Value Bet Results — 2026-06-29: 14-19, -0.4 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-06-29 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 14-19 across 34 bets, -0.4 units, average CLV +4.6pp.

Football

• Brazil vs Japan — Over2.5: ✅ Won (+2.51u, CLV +9.0pp)
• Germany vs Paraguay — Germany +0: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +4.0pp)

Tennis

• Belinda Bencic vs Mika Stojsavljevic — Belinda Bencic: ✅ Won (+0.47u, CLV +7.3pp)
• Jessica Pegula vs Darja Vidmanova — Over 18.5: ✅ Won (+1.03u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse — Emilio Nava: ❌ Lost (-1.18u, CLV +1.3pp)
• Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Under 37.5: ✅ Won (+1.55u, CLV +7.2pp)
• Shintaro Mochizuki vs Max Basing — Max Basing: ❌ Lost (-1.23u, CLV +8.1pp)
• Ann Li vs Zeynep Sonmez — Under 21.5: ❌ Lost (-1.53u, CLV +5.1pp)
• Alycia Parks vs Alicia Dudeney — Under 21.5: ✅ Won (+1.15u, CLV +1.0pp)
• Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart — Harriet Dart: ❌ Lost (-0.50u, CLV +2.6pp)
• Hamad Medjedovic vs Sebastian Ofner — Sebastian Ofner: ✅ Won (+1.85u, CLV -1.4pp)
• Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca — Under 35.5: ✅ Won (+1.12u, CLV +2.0pp)
• Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic — Adam Walton: ❌ Lost (-1.34u, CLV +3.6pp)
• Mingge Xu vs Daria Kasatkina — Over 19.5: ✅ Won (+1.08u, CLV +3.0pp)
• Claire Liu vs Hanne Vandewinkel — Hanne Vandewinkel: ❌ Lost (-1.22u, CLV +2.3pp)
• Claire Liu vs Hanne Vandewinkel — Under 21.5: ❌ Lost (-2.21u, CLV +6.3pp)
• Ethan Quinn vs Luciano Darderi — Luciano Darderi: ❌ Lost (-1.23u, CLV -3.2pp)
• Jan Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baez — Sebastian Baez: ❌ Lost (-0.54u, CLV +8.6pp)
• Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka — Over 19.5: ❌ Lost (-1.01u, CLV +11.1pp)
• Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia — Adolfo Daniel Vallejo: ❌ Lost (-1.94u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Anastasia Potapova — Jessica Bouzas Maneiro: ✅ Won (+2.55u, CLV +1.8pp)
• Barbora Krejcikova vs Hannah Klugman — Under 18.5: ✅ Won (+3.81u, CLV +8.3pp)
• Tamara Korpatsch vs Coco Gauff — Over 17.5: ❌ Lost (-1.03u, CLV +2.6pp)

Baseball

• Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox — Over 9.5: ✅ Won (+1.54u, CLV +1.5pp)
• Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Pittsburgh Pirates: ✅ Won (+2.54u, CLV +2.0pp)
• Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets — Over 8.5: ❌ Lost (-1.75u, CLV +7.3pp)
• Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets — New York Mets: ❌ Lost (-1.53u, CLV +3.8pp)
• Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals: ❌ Lost (-1.30u, CLV +4.3pp)
• Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals — Boston Red Sox -1.5: ✅ Won (+1.64u, CLV +0.9pp)
• Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals — Under 8.5: ❌ Lost (-1.91u, CLV +9.6pp)
• Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds — Cincinnati Reds: ❌ Lost (-0.95u, CLV +7.3pp)
• Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres — Under 10.5: ✅ Won (+2.43u, CLV +7.7pp)
• Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins — Under 8.5: ❌ Lost (-1.92u, CLV +6.0pp)
• Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins — Under 11.0: ❌ Lost (-1.35u, CLV +3.5pp)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.