Date: Tue, 23 June 2026 at 13:30
Naomi Osaka faces Elise Mertens at Bad Homburg Open on grass in a best-of-3 format. Here is how our model reads the matchup.
Our model makes Elise Mertens a clear favourite at 63% to win. Their Elo ratings are tightly bunched (1695 to 1702).
Grass is not Naomi Osaka's favoured surface; grass is not Elise Mertens's favoured surface; Naomi Osaka arrives in form, winning 7 of the last 10.
Naomi Osaka leads the head-to-head 4–3; Elise Mertens won the most recent meeting in 2024.
On total games, the model projects about 23.6 and leans over the 22.5 line.
Expected ~23.6 games · leans Over 22.5