Value Bet Results — 2026-07-04: 14-10, +12.9 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-07-04 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 14-10 across 24 bets, +12.9 units, average CLV +1.5pp.

Football

• Canada vs Morocco — Morocco to win: ✅ Won (+2.69u, CLV -2.7pp)
• Paraguay vs France — France to win: ✅ Won (+1.00u, CLV -0.8pp)

Tennis

• Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk — Under 21.5: ❌ Lost (-1.42u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Liudmila Samsonova vs Marie Bouzkova — Under 21.5: ❌ Lost (-1.47u, CLV +7.3pp)
• Daria Snigur vs Ashlyn Krueger — Ashlyn Krueger: ✅ Won (+2.60u, CLV -10.5pp)
• Daria Snigur vs Ashlyn Krueger — Under 21.5: ✅ Won (+1.33u, CLV -1.4pp)
• Jasmine Paolini vs Maria Sakkari — Jasmine Paolini: ✅ Won (+1.80u, CLV +2.3pp)
• Karen Khachanov vs Flavio Cobolli — Karen Khachanov: ❌ Lost (-2.07u, CLV +13.6pp)
• Alexandra Eala vs Iga Swiatek — Under 20.5: ❌ Lost (-1.38u, CLV +3.6pp)
• Zizou Bergs vs Arthur Fery — Arthur Fery: ✅ Won (+3.21u, CLV +6.0pp)
• Sorana Cirstea vs Linda Noskova — Sorana Cirstea: ❌ Lost (-0.89u, CLV +9.2pp)
• Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini — Matteo Berrettini: ❌ Lost (-1.13u, CLV +9.3pp)
• Frances Tiafoe vs Alexander Bublik — Alexander Bublik: ✅ Won (+2.20u, CLV +2.5pp)

Baseball

• New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins — Minnesota Twins +1.5: ✅ Won (+0.55u, CLV +4.7pp)
• New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins — Over 10.5: ✅ Won (+1.75u, CLV +1.5pp)
• Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers — Detroit Tigers: ❌ Lost (-1.49u, CLV -2.9pp)
• Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox — Cleveland Guardians -1.5: ❌ Lost (-1.38u, CLV -3.0pp)
• Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles — Over 9.5: ✅ Won (+2.51u, CLV -0.5pp)
• Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets — Under 8.0: ❌ Lost (-1.43u, CLV +5.9pp)
• Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets — Atlanta Braves -1.5: ✅ Won (+1.85u, CLV +6.5pp)
• Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies — Under 8.5: ✅ Won (+1.99u, CLV +0.5pp)
• Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox — Boston Red Sox: ❌ Lost (-1.06u, CLV -2.4pp)
• Athletics vs Miami Marlins — Under 10.5: ✅ Won (+1.68u, CLV +2.4pp)
• Athletics vs Miami Marlins — Miami Marlins: ✅ Won (+1.44u, CLV +4.6pp)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.