Date: Sat, 20 June 2026 at 10:08
Aryna Sabalenka faces Jessica Pegula at German Open on hard court in a best-of-3 format. Here is how our model reads the matchup.
Our model makes Aryna Sabalenka a heavy favourite at 75% to win. Aryna Sabalenka holds a commanding 166-point Elo edge (2161 to 1995).
Aryna Sabalenka arrives in form, winning 7 of the last 10; Jessica Pegula arrives in form, winning 7 of the last 10.
Aryna Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 9–3; Aryna Sabalenka won the most recent meeting in 2025.
On total games, the model projects about 23.4 and leans over the 22.5 line.
Expected ~23.4 games · leans Over 22.5