Season Hub

Premier League 2026-27 Season Predictions — Projected Table & Title Odds

Q: How do you calculate the Premier League projection?

Every club carries a results-driven Elo rating; a Poisson goal model turns both teams' ratings into a scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture. We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times and count how often each club wins the title, finishes in Europe, or gets relegated.

Q: How often is the table updated?

The pre-season projection is frozen shortly before matchday 1 and kept unchanged all season as a reference point. The live projection re-simulates nightly as results come in.

Q: Does the model account for transfers or injuries?

No — the model only knows results and shot data. Squad depth, managerial changes and injuries only show up once they show up in results, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level.

Q: Is this the same model behind your Premier League value bets?

Yes — the same Elo and Poisson engine also powers our value bets on individual matches. This table projection is entirely free; the value bets on individual matches are part of the paid plans.

The Premier League is the deepest league in world football — a top half full of Champions-League-calibre squads and a bottom half that spends more than most title winners elsewhere. That depth makes single results noisy and season-long simulation genuinely useful: our model rates all 20 squads with results-driven Elo ratings and a Poisson goal model (with shots-on-target-based xG), then plays out the remaining fixture list 10,000 times to turn team strength into title, top-four, Europe and relegation probabilities.

Live projectionLatest simulation: 16 Oct 2026 · 10,000 Monte Carlo runs over the remaining fixtures

Pos	Team	Pld	Pts	Proj Pts	Title %	Top 4 %	Europe %	Releg. %
1.35	Manchester City FC	6	18	89	72.5%	99.9%	100.0%	0%
2.18	Brighton & Hove Albion FC	6	13	82	20.1%	98.3%	99.9%	0%
2.88	Arsenal FC	6	15	77	7.2%	93.5%	99.1%	0%
5.59	Brentford FC	6	10	64	0.1%	34.8%	72.0%	<0.1%
5.95	Everton FC	6	10	63	0.1%	27.2%	65.1%	0%
6.66	Chelsea FC	6	10	61	<0.1%	16.7%	51.9%	0%
6.74	Leeds United FC	6	9	61	<0.1%	16.5%	50.1%	0%
8.15	Liverpool FC	6	9	57	<0.1%	6.6%	26.2%	0.1%
8.46	Hull City AFC	6	9	56	0%	4.6%	22.0%	0.1%
10.27	Ipswich Town FC	6	9	51	0%	1.1%	7.2%	0.5%
11.73	Crystal Palace FC	6	7	47	0%	0.4%	2.7%	2.5%
12.06	Manchester United FC	6	6	46	0%	0.2%	2.2%	2.9%
12.52	Newcastle United FC	6	8	45	0%	0.1%	1.3%	4.0%
14.93	Nottingham Forest FC	6	5	39	0%	<0.1%	0.1%	18.6%
15.49	Coventry City FC	6	6	38	0%	0%	0.1%	24.6%
16.32	Sunderland AFC	6	4	35	0%	0%	<0.1%	36.4%
16.33	Aston Villa FC	6	5	35	0%	0%	<0.1%	37.3%
16.62	Fulham FC	6	2	34	0%	0%	<0.1%	42.3%
16.75	AFC Bournemouth	6	3	34	0%	0%	<0.1%	44.3%
19.02	Tottenham Hotspur FC	6	3	27	0%	0%	0%	86.6%

Compare with our pre-season snapshot

The frozen projection from before matchday 1 — kept unchanged all season so you can judge how the model's pre-season read held up.

Pos	Team	Pld	Pts	Proj Pts	Title %	Top 4 %	Europe %	Releg. %
2.11	Liverpool FC	6	9	77	39.2%	95.3%	99.1%	0%
2.18	Arsenal FC	6	15	77	36.3%	94.8%	99.0%	0%
2.72	Manchester City FC	6	18	73	21.1%	89.7%	97.4%	0%
6.03	Manchester United FC	6	6	61	1.4%	35.5%	64.8%	0.1%
6.54	Everton FC	6	10	60	1.0%	28.5%	58.6%	0.3%
7.89	Brentford FC	6	10	57	0.3%	15.6%	41.3%	0.9%
7.89	AFC Bournemouth	6	3	57	0.4%	15.5%	41.0%	0.9%
9.57	Aston Villa FC	6	5	53	0.1%	7.4%	23.6%	2.7%
10.55	Chelsea FC	6	10	51	0.1%	4.5%	16.6%	4.5%
11.21	Leeds United FC	6	9	50	0.1%	3.2%	13.0%	6.0%
11.34	Newcastle United FC	6	8	49	<0.1%	3.0%	11.5%	6.4%
11.64	Brighton & Hove Albion FC	6	13	49	0%	2.3%	10.3%	7.4%
11.7	Fulham FC	6	2	49	<0.1%	2.3%	10.2%	7.4%
12.67	Nottingham Forest FC	6	5	47	<0.1%	1.4%	6.4%	11.5%
14.2	Crystal Palace FC	6	7	44	0%	0.4%	2.9%	21.7%
15.04	Sunderland AFC	6	4	42	0%	0.3%	1.8%	29.0%
15.15	Coventry City FC	6	6	42	0%	0.1%	1.4%	29.7%
16.47	Tottenham Hotspur FC	6	3	39	0%	<0.1%	0.6%	46.1%
17.27	Ipswich Town FC	6	9	37	0%	<0.1%	0.3%	58.2%
17.84	Hull City AFC	6	9	35	0%	0%	0.1%	67.1%

Next 7 days

Everton FC vs Chelsea FCSat 17 Oct, 11:30
Brentford FC vs Liverpool FCSat 17 Oct, 14:00
Fulham FC vs Hull City AFCSat 17 Oct, 14:00
Manchester City FC vs Ipswich Town FCSat 17 Oct, 14:00
Newcastle United FC vs Aston Villa FCSat 17 Oct, 16:30
AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland AFCSun 18 Oct, 13:00
Leeds United FC vs Manchester United FCSun 18 Oct, 13:00
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Crystal Palace FCSun 18 Oct, 13:00
Nottingham Forest FC vs Arsenal FCSun 18 Oct, 15:30
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs Coventry City FCMon 19 Oct, 19:00

Club Elo ratings

Every club's current Elo — the same rating our model reads at predict time; higher = stronger, and it moves only with results.

