Season Hub

Ligue 1 2026-27 Season Predictions — Projected Table & Title Odds

Q: How do you calculate the Ligue 1 projection?

Every club carries a results-driven Elo rating; a Poisson goal model turns both teams' ratings into a scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture. We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times and count how often each club wins the title, finishes in Europe, or gets relegated.

Q: How often is the table updated?

The pre-season projection is frozen shortly before matchday 1 and kept unchanged all season as a reference point. The live projection re-simulates nightly as results come in.

Q: Does the model account for transfers or injuries?

No — the model only knows results and shot data. Squad depth, managerial changes and injuries only show up once they show up in results, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level.

Q: Is this the same model behind your Ligue 1 value bets?

Yes — the same Elo and Poisson engine also powers our value bets on individual matches. This table projection is entirely free; the value bets on individual matches are part of the paid plans.

Ligue 1 is two competitions in one: PSG's title odds are usually the shortest in Europe, while the fight behind them — Champions League spots, Europe, and a brutal relegation zone — is among the most volatile. A model helps most exactly where headlines help least: our Elo ratings track every club's true level game by game, the Poisson engine turns those levels into scoreline distributions, and 10,000 season simulations convert them into probabilities for every finishing position that matters.

Live projectionLatest simulation: 29 Aug 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs over the remaining fixtures

Pos	Team	Pld	Pts	Proj Pts	Title %	Top 4 %	Europe %	Releg. %
2.4	Lille OSC	2	4	74	35.8%	89.2%	99.8%	0%
2.67	Olympique de Marseille	1	3	72	28.2%	85.7%	99.7%	0%
3.14	AS Monaco FC	1	3	70	18.4%	78.0%	99.2%	0%
4.05	Paris Saint-Germain FC	2	2	66	7.9%	56.8%	97.1%	0%
4.23	Olympique Lyonnais	2	4	66	6.2%	51.8%	96.5%	0%
4.78	Racing Club de Lens	2	3	63	3.5%	37.9%	92.4%	0%
9.68	Stade Rennais FC 1901	1	1	44	0%	0.1%	3.5%	1.4%
9.69	FC Lorient	2	1	44	0%	0.2%	3.4%	1.1%
10.28	Stade Brestois 29	2	2	42	0%	0.1%	2.0%	2.1%
10.4	OGC Nice	1	1	42	0%	0.1%	1.8%	2.1%
10.41	ES Troyes AC	2	4	42	0%	0.1%	1.7%	2.1%
10.57	Le Mans FC	1	1	42	0%	0.1%	1.6%	2.5%
10.67	Paris FC	1	1	41	0%	0.1%	1.6%	2.9%
14.83	Le Havre AC	2	1	30	0%	0%	<0.1%	40.8%
15.36	Angers SCO	2	3	28	0%	0%	0%	51.4%
15.56	Toulouse FC	2	1	27	0%	0%	<0.1%	55.9%
16.03	AJ Auxerre	2	0	26	0%	0%	0%	66.6%
16.24	RC Strasbourg Alsace	2	3	25	0%	0%	0%	71.2%

Compare with our pre-season snapshot

The frozen projection from before matchday 1 — kept unchanged all season so you can judge how the model's pre-season read held up.

Pos	Team	Pld	Pts	Proj Pts	Title %	Top 4 %	Europe %	Releg. %
1.1	Paris Saint-Germain FC	2	2	78	91.5%	99.9%	>99.9%	0%
2.91	Lille OSC	2	4	63	5.5%	88.8%	96.4%	0%
3.59	AS Monaco FC	1	3	60	2.5%	78.3%	91.9%	0.1%
5.63	Olympique de Marseille	1	3	54	0.4%	44.0%	70.5%	0.7%
7.46	RC Strasbourg Alsace	2	3	49	0.1%	22.2%	46.7%	2.9%
8.52	FC Lorient	2	1	47	0.1%	14.5%	35.7%	5.3%
8.85	Toulouse FC	2	1	46	0.1%	12.9%	32.4%	6.2%
9.03	Racing Club de Lens	2	3	46	<0.1%	11.5%	30.6%	6.8%
9.52	Stade Rennais FC 1901	1	1	45	<0.1%	9.6%	26.0%	8.7%
11.6	Paris FC	1	1	41	0%	3.4%	12.6%	20.1%
11.9	AJ Auxerre	2	0	41	<0.1%	2.9%	10.5%	22.2%
12.09	Olympique Lyonnais	2	4	40	0%	2.8%	9.7%	23.6%
12.28	ES Troyes AC	2	4	40	0%	2.3%	8.8%	25.0%
12.3	Le Mans FC	1	1	40	0%	2.5%	9.0%	25.6%
12.68	OGC Nice	1	1	39	0%	1.9%	7.5%	29.2%
13.09	Stade Brestois 29	2	2	39	0%	1.3%	5.8%	32.6%
13.98	Le Havre AC	2	1	37	0%	0.7%	3.5%	42.5%
14.48	Angers SCO	2	3	36	0%	0.6%	2.6%	48.8%

Next 7 days

Paris FC vs OGC NiceSun 30 Aug, 13:00
Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs Le Mans FCSun 30 Aug, 15:15
AS Monaco FC vs Olympique de MarseilleSun 30 Aug, 18:45
Toulouse FC vs Lille OSCThu 03 Sept, 18:45
Olympique Lyonnais vs AJ AuxerreFri 04 Sept, 17:00
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs AS Monaco FCFri 04 Sept, 19:05
Racing Club de Lens vs FC LorientSat 05 Sept, 15:15
Le Havre AC vs Stade Brestois 29Sat 05 Sept, 18:45
OGC Nice vs Le Mans FCSat 05 Sept, 18:45

Club Elo ratings

Every club's current Elo — the same rating our model reads at predict time; higher = stronger, and it moves only with results.

