Derby County FC	46	69	+8
9	Norwich City FC	46	65	+7
10	Birmingham City FC	46	64	+1
11	Swansea City AFC	46	64	-2
12	Bristol City FC	46	62	0
13	Sheffield United FC	46	60	0
14	Preston North End FC	46	60	-7
15	Queens Park Rangers FC	46	58	-12
16	Watford FC	46	57	-12
17	Stoke City FC	46	55	-5
18	Portsmouth FC	46	55	-15
19	West Bromwich Albion FC	46	53	-10
20	Charlton Athletic FC	46	53	-14
21	Leicester City FC	46	52	-10
22	Blackburn Rovers FC	46	52	-14
23	Oxford United FC	46	47	-14
24	Sheffield Wednesday FC	46	18	-60

How these projections work

Every club carries an Elo rating that moves only with results — beat a stronger side and it rises, drop points to a weaker one and it falls. A Poisson goal model (the same engine behind our football totals and handicap predictions, with a shots-on-target-based xG proxy) turns the two teams' ratings into a full scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture.

We then play out the rest of the season 10,000 times, drawing a result for every fixture from those distributions and re-building the table each time. The percentages above are simple counts across those simulated seasons: how often a club finished first, in the top four, in a European spot, or in the relegation places.

Honest limitations

The model only knows results and shot data — it cannot see transfers, injuries, managerial changes or squad depth until they show up in performances, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level. Probabilities are estimates, not promises: a 5% relegation chance still happens one season in twenty. We publish the projections in full; the value bets our model finds on individual matches are part of the paid plans and are never shown here.

Our track record in this league

6 settled value bets on EFL Championship matches so far.

Win rate

16.7%

Result (units)

-2.56u

Avg. closing-line value

+5.87pp

See the full public track record

Go deeper

Related guides

Frequently asked questions

How do you calculate the EFL Championship projection?

Every club carries a results-driven Elo rating; a Poisson goal model turns both teams' ratings into a scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture. We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times and count how often each club wins the title, finishes in Europe, or gets relegated.

How often is the table updated?

The pre-season projection is frozen shortly before matchday 1 and kept unchanged all season as a reference point. The live projection re-simulates nightly as results come in.

Does the model account for transfers or injuries?

No — the model only knows results and shot data. Squad depth, managerial changes and injuries only show up once they show up in results, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level.

Is this the same model behind your EFL Championship value bets?

Yes — the same Elo and Poisson engine also powers our value bets on individual matches. This table projection is entirely free; the value bets on individual matches are part of the paid plans.