The Premier League is the deepest league in world football — a top half full of Champions-League-calibre squads and a bottom half that spends more than most title winners elsewhere. That depth makes single results noisy and season-long simulation genuinely useful: our model rates all 20 squads with results-driven Elo ratings and a Poisson goal model (with shots-on-target-based xG), then plays out the remaining fixture list 10,000 times to turn team strength into title, top-four, Europe and relegation probabilities.
| Pos | Team | Pld | Pts | Proj Pts | Title % | Top 4 % | Europe % | Releg. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.18 | Arsenal FC | 1 | 3 | 84 | 41.7% | 92.4% | 98.9% | 0% |
| 2.32 | Manchester City FC | 2 | 6 | 83 | 36.8% | 90.6% | 98.5% | 0% |
| 4 | Brentford FC | 1 | 3 | 76 | 8.1% | 63.6% | 89.4% | 0% |
| 4.08 | Everton FC | 2 | 4 | 76 | 7.5% | 61.2% | 89.3% | 0% |
| 4.72 | Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 1 | 3 | 73 | 4.1% | 46.9% | 81.5% | 0% |
| 6.01 | Leeds United FC | 1 | 3 | 69 | 1.1% | 22.5% | 58.7% | 0% |
| 6.95 | Liverpool FC | 2 | 2 | 66 | 0.4% | 12.5% | 38.5% | 0% |
| 7.7 | Hull City AFC | 2 | 6 | 63 | 0.1% | 6.0% | 23.8% | 0% |
| 8.16 | Chelsea FC | 1 | 3 | 61 | 0.1% | 3.8% | 17.3% | <0.1% |
| 9.81 | Ipswich Town FC | 1 | 3 | 54 | 0% | 0.3% | 3.5% | <0.1% |
| 11.06 | Newcastle United FC | 2 | 4 | 49 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| 13.61 | Fulham FC | 1 | 0 | 40 | 0% | 0% | <0.1% | 8.1% |
| 13.88 | AFC Bournemouth | 2 | 1 | 39 | 0% | 0% | <0.1% | 9.2% |
| 15.61 | Manchester United FC | 1 | 0 | 34 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 26.3% |
| 16.07 | Nottingham Forest FC | 2 | 1 | 33 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 32.6% |
| 16.18 | Sunderland AFC | 1 | 0 | 32 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 34.6% |
| 16.28 | Coventry City FC | 2 | 0 | 32 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 36.6% |
| 16.82 | Aston Villa FC | 1 | 0 | 31 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 45.4% |
| 17.03 | Crystal Palace FC | 2 | 0 | 30 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 48.9% |
| 17.54 | Tottenham Hotspur FC | 2 | 0 | 29 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 57.8% |
The frozen projection from before matchday 1 — kept unchanged all season so you can judge how the model's pre-season read held up.
| Pos | Team | Pld | Pts | Proj Pts | Title % | Top 4 % | Europe % | Releg. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.11 | Liverpool FC | 2 | 2 | 77 | 39.2% | 95.3% | 99.1% | 0% |
| 2.18 | Arsenal FC | 1 | 3 | 77 | 36.3% | 94.8% | 99.0% | 0% |
| 2.72 | Manchester City FC | 2 | 6 | 73 | 21.1% | 89.7% | 97.4% | 0% |
| 6.03 | Manchester United FC | 1 | 0 | 61 | 1.4% | 35.5% | 64.8% | 0.1% |
| 6.54 | Everton FC | 2 | 4 | 60 | 1.0% | 28.5% | 58.6% | 0.3% |
| 7.89 | Brentford FC | 1 | 3 | 57 | 0.3% | 15.6% | 41.3% | 0.9% |
| 7.89 | AFC Bournemouth | 2 | 1 | 57 | 0.4% | 15.5% | 41.0% | 0.9% |
| 9.57 | Aston Villa FC | 1 | 0 | 53 | 0.1% | 7.4% | 23.6% | 2.7% |
| 10.55 | Chelsea FC | 1 | 3 | 51 | 0.1% | 4.5% | 16.6% | 4.5% |
| 11.21 | Leeds United FC | 1 | 3 | 50 | 0.1% | 3.2% | 13.0% | 6.0% |
