The biggest moves in de-vigged Pinnacle implied probabilities across upcoming games in the next 48 hours — football, tennis, NHL, NBA, MLB and more. We compare the earliest price taken more than a day before kickoff with the latest pre-match price, strip the bookmaker margin from both, and rank the moves. A sharp move means the best-informed market re-priced an outcome — it does not mean that outcome will happen, and it is not a betting tip.
| Kickoff | Sport | Match | Market moved toward | Open → Now | Move | Public lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 18 Jul, 02:10 | MLB ⚾ | Kansas City Royals – San Diego PadresMLB | San Diego Padres | 49.7% → 53.0% | +3.3pp | −0.2pp19 books |
Data refreshes roughly every 15 minutes. Times in CET/CEST.
We track Pinnacle, widely regarded as the sharpest bookmaker, and remove the vig (bookmaker margin) from its prices so they read as true implied probabilities. When an outcome's de-vigged implied probability shifts by 2 or more percentage points between the earliest price (more than 24 hours out) and the latest pre-kickoff price, it appears here.
Pinnacle welcomes winning players and takes very large limits, so its prices absorb the best-informed money in the market. That makes its line the closest public proxy to a true market consensus — softer bookmakers usually follow its moves rather than lead them.
No. A move means the price changed — the informed market decided the earlier price was wrong. By the time you see it, the new price already reflects that information, so there is usually no edge left in simply following it. This page is educational market data, not betting advice.
It compares the average de-vigged price across recreational ('soft') bookmakers with the de-vigged Pinnacle price for the same outcome. A positive lean means soft books price the outcome higher than the sharp market does — typically because they shade their lines toward the side the betting public favors. It is a price-based proxy: real bet counts and money splits are proprietary to each bookmaker, and any site claiming to show them for the whole market is estimating, at best. We show the column only when at least three soft books have a fresh pre-match price.
This page shows market data only — de-vigged Pinnacle prices and how they moved. It contains no picks, no model probabilities and no betting recommendations, and nothing here is betting advice. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.