Value Bet Results — 2026-06-25: 9-8, +1.7 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-06-25 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 9-8 across 18 bets, +1.7 units, average CLV -1.3pp.

Football

• Ecuador vs Germany — Germany -0.50: ❌ Lost (-1.82u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Tunisia vs Netherlands — Netherlands to win: ✅ Won (+0.70u, CLV +2.7pp)
• Tunisia vs Netherlands — Under3.0: ❌ Lost (-2.06u, CLV +17.5pp)
• Japan vs Sweden — Over2.5: ❌ Lost (-1.29u, CLV +5.3pp)
• Japan vs Sweden — Japan +0: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV -9.5pp)
• Paraguay vs Australia — Over2.5: ❌ Lost (-2.37u, CLV -35.2pp)

Tennis

• Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova — Ekaterina Alexandrova: ❌ Lost (-1.30u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate — Nicolas Mejia: ✅ Won (+2.37u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Dane Sweeny vs Tomas Barrios Vera — Dane Sweeny: ✅ Won (+2.45u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Oceane Dodin vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew — Under 20.5: ❌ Lost (-1.50u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Katarzyna Kawa vs Kayla Day — Under 21.0: ✅ Won (+1.87u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Colton Smith vs Michael Zheng — Michael Zheng: ✅ Won (+2.24u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic — Vilius Gaubas: ✅ Won (+2.80u, CLV +7.6pp)
• Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Otto Virtanen — Otto Virtanen: ✅ Won (+1.45u, CLV +2.4pp)
• Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreescu — Aliaksandra Sasnovich: ❌ Lost (-2.26u, CLV -2.8pp)
• Emma Navarro vs Elena Gabriela Ruse — Emma Navarro: ❌ Lost (-3.47u, CLV -2.9pp)

Baseball

• Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners — Seattle Mariners: ✅ Won (+2.59u, CLV -0.4pp)
• San Francisco Giants vs Athletics — Athletics: ✅ Won (+1.28u, CLV +0.0pp)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.