Value Bet Results — 2026-07-02: 12-14, -2.2 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-07-02 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 12-14 across 26 bets, -2.2 units, average CLV +4.5pp.

Football

• Spain vs Austria — Spain to win: ✅ Won (+1.75u, CLV +1.5pp)
• Portugal vs Croatia — Portugal to win: ✅ Won (+2.13u, CLV +4.7pp)
• Portugal vs Croatia — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-1.16u, CLV -1.0pp)

Tennis

• Diana Shnaider vs Liudmila Samsonova — Liudmila Samsonova: ✅ Won (+2.41u, CLV +0.5pp)
• Daria Snigur vs Leolia Jeanjean — Daria Snigur: ✅ Won (+1.65u, CLV +11.8pp)
• Gabriel Diallo vs Lorenzo Sonego — Lorenzo Sonego: ✅ Won (+2.79u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen — Arthur Fery: ✅ Won (+1.34u, CLV +4.1pp)
• Tyra Caterina Grant vs Marie Bouzkova — Under 20.5: ❌ Lost (-1.62u, CLV +2.5pp)
• Zizou Bergs vs Jaime Faria — Jaime Faria: ❌ Lost (-1.09u, CLV +5.5pp)
• Katie Swan vs Madison Keys — Over 19.5: ❌ Lost (-1.74u, CLV +1.0pp)
• Alexandra Eala vs Maya Joint — Alexandra Eala: ✅ Won (+0.80u, CLV +8.8pp)
• Zachary Svajda vs Kamil Majchrzak — Zachary Svajda: ✅ Won (+1.91u, CLV +18.8pp)
• Quentin Halys vs Marcos Giron — Quentin Halys: ❌ Lost (-2.28u, CLV -5.8pp)
• Jacob Fearnley vs Jaume Munar — Jacob Fearnley: ❌ Lost (-0.81u, CLV +7.1pp)
• Kamilla Rakhimova vs Maria Sakkari — Kamilla Rakhimova: ❌ Lost (-2.01u, CLV +5.7pp)
• Kamilla Rakhimova vs Maria Sakkari — Under 21.5: ❌ Lost (-1.24u, CLV +6.8pp)
• Matteo Berrettini vs Arthur Fils — Arthur Fils: ❌ Lost (-5.00u, CLV +11.3pp)
• Elise Mertens vs Maria Timofeeva — Under 19.5: ❌ Lost (-1.42u, CLV +2.0pp)
• Caty Mcnally vs Elena Rybakina — Under 20.5: ✅ Won (+1.83u, CLV +0.5pp)

Baseball

• Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins — Under 11.5: ❌ Lost (-2.15u, CLV +1.5pp)
• Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox — Chicago White Sox: ✅ Won (+2.12u, CLV +2.7pp)
• Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals — St. Louis Cardinals: ✅ Won (+1.39u, CLV -0.5pp)
• Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers — Over 7.5: ✅ Won (+2.16u, CLV +2.0pp)
• Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers — Detroit Tigers: ❌ Lost (-1.28u, CLV +9.2pp)
• Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers — Detroit Tigers +1.5: ❌ Lost (-1.00u, CLV +5.5pp)
• Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels — Over 7.5: ❌ Lost (-1.71u, CLV +2.0pp)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.