Ligue 1 is two competitions in one: PSG's title odds are usually the shortest in Europe, while the fight behind them — Champions League spots, Europe, and a brutal relegation zone — is among the most volatile. A model helps most exactly where headlines help least: our Elo ratings track every club's true level game by game, the Poisson engine turns those levels into scoreline distributions, and 10,000 season simulations convert them into probabilities for every finishing position that matters.
| Pos | Team | Pld | Pts | Proj Pts | Title % | Top 4 % | Europe % | Releg. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.1 | Paris Saint-Germain FC | 0 | 0 | 78 | 91.3% | 100.0% | >99.9% | 0% |
| 2.92 | Lille OSC | 0 | 0 | 63 | 5.5% | 88.1% | 96.6% | <0.1% |
| 3.59 | AS Monaco FC | 0 | 0 | 60 | 2.6% | 78.5% | 92.1% | <0.1% |
| 5.62 | Olympique de Marseille | 0 | 0 | 54 | 0.4% | 44.8% | 70.3% | 0.6% |
| 7.42 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 0 | 0 | 49 | 0.1% | 22.5% | 48.1% | 2.7% |
| 8.56 | FC Lorient | 0 | 0 | 47 | <0.1% | 13.9% | 34.7% | 5.7% |
| 8.87 | Toulouse FC | 0 | 0 | 46 | <0.1% | 12.3% | 32.1% | 6.2% |
| 9 | Racing Club de Lens | 0 | 0 | 46 | <0.1% | 12.0% | 30.9% | 7.0% |
| 9.53 | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 0% | 9.3% | 26.1% | 8.9% |
| 11.56 | Paris FC | 0 | 0 | 41 | 0% | 3.7% | 12.2% | 19.6% |
| 11.98 | AJ Auxerre | 0 | 0 | 41 | <0.1% | 2.9% | 9.9% | 22.7% |
| 12.09 | Olympique Lyonnais | 0 | 0 | 40 | 0% | 2.5% | 9.4% | 23.6% |
| 12.28 | ES Troyes AC | 0 | 0 | 40 | 0% | 2.3% | 8.6% | 25.2% |
| 12.33 | Le Mans FC | 0 | 0 | 40 | 0% | 2.5% | 8.7% | 25.7% |
| 12.69 | OGC Nice | 0 | 0 | 39 | 0% | 1.9% | 7.6% | 29.1% |
| 13.08 | Stade Brestois 29 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 0% | 1.5% | 6.1% | 32.9% |
| 13.95 | Le Havre AC | 0 | 0 | 37 | 0% | 0.7% | 3.7% | 42.2% |
| 14.43 | Angers SCO | 0 | 0 | 36 | 0% | 0.7% | 2.7% | 47.7% |
Every club carries an Elo rating that moves only with results — beat a stronger side and it rises, drop points to a weaker one and it falls. A Poisson goal model (the same engine behind our football totals and handicap predictions, with a shots-on-target-based xG proxy) turns the two teams' ratings into a full scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture.
We then play out the rest of the season 10,000 times, drawing a result for every fixture from those distributions and re-building the table each time. The percentages above are simple counts across those simulated seasons: how often a club finished first, in the top four, in a European spot, or in the relegation places.
The model only knows results and shot data — it cannot see transfers, injuries, managerial changes or squad depth until they show up in performances, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level. Probabilities are estimates, not promises: a 5% relegation chance still happens one season in twenty. We publish the projections in full; the value bets our model finds on individual matches are part of the paid plans and are never shown here.