Value Bet Results — 2026-07-09: 5-6, -3.3 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-07-09 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 5-6 across 11 bets, -3.3 units, average CLV -0.8pp.

Tennis

• Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauff — Coco Gauff: ❌ Lost (-2.78u, CLV +1.5pp)

Baseball

• Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves — Atlanta Braves: ❌ Lost (-1.48u, CLV +6.1pp)
• Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees — New York Yankees: ✅ Won (+2.07u, CLV +3.9pp)
• Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs — Chicago Cubs +1.5: ✅ Won (+0.74u, CLV +5.8pp)
• Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs — Chicago Cubs: ✅ Won (+1.03u, CLV -28.2pp)
• Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners — Seattle Mariners: ❌ Lost (-1.88u, CLV -2.2pp)
• Detroit Tigers vs Athletics — Athletics: ❌ Lost (-0.56u, CLV +8.6pp)
• Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies — Philadelphia Phillies: ❌ Lost (-1.36u, CLV -3.5pp)
• St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers — Over 8.5: ✅ Won (+1.53u, CLV -0.5pp)
• San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Arizona Diamondbacks: ❌ Lost (-2.21u, CLV +0.0pp)
• San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies — San Francisco Giants -1.5: ✅ Won (+1.65u, CLV +1.1pp)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.