Date: Mon, 29 June 2026 at 10:00
Denis Shapovalov faces Pablo Carreno Busta at Wimbledon on grass in a best-of-5 format. Here is how our model reads the matchup.
Our model makes Denis Shapovalov a clear favourite at 67% to win. Denis Shapovalov leads on Elo by 93 points (1515 to 1422).
Denis Shapovalov has struggled lately, 3 wins from 10.
Pablo Carreno Busta leads the head-to-head 6–2; Pablo Carreno Busta won the most recent meeting in 2026.
On total games, the model projects about 42.2 and leans under the 38 line.
Expected ~42.2 games · leans Under 38