Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins: Prediction, Analysis & Stats — MLB
The matchup
Colorado Rockies take on Miami Marlins in the MLB. Both sides arrive with their own story — here is our model's full, data-driven read: win probability, expected goals or points, recent form and the head-to-head record. And at the end: where the model sees betting value — without giving away the actual pick.
What our model predicts
Our model favours Miami Marlins at 52% to win, Colorado Rockies at 48%.
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See today's value bets — free accountA probability is not a certainty: even a strong favourite drops matches. That is exactly why our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in the direction anyone can see.
Pitching & run expectancy
Starting pitchers: Kyle Freeland (L) for Colorado Rockies vs Max Meyer (R) for Miami Marlins. The starter is the single biggest driver of expected run production in baseball.
Expected runs: 8.9 (3.96 Colorado Rockies + 4.98 Miami Marlins). At the nearest line the model leans Over 8.5 at ~54%.
Form & head-to-head
Colorado Rockies have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first). Miami Marlins have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The last 5 meetings (Colorado Rockies–Miami Marlins): 3–14, 7–10, 4–3, 4–3, 2–1. On a small sample the head-to-head is context, not a dominant signal — the model's depth carries the probability, not a handful of individual results.
What to watch
The model makes Miami Marlins the favourite at 52%, but at 48% Colorado Rockies is far from a write-off. The early stages often decide it: whoever sets the tempo first can swing the probabilities quickly. Watch whether the favourite asserts itself early or the game stays open — that is where the model's lean is won or lost.
Where the value is
Our model has flagged a value bet on this match. We don't publish the selection, the odds, or the stake — the edge is in the precision of the numbers, not the direction anyone can see. The full pick and live odds are on the match page; the wider picture is in the MLB hub. New to value betting? See our guide.