Raphael Collignon vs Arthur Fils: Prediction, Analysis & Stats — ATP Tour

The matchup

Raphael Collignon take on Arthur Fils in the ATP Tour. Both sides arrive with their own story — here is our model's full, data-driven read: win probability, expected goals or points, recent form and the head-to-head record. And at the end: where the model sees betting value — without giving away the actual pick.

What our model predicts

Our model favours Arthur Fils at 65% to win, Raphael Collignon at 35%.

A probability is not a certainty: even a strong favourite drops matches. That is exactly why our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in the direction anyone can see.

Surface, class & serve

This is a grass-court match. On this surface over the last 12 months: Raphael Collignon 66.7% (2–1, small sample — read as direction). The Elo gap (+168 to Arthur Fils) is what drives the win probability — a class-and-history argument more than a recent-form one.

On serve, Raphael Collignon 76% of first-serve points and 35% of return points; Arthur Fils 74% of first-serve points and 35% of return points. Serve is the most stable quantity in tennis — whoever holds dictates how long the match runs.

Total games

Our model projects about 41.0 total games against the market line of 40.0 — so a lean toward the Over 40.0. Even a lopsided match can produce a high total when the surface helps servers: the underdog holds serve more often, and it takes more games to close a set.

Form & head-to-head

Raphael Collignon have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-W, most recent first). Arthur Fils have won 2 of their last 5 (D-L-L-W-W, most recent first).

There are no prior meetings in our dataset — effectively a first encounter. An empty head-to-head carries almost no signal; the model weights it close to zero against the depth built over hundreds of matches. We flag that honestly rather than pretend the H2H carries information it does not.

What to watch

The model makes Arthur Fils the favourite at 65%, but at 35% Raphael Collignon is far from a write-off. The early stages often decide it: whoever sets the tempo first can swing the probabilities quickly. Watch whether the favourite asserts itself early or the game stays open — that is where the model's lean is won or lost.

Where the value is

Our model has flagged a value bet on this match. We don't publish the selection, the odds, or the stake — the edge is in the precision of the numbers, not the direction anyone can see. The full pick and live odds are on the match page; the wider picture is in the tennis hub. New to value betting? See our guide.