Value Bet Results — 2026-07-06: 7-6, -0.6 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-07-06 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 7-6 across 13 bets, -0.6 units, average CLV +2.3pp.

Football

• USA vs Belgium — USA +0: ❌ Lost (-1.65u, CLV +1.1pp)
• USA vs Belgium — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-1.92u, CLV +9.9pp)

Tennis

• Marie Bouzkova vs Elise Mertens — Elise Mertens: ✅ Won (+1.33u, CLV +1.1pp)
• Marie Bouzkova vs Elise Mertens — Under 22.0: ✅ Won (+1.35u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Jasmine Paolini vs Alexandra Eala — Under 21.5: ❌ Lost (-1.38u, CLV +2.0pp)
• Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery — Grigor Dimitrov: ❌ Lost (-3.05u, CLV +4.1pp)

Baseball

• Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees — Under 7.0: ✅ Won (+1.65u, CLV +2.0pp)
• Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees — New York Yankees +1.5: ✅ Won (+0.87u, CLV +6.2pp)
• Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros — Houston Astros: ❌ Lost (-1.85u, CLV +1.5pp)
• Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets — New York Mets: ❌ Lost (-1.71u, CLV -1.1pp)
• St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers — Milwaukee Brewers: ✅ Won (+1.58u, CLV +0.0pp)
• San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Arizona Diamondbacks: ✅ Won (+2.23u, CLV +0.0pp)
• San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue Jays — Toronto Blue Jays: ✅ Won (+1.90u, CLV +0.5pp)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.