The biggest moves in de-vigged Pinnacle implied probabilities across upcoming games in the next 48 hours — football, tennis, NHL, NBA, MLB and more. We compare the earliest price taken more than a day before kickoff with the latest pre-match price, strip the bookmaker margin from both, and rank the moves. A sharp move means the best-informed market re-priced an outcome — it does not mean that outcome will happen, and it is not a betting tip.
| Kickoff | Sport | Match | Market moved toward | Open → Now | Move | Public lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 18 Oct, 20:00 | NFL 🏈 | Philadelphia Eagles – Carolina PanthersNFL | Carolina Panthers | 46.0% → 62.3% | +16.3pp | −0.2pp17 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 19:00 | CFB 🏈 | Buffalo – MassachusettsNCAAF | Buffalo | 59.3% → 71.5% | +12.3pp | −0.3pp10 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 04:00 | mma | Chad Anheliger – Steven KoslowUFC | Steven Koslow | 45.6% → 57.5% | +11.8pp | — |
| Sun 18 Oct, 20:00 | NFL 🏈 | Atlanta Falcons – Chicago BearsNFL | Atlanta Falcons | 38.6% → 49.6% | +11.0pp | −0.8pp15 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 15:00 | Football ⚽ | Leeds United FC – Manchester United FCPremier League | Leeds United FC | 33.7% → 40.8% | +7.1pp | −0.3pp21 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 18:00 | CFB 🏈 | Kansas State – KansasNCAAF | Kansas | 32.9% → 39.6% | +6.7pp | −0.2pp12 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 13:30 | Football ⚽ | Millwall FC – Lincoln City FCChampionship | Millwall FC | 54.5% → 61.1% | +6.6pp | −1.9pp18 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 18:00 | CFB 🏈 | LSU – Mississippi StateNCAAF | LSU | 77.7% → 84.2% | +6.5pp | +0.8pp11 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 13:00 | Football ⚽ | 1. FC Kaiserslautern – VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 36.5% → 42.8% | +6.4pp | −0.1pp17 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 20:45 | Football ⚽ | AS Roma – Genoa CFCSerie A | Draw | 16.9% → 23.0% | +6.1pp | −0.2pp20 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 00:50 | mma | Joel Faglier – Javad MahjoubUFC | Joel Faglier | 48.8% → 54.7% | +5.9pp | −1.0pp11 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 01:30 | CFB 🏈 | UCLA – WisconsinNCAAF | Wisconsin | 39.2% → 45.1% | +5.9pp | −0.7pp9 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 16:00 | Football ⚽ | Brentford FC – Liverpool FCPremier League | Brentford FC | 34.1% → 39.7% | +5.6pp | −0.3pp21 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 14:00 | Football ⚽ | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona – Club Atlético de MadridLa Liga | Club Atlético de Madrid | 51.4% → 56.7% | +5.4pp | −1.0pp16 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 18:00 | CFB 🏈 | Indiana – Ohio StateNCAAF | Indiana | 36.5% → 41.8% | +5.3pp | +0.1pp12 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 16:45 | Football ⚽ | FC Groningen – AFC AjaxEredivisie | FC Groningen | 22.6% → 27.7% | +5.1pp | −0.4pp18 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 20:00 | Football ⚽ | NEC – Fortuna SittardEredivisie | Fortuna Sittard | 15.6% → 20.2% | +4.6pp | +0.2pp18 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 20:00 | NFL 🏈 | Cleveland Browns – Baltimore RavensNFL | Cleveland Browns | 33.6% → 38.2% | +4.6pp | +1.1pp17 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 | Football ⚽ | CA Osasuna – Real Racing Club de SantanderLa Liga | Real Racing Club de Santander | 21.7% → 26.2% | +4.5pp | +0.2pp17 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 21:30 | CFB 🏈 | Eastern Michigan – ToledoNCAAF | Toledo | 64.8% → 69.2% | +4.4pp | −0.1pp9 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 13:00 | Football ⚽ | VfL Wolfsburg – 1. FC Heidenheim 18462. Bundesliga | VfL Wolfsburg | 53.5% → 57.8% | +4.3pp | −2.3pp17 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 16:00 | Football ⚽ | Derby County FC – Stoke City FCChampionship | Stoke City FC | 35.6% → 40.0% | +4.3pp | −0.3pp18 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 23:00 | mma | Louis Jourdain – Timothy CuambaUFC | Timothy Cuamba | 35.4% → 39.6% | +4.2pp | −1.2pp15 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 15:00 | Football ⚽ | Angers SCO – Olympique de MarseilleLigue 1 | Olympique de Marseille | 43.3% → 47.3% | +4.1pp | −1.0pp19 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 23:45 | mma | Melissa Croden – Chelsea ChandlerUFC | Melissa Croden | 70.4% → 74.5% | +4.0pp | −1.4pp10 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 03:00 | CFB 🏈 | UTEP – San José StateNCAAF | UTEP | 25.9% → 29.7% | +3.8pp | +0.3pp9 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 04:00 | mma | Cody Chovancek – Su Young YouUFC | Su Young You | 41.2% → 45.0% | +3.8pp | — |
| Sat 17 Oct, 18:00 | CFB 🏈 | Army – Florida AtlanticNCAAF | Florida Atlantic | 42.9% → 46.5% | +3.7pp | +0.2pp12 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 23:00 | CFB 🏈 | Louisiana – TroyNCAAF | Troy | 38.3% → 42.1% | +3.7pp | −0.3pp9 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 21:30 | CFB 🏈 | Duke – North CarolinaNCAAF | North Carolina | 38.9% → 42.4% | +3.6pp | −0.8pp9 books |
Data refreshes roughly every 15 minutes. Times in CET/CEST.
We track Pinnacle, widely regarded as the sharpest bookmaker, and remove the vig (bookmaker margin) from its prices so they read as true implied probabilities. When an outcome's de-vigged implied probability shifts by 2 or more percentage points between the earliest price (more than 24 hours out) and the latest pre-kickoff price, it appears here.
Pinnacle welcomes winning players and takes very large limits, so its prices absorb the best-informed money in the market. That makes its line the closest public proxy to a true market consensus — softer bookmakers usually follow its moves rather than lead them.
No. A move means the price changed — the informed market decided the earlier price was wrong. By the time you see it, the new price already reflects that information, so there is usually no edge left in simply following it. This page is educational market data, not betting advice.
It compares the average de-vigged price across recreational ('soft') bookmakers with the de-vigged Pinnacle price for the same outcome. A positive lean means soft books price the outcome higher than the sharp market does — typically because they shade their lines toward the side the betting public favors. It is a price-based proxy: real bet counts and money splits are proprietary to each bookmaker, and any site claiming to show them for the whole market is estimating, at best. We show the column only when at least three soft books have a fresh pre-match price.
This page shows market data only — de-vigged Pinnacle prices and how they moved. It contains no picks, no model probabilities and no betting recommendations, and nothing here is betting advice. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.