Elo power ratings for every FBS team, computed 538-style over 9,000+ games since 2014. Game-by-game predictions and our full model reads land here when the season opens on Aug 29.
Model spread & total leans for every FBS game, week by week — Pinnacle-anchored and graded after final whistle.
→ View this week's readsEvery 2026 game gets a prediction page with Elo leans, form and head-to-head — the full model (built the same way as our NFL model) publishes its reads when lines open in late August.
→ Browse 2026 games & predictions| Team | Ø Wins | CFP |
|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 5.9 | 70% |
| Miami | 5.7 | 65% |
| Utah | 5.7 | 60% |
| BYU | 5.6 | 56% |
| Oregon | 5.6 | 56% |
| Texas | 5.5 | 54% |
| Georgia | 5.3 | 50% |
| Indiana | 5.3 | 48% |
| Texas Tech | 5.4 | 47% |
| Ohio State | 4.9 | 33% |
| Duke | 4.9 | 32% |
| Notre Dame | 5.0 | 32% |
2,000 Monte-Carlo season simulations on Elo power ratings (12-team format: P4 champs + best G5 champ + 7 at-large). A projection, not a bet recommendation — rosters shift until kickoff.
| Rank | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Indiana | 1810 |
| #2 | Miami | 1791 |
| #3 | Ohio State | 1784 |
| #4 | Georgia | 1782 |
| #5 | Alabama | 1750 |
| #6 | Texas | 1736 |
| #7 | James Madison | 1725 |
| #8 | Oregon | 1722 |
| #9 | Utah | 1711 |
| #10 | Notre Dame | 1709 |
| #11 | BYU | 1703 |
| #12 | Texas Tech | 1702 |
| #13 | Ole Miss | 1672 |
| #14 | Duke | 1651 |
| #15 | USC | 1647 |
| #16 | Boise State | 1640 |
| #17 | Iowa | 1639 |
| #18 | Arizona | 1634 |
| #19 | LSU | 1633 |
| #20 | SMU | 1633 |
| #21 | Tennessee | 1630 |
| #22 | Missouri | 1619 |
| #23 | Wisconsin | 1611 |
| #24 | Nebraska | 1606 |
| #25 | Pittsburgh | 1603 |
Why trust the numbers? Our models run at Pinnacle-level accuracy with every result published — see the track record.