| 11.34 | Newcastle United FC | 2 | 4 | 49 | <0.1% | 3.0% | 11.5% | 6.4% |
| 11.64 | Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 1 | 3 | 49 | 0% | 2.3% | 10.3% | 7.4% |
| 11.7 | Fulham FC | 1 | 0 | 49 | <0.1% | 2.3% | 10.2% | 7.4% |
| 12.67 | Nottingham Forest FC | 2 | 1 | 47 | <0.1% | 1.4% | 6.4% | 11.5% |
| 14.2 | Crystal Palace FC | 2 | 0 | 44 | 0% | 0.4% | 2.9% | 21.7% |
| 15.04 | Sunderland AFC | 1 | 0 | 42 | 0% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 29.0% |
| 15.15 | Coventry City FC | 2 | 0 | 42 | 0% | 0.1% | 1.4% | 29.7% |
| 16.47 | Tottenham Hotspur FC | 2 | 0 | 39 | 0% | <0.1% | 0.6% | 46.1% |
| 17.27 | Ipswich Town FC | 1 | 3 | 37 | 0% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 58.2% |
| 17.84 | Hull City AFC | 2 | 6 | 35 | 0% | 0% | 0.1% | 67.1% |
Every club's current Elo — the same rating our model reads at predict time; higher = stronger, and it moves only with results.
| Rank | Club | Elo | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool FC | 1924 | 227 |
| 2 | Arsenal FC | 1891 | 25 |
| 3 | Manchester City FC | 1847 | 8 |
| 4 | Everton FC | 1769 | 1 |
| 5 | Manchester United FC | 1733 | 27 |
| 6 | Brighton | 1730 | 47 |
| 7 | Brentford FC | 1721 | 13 |
| 8 | AFC Bournemouth | 1719 | 18 |
| 9 | Aston Villa FC | 1708 | 32 |
| 10 | Burnley | 1707 | 24 |
| 11 | Nott'm Forest | 1692 | 18 |
| 12 | Leeds United FC | 1691 | 14 |
| 13 | Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 1681 | 27 |
| 14 | Newcastle | 1677 | 19 |
| 15 | Man City | 1671 | 44 |
| 16 | Chelsea FC | 1667 | 21 |
| 17 | Leeds | 1661 | 49 |
| 18 | Newcastle United FC | 1655 | 9 |
| 19 | Fulham FC | 1653 | 9 |
| 20 | Nottingham Forest FC | 1643 | 6 |
| 21 | Wolves | 1622 | 8 |
| 22 | Sunderland AFC | 1612 | 9 |
| 23 | Stoke City FC | 1608 | 180 |
| 24 | Crystal Palace FC | 1607 | 29 |
| 25 | Sheffield United FC | 1587 | 88 |
| 26 | Bournemouth | 1580 | 54 |
| 27 | Aston Villa | 1580 | 17 |
| 28 | Tottenham Hotspur FC | 1577 | 43 |
| 29 | Ipswich | 1568 | 11 |
| 30 | West Ham United FC | 1568 | 37 |
| 31 | Fulham | 1553 | 35 |
| 32 | West Bromwich Albion FC | 1549 | 2 |
| 33 | Blackburn | 1545 | 49 |
| 34 | Wolverhampton Wanderers FC | 1533 | 4 |
| 35 | Middlesbrough FC | 1532 | 44 |
| 36 | Coventry | 1497 | 6 |
| 37 | Swansea City AFC | 1495 | 29 |
| 38 | Leicester | 1483 | 19 |
| 39 | Sheffield Wednesday FC | 1482 | 23 |
| 40 | Luton | 1481 | 49 |
| 41 | Leicester City FC | 1474 | 2 |
| 42 | Queens Park Rangers FC | 1470 | 12 |
| 43 | Burnley FC | 1469 | 10 |
| 44 | Watford FC | 1462 | 18 |
| 45 | Norwich City FC | 1453 | 16 |
| 46 | Sunderland | 1442 | 100 |
| 47 | Norwich | 1425 | 27 |
| 48 | Southampton FC | 1412 | 41 |
| 49 | Derby | 1407 | 35 |
| 50 | Hull | 1406 | 28 |
| 51 | Oldham | 1396 | 2 |
| 52 | Charlton Athletic FC | 1392 | 5 |
| 53 | Portsmouth | 1387 | 8 |
| 54 | Wigan | 1380 | 9 |
| 55 | Huddersfield | 1362 | 18 |
| 56 | Birmingham | 1359 | 55 |
| 57 | Cardiff | 1359 | 32 |
| 58 | Reading | 1357 | 12 |
| 59 | Swindon | 1349 | 14 |
| 60 | Blackpool | 1349 | 34 |
| 61 | Wimbledon | 1298 | 19 |
| 62 | Barnsley | 1298 | 51 |
| 63 | Bradford | 1289 | 30 |
| 64 | Bolton | 1248 | 47 |
64 clubs
The last completed season, for context while the new campaign is thin on games.
