Value Bet Results — 2026-06-28: 6-8, -3.2 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-06-28 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 6-8 across 14 bets, -3.2 units, average CLV +3.4pp.

Football

• South Africa vs Canada — Over2.5: ❌ Lost (-2.21u, CLV +3.2pp)

Baseball

• Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals — Baltimore Orioles -1.5: ❌ Lost (-1.21u, CLV +5.4pp)
• Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals — Over 9.5: ✅ Won (+2.04u, CLV +3.5pp)
• Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers — Over 8.5: ❌ Lost (-1.30u, CLV +7.6pp)
• Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros — Over 8.5: ✅ Won (+1.52u, CLV +1.5pp)
• Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners — Seattle Mariners: ❌ Lost (-1.33u, CLV -4.3pp)
• New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies — Over 8.5: ✅ Won (+1.82u, CLV +4.2pp)
• New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies — Philadelphia Phillies: ✅ Won (+0.67u, CLV +3.6pp)
• Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs — Chicago Cubs +1.5: ✅ Won (+1.10u, CLV +7.1pp)
• Minnesota Twins vs Colorado Rockies — Colorado Rockies: ❌ Lost (-1.64u, CLV +2.0pp)
• Minnesota Twins vs Colorado Rockies — Minnesota Twins -1.5: ❌ Lost (-1.06u, CLV +0.0pp)
• San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves — Atlanta Braves: ❌ Lost (-0.88u, CLV +4.5pp)
• San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves — Over 7.5: ❌ Lost (-1.64u, CLV +1.5pp)
• Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees — New York Yankees +1.5: ✅ Won (+0.96u, CLV +6.8pp)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.