Value Bet Results — 2026-07-05: 5-6, -4.0 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-07-05 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 5-6 across 11 bets, -4.0 units, average CLV +3.9pp.

Football

• Brazil vs Norway — Norway +0.50: ✅ Won (+1.34u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Mexico vs England — England +0: ✅ Won (+2.91u, CLV +1.5pp)

Tennis

• Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka — Naomi Osaka: ✅ Won (+2.36u, CLV -2.0pp)
• Jannik Sinner vs Shintaro Mochizuki — Under 27.5: ❌ Lost (-1.54u, CLV +11.4pp)

Baseball

• Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets — New York Mets: ✅ Won (+1.72u, CLV +5.7pp)
• Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals — St. Louis Cardinals: ❌ Lost (-1.68u, CLV +2.2pp)
• Athletics vs Miami Marlins — Miami Marlins +1.5: ✅ Won (+0.62u, CLV +5.2pp)
• Athletics vs Miami Marlins — Under 9.5: ❌ Lost (-5.00u, CLV +6.7pp)
• Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays — Toronto Blue Jays: ❌ Lost (-1.81u, CLV +6.0pp)
• Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays — Over 7.5: ❌ Lost (-1.57u, CLV +3.0pp)
• Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox — Boston Red Sox: ❌ Lost (-1.37u, CLV -2.1pp)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.