| Pos | Team | Pld | Pts | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal FC | 10 | 27 | +13 |
| 2 | Manchester United FC | 12 | 26 | +9 |
| 3 | Manchester City FC | 12 | 25 | +12 |
| 4 | Fulham FC | 11 | 18 | +3 |
| 5 | Sunderland AFC | 12 | 18 | -3 |
| 6 | Nottingham Forest FC | 12 | 17 | +10 |
| 7 | AFC Bournemouth | 11 | 17 | +5 |
| 8 | Leeds United FC | 12 | 17 | +2 |
| 9 | Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 10 | 16 | +1 |
| 10 | Liverpool FC | 11 | 15 | +2 |
| 11 | Aston Villa FC | 12 | 15 | -3 |
| 12 | Newcastle United FC | 12 | 13 | -2 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace FC | 12 | 13 | -6 |
| 14 | Brentford FC | 11 | 12 | -2 |
| 15 | West Ham United FC | 11 | 12 | -6 |
| 16 | Tottenham Hotspur FC | 12 | 12 | -8 |
| 17 | Everton FC | 11 | 11 | -2 |
| 18 | Wolverhampton Wanderers FC | 10 | 10 | -5 |
| 19 | Chelsea FC | 11 | 8 | -8 |
| 20 | Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 2 | 6 | +5 |
| 21 | Burnley FC | 11 | 4 | -12 |
| 22 | West Ham United FC | 1 | 3 | +4 |
| 23 | Liverpool FC | 1 | 3 | +2 |
| 24 | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 3 | +1 |
| 25 | Brentford FC | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 | Everton FC | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 | Arsenal FC | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| 28 | Burnley FC | 1 | 0 | -2 |
| 29 | Fulham FC | 1 | 0 | -2 |
| 30 | Chelsea FC | 1 | 0 | -3 |
| 31 | Wolverhampton Wanderers FC | 1 | 0 | -4 |
Every club carries an Elo rating that moves only with results — beat a stronger side and it rises, drop points to a weaker one and it falls. A Poisson goal model (the same engine behind our football totals and handicap predictions, with a shots-on-target-based xG proxy) turns the two teams' ratings into a full scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture.
We then play out the rest of the season 10,000 times, drawing a result for every fixture from those distributions and re-building the table each time. The percentages above are simple counts across those simulated seasons: how often a club finished first, in the top four, in a European spot, or in the relegation places.
The model only knows results and shot data — it cannot see transfers, injuries, managerial changes or squad depth until they show up in performances, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level. Probabilities are estimates, not promises: a 5% relegation chance still happens one season in twenty. We publish the projections in full; the value bets our model finds on individual matches are part of the paid plans and are never shown here.
30 settled value bets on Premier League matches so far.
Every club carries a results-driven Elo rating; a Poisson goal model turns both teams' ratings into a scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture. We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times and count how often each club wins the title, finishes in Europe, or gets relegated.
The pre-season projection is frozen shortly before matchday 1 and kept unchanged all season as a reference point. The live projection re-simulates nightly as results come in.
No — the model only knows results and shot data. Squad depth, managerial changes and injuries only show up once they show up in results, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level.
Yes — the same Elo and Poisson engine also powers our value bets on individual matches. This table projection is entirely free; the value bets on individual matches are part of the paid plans.