Rank	Club	Elo	Trend
1	Paris SG	1834	53
2	Paris Saint-Germain FC	1830	34
3	Lens	1715	33
4	Lille OSC	1712	13
5	AS Monaco FC	1687	17
6	Olympique de Marseille	1650	11
7	Lyon	1617	26
8	Rennes	1611	3
9	RC Strasbourg Alsace	1598	10
10	Brest	1588	55
11	FC Lorient	1574	5
12	Stade Rennais FC 1901	1568	22
13	Racing Club de Lens	1558	40
14	Paris FC	1553	26
15	Toulouse FC	1552	39
16	Sochaux	1547	64
17	Olympique Lyonnais	1525	51
18	FC Nantes	1516	8
19	AJ Auxerre	1512	39
20	OGC Nice	1504	8
21	Gueugnon	1492	61
22	Stade Brestois 29	1480	31
23	Le Havre AC	1478	9
24	Clermont	1472	22
25	Ajaccio GFCO	1463	19
26	Angers SCO	1459	21
27	Bastia	1457	7
28	Clermont Foot	1457	21
29	Amiens	1456	10
30	Sedan	1455	15
31	Istres	1453	14
32	St Etienne	1451	22
33	Angers	1450	39
34	Nimes	1448	19
35	Le Mans	1442	21
36	Martigues	1440	73
37	Chateauroux	1438	8
38	Boulogne	1438	8
39	Nancy	1436	11
40	Saint-Etienne	1435	1
41	Reims	1435	38
42	Metz	1434	8
43	Caen	1432	42
44	Evian Thonon Gaillard	1430	61
45	Guingamp	1430	23
46	Bordeaux	1429	27
47	Cannes	1419	52
48	Valenciennes	1419	67
49	Grenoble	1412	36
50	Arles	1405	11
51	Ajaccio	1364	20
52	Dijon	1356	11
53	FC Metz	1356	1
54	Troyes	1354	6
55	Montpellier	1323	18

55 clubs

2025-26 final table

The last completed season, for context while the new campaign is thin on games.

Pos	Team	Pld	Pts	GD
1	Paris Saint-Germain FC	12	25	+15
2	Lille OSC	11	24	+7
3	Stade Rennais FC 1901	11	22	+9
4	RC Strasbourg Alsace	12	22	+4
5	AS Monaco FC	10	20	+7
6	Paris FC	10	18	+7
7	Olympique de Marseille	10	16	-2
8	Racing Club de Lens	11	15	+5
9	AJ Auxerre	10	15	+3
10	Toulouse FC	10	15	0
11	FC Lorient	10	13	+3
12	Stade Brestois 29	12	12	-7
13	Olympique Lyonnais	10	11	-5
14	FC Nantes	10	8	-3
15	OGC Nice	11	8	-10
16	Le Havre AC	10	7	-5
17	Angers SCO	10	6	-13
18	Paris FC	2	4	+3
19	Olympique Lyonnais	2	4	+2
20	Lille OSC	1	3	+4
21	Olympique de Marseille	2	3	+1
22	Racing Club de Lens	1	3	+1
23	Stade Rennais FC 1901	1	3	+1
24	AS Monaco FC	2	3	-2
25	FC Metz	10	3	-15
26	Le Havre AC	2	2	0
27	AJ Auxerre	2	2	0
28	FC Nantes	2	2	0
29	OGC Nice	1	1	0
30	Angers SCO	2	1	-1
31	FC Metz	2	1	-2
32	FC Lorient	2	1	-2
33	Toulouse FC	2	0	-5

How these projections work

Every club carries an Elo rating that moves only with results — beat a stronger side and it rises, drop points to a weaker one and it falls. A Poisson goal model (the same engine behind our football totals and handicap predictions, with a shots-on-target-based xG proxy) turns the two teams' ratings into a full scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture.

We then play out the rest of the season 10,000 times, drawing a result for every fixture from those distributions and re-building the table each time. The percentages above are simple counts across those simulated seasons: how often a club finished first, in the top four, in a European spot, or in the relegation places.

Honest limitations

The model only knows results and shot data — it cannot see transfers, injuries, managerial changes or squad depth until they show up in performances, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level. Probabilities are estimates, not promises: a 5% relegation chance still happens one season in twenty. We publish the projections in full; the value bets our model finds on individual matches are part of the paid plans and are never shown here.

Our track record in this league

14 settled value bets on Ligue 1 matches so far.

Win rate

57.1%

Result (units)

+9.65u

Avg. closing-line value

+3.80pp

See the full public track record

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Frequently asked questions

How do you calculate the Ligue 1 projection?

Every club carries a results-driven Elo rating; a Poisson goal model turns both teams' ratings into a scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture. We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times and count how often each club wins the title, finishes in Europe, or gets relegated.

How often is the table updated?

The pre-season projection is frozen shortly before matchday 1 and kept unchanged all season as a reference point. The live projection re-simulates nightly as results come in.

Does the model account for transfers or injuries?

No — the model only knows results and shot data. Squad depth, managerial changes and injuries only show up once they show up in results, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level.

Is this the same model behind your Ligue 1 value bets?

Yes — the same Elo and Poisson engine also powers our value bets on individual matches. This table projection is entirely free; the value bets on individual matches are part of the paid plans.