The EFL Championship is famously the hardest league in Europe to predict: 46 rounds, relegated Premier League squads colliding with promoted upstarts, and a playoff lottery at the top. That chaos is measurable — our Elo ratings and Poisson goal model quantify how compressed the field really is, and 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule show how wide the plausible outcomes are for every club, from automatic promotion to the drop zone.
| Pos | Team | Pld | Pts | Proj Pts | Title % | Top 4 % | Europe % | Releg. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.67 | West Ham United FC | 0 | 0 | 82 | 45.2% | 84.4% | 91.9% | <0.1% |
| 4.66 | Southampton FC | 0 | 0 | 76 | 17.8% | 61.9% | 76.5% | 0.1% |
| 4.87 | Stoke City FC | 0 | 0 | 76 | 16.4% | 59.5% | 74.5% | 0.1% |
| 8.25 | Millwall FC | 0 | 0 | 69 | 4.5% | 29.3% | 45.2% | 1.2% |
| 9.52 | Wolverhampton Wanderers FC | 0 | 0 | 67 | 2.5% | 20.9% | 35.3% | 2.1% |
| 9.94 | Wrexham AFC | 0 | 0 | 66 | 2.1% | 18.7% | 32.0% | 2.5% |
| 11 | Derby County FC | 0 | 0 | 65 | 1.5% | 14.1% | 25.6% | 4.0% |
| 11.19 | Middlesbrough FC | 0 | 0 | 65 | 1.5% | 13.5% | 24.9% | 3.8% |
| 11.38 | Cardiff City FC | 0 | 0 | 64 | 1.4% | 12.9% | 23.2% | 4.1% |
| 11.43 | Lincoln City FC | 0 | 0 | 64 | 1.1% | 12.7% | 23.5% | 4.7% |
| 11.46 | Bolton Wanderers FC | 0 | 0 | 64 | 1.3% | 12.5% | 23.0% | 4.7% |
| 11.73 | West Bromwich Albion FC | 0 | 0 | 64 | 1.1% | 11.1% | 21.3% | 4.9% |
| 11.75 | Norwich City FC | 0 | 0 | 64 | 1.1% | 12.2% | 22.4% | 5.1% |
| 12.47 | Sheffield United FC | 0 | 0 | 63 | 0.8% | 9.3% | 18.8% | 6.4% |
| 12.8 | Burnley FC | 0 | 0 | 62 | 0.7% | 8.1% | 17.1% | 7.3% |
| 13.8 | Swansea City AFC | 0 | 0 | 61 | 0.5% | 5.8% | 12.3% | 9.2% |
| 14.86 | Watford FC | 0 | 0 | 59 | 0.3% | 4.4% | 9.9% | 13.6% |
| 15.92 | Blackburn Rovers FC | 0 | 0 | 57 | 0.1% | 2.4% | 6.5% | 18.0% |
| 17.17 | Portsmouth FC | 0 | 0 | 55 | 0.1% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 24.4% |
| 17.31 | Birmingham City FC | 0 | 0 | 55 | 0.1% | 1.5% | 3.8% | 25.3% |
| 17.72 | Bristol City FC | 0 | 0 | 54 | <0.1% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 29.4% |
| 18.57 | Queens Park Rangers FC | 0 | 0 | 53 | 0.1% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 35.4% |
| 18.67 | Preston North End FC | 0 | 0 | 53 | <0.1% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 36.1% |
| 20.87 | Charlton Athletic FC | 0 | 0 | 48 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 57.6% |
Every club carries an Elo rating that moves only with results — beat a stronger side and it rises, drop points to a weaker one and it falls. A Poisson goal model (the same engine behind our football totals and handicap predictions, with a shots-on-target-based xG proxy) turns the two teams' ratings into a full scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture.
We then play out the rest of the season 10,000 times, drawing a result for every fixture from those distributions and re-building the table each time. The percentages above are simple counts across those simulated seasons: how often a club finished first, in the top four, in a European spot, or in the relegation places.
The model only knows results and shot data — it cannot see transfers, injuries, managerial changes or squad depth until they show up in performances, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level. Probabilities are estimates, not promises: a 5% relegation chance still happens one season in twenty. We publish the projections in full; the value bets our model finds on individual matches are part of the paid plans and are never shown here.