Rank	Club	Elo	Trend
1	Arsenal FC	1929	12
2	Manchester City FC	1899	28
3	Brighton & Hove Albion FC	1773	47
4	Manchester United FC	1763	48
5	Liverpool FC	1761	29
6	Brentford FC	1752	25
7	Aston Villa FC	1751	±0
8	Leeds United FC	1737	17
9	AFC Bournemouth	1736	58
10	Burnley	1723	25
11	Chelsea FC	1707	26
12	Everton FC	1706	27
13	Newcastle	1702	19
14	Newcastle United FC	1687	7
15	Man City	1671	44
16	Nottingham Forest FC	1669	38
17	Crystal Palace FC	1669	3
18	Sunderland AFC	1663	27
19	West Ham United FC	1658	35
20	Fulham FC	1646	60
21	Coventry City FC	1620	4
22	Ipswich Town FC	1619	29
23	Tottenham Hotspur FC	1614	20
24	Southampton FC	1603	33
25	Aston Villa	1598	17
26	Bournemouth	1595	53
27	Hull City AFC	1583	54
28	Middlesbrough FC	1580	50
29	Swansea City AFC	1578	54
30	Fulham	1569	35
31	Blackburn	1557	49
32	Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	1544	22
33	Coventry	1512	6
34	Luton	1507	36
35	West Bromwich Albion FC	1482	18
36	Queens Park Rangers FC	1474	26
37	Burnley FC	1468	17
38	Sunderland	1458	100
39	Norwich City FC	1456	45
40	Sheffield United FC	1453	16
41	Stoke City FC	1434	91
42	Charlton Athletic FC	1427	30
43	Derby	1422	35
44	Hull	1421	28
45	Leicester City FC	1414	4
46	Oldham	1396	2
47	Portsmouth	1396	8
48	Wigan	1394	9
49	Huddersfield	1377	18
50	Cardiff	1374	33
51	Birmingham	1371	55
52	Reading	1370	12
53	Blackpool	1362	33
54	Watford FC	1360	65
55	Swindon	1349	14
56	Barnsley	1313	51
57	Wimbledon	1298	19
58	Bradford	1289	30
59	Bolton	1266	46
60	Sheffield Wednesday FC	1255	39

60 clubs

2025-26 final table

The last completed season, for context while the new campaign is thin on games.

Pos	Team	Pld	Pts	GD
1	Arsenal FC	38	85	+44
2	Manchester City FC	38	78	+42
3	Manchester United FC	38	71	+19
4	Aston Villa FC	38	65	+7
5	Liverpool FC	38	60	+10
6	AFC Bournemouth	38	57	+4
7	Sunderland AFC	38	54	-6
8	Brighton & Hove Albion FC	38	53	+6
9	Brentford FC	38	53	+3
10	Chelsea FC	38	52	+6
11	Fulham FC	38	52	-4
12	Newcastle United FC	38	49	-2
13	Everton FC	38	49	-3
14	Leeds United FC	38	47	-7
15	Crystal Palace FC	38	45	-10
16	Nottingham Forest FC	38	44	-3
17	Tottenham Hotspur FC	38	41	-9
18	West Ham United FC	38	39	-19
19	Burnley FC	38	22	-37
20	Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	38	20	-41

How these projections work

Every club carries an Elo rating that moves only with results — beat a stronger side and it rises, drop points to a weaker one and it falls. A Poisson goal model (the same engine behind our football totals and handicap predictions, with a shots-on-target-based xG proxy) turns the two teams' ratings into a full scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture.

We then play out the rest of the season 10,000 times, drawing a result for every fixture from those distributions and re-building the table each time. The percentages above are simple counts across those simulated seasons: how often a club finished first, in the top four, in a European spot, or in the relegation places.

Honest limitations

The model only knows results and shot data — it cannot see transfers, injuries, managerial changes or squad depth until they show up in performances, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level. Probabilities are estimates, not promises: a 5% relegation chance still happens one season in twenty. We publish the projections in full; the value bets our model finds on individual matches are part of the paid plans and are never shown here.

Our track record in this league

2 settled value bets on Premier League matches so far.

Win rate

50.0%

Result (units)

-1.50u

Avg. closing-line value

+8.18pp

See the full public track record

Go deeper

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Frequently asked questions

How do you calculate the Premier League projection?

Every club carries a results-driven Elo rating; a Poisson goal model turns both teams' ratings into a scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture. We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times and count how often each club wins the title, finishes in Europe, or gets relegated.

How often is the table updated?

The pre-season projection is frozen shortly before matchday 1 and kept unchanged all season as a reference point. The live projection re-simulates nightly as results come in.

Does the model account for transfers or injuries?

No — the model only knows results and shot data. Squad depth, managerial changes and injuries only show up once they show up in results, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level.

Is this the same model behind your Premier League value bets?

Yes — the same Elo and Poisson engine also powers our value bets on individual matches. This table projection is entirely free; the value bets on individual matches are part of the paid plans.