Running Back ist die knappste Position im Fantasy: Echte Three-Down-Workhorses gibt es kaum noch, Committees fressen Touches, und der Abstand von der Elite zur Replacement-Ebene ist der steilste im ganzen Board. Genau diese Knappheit misst Value over Replacement (VOR) — und deshalb dominieren RBs weiter die ersten Runden, auch in PPR, wo fangende Backs zusätzlich einen Reception-Floor auf ihr Rushing-Volumen stapeln. Triffst du deine frühen RB-Picks, spielt sich der Rest deines Drafts von vorne; verfehlst du sie, jagst du die ganze Saison der Waiver-Wire hinterher.
Spieler, die unser Board deutlich höher rankt, als der Markt sie draftet — die Lücke zwischen VOR-Rang und öffentlicher ADP ist der Draft-Value.
Tier-Brüche (T2, T3, …) markieren echte Abstufungen im projizierten Value — Spieler innerhalb eines Tiers liegen eng beieinander; zwischen Tiers ist die Lücke groß genug, um deinen Pick zu ändern.
| # | Spieler | Team | Prog. Pkt | VOR | TD% | ADP | ’25-Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T1Christian McCaffrey | SF | 389 | 252 | 37% | 4.9 | RB1 |
| 2 | Bijan Robinson | ATL | 376 | 240 | 41% | 1.6 | RB2 |
| 3 | De'Von Achane | MIA | 310 | 174 | 46% | 9.1 | RB5 |
| 4 | Chase Brown | CIN | 288 | 151 | 31% | 16.0 | RB8 |
| 5 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 270 | 133 | 35% | 1.9 | RB3 |
| 6 | Ashton Jeanty | LV | 262 | 125 | 31% | 12.3 | RB11 |
| 7 | T2Saquon Barkley | PHI | 253 | 117 | 38% | 19.5 | RB15 |
| 8 | Kyren Williams | LA | 240 | 104 | 41% | 32.5 | RB9 |
| 9 | Travis Etienne | JAX | 236 | 99 | 29% | 37.7 | RB10 |
| 10 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | 236 | 99 | 38% | 7.7 | RB4 |
| 11 | Derrick Henry | BAL | 223 | 87 | 34% | 15.5 | RB7 |
| 12 | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 222 | 86 | 23% | 70.3 | RB24 |
| 13 | T3Tony Pollard | TEN | 219 | 82 | 20% | 74.0 | RB23 |
| 14 | Kenneth Walker III | SEA | 214 | 77 | 33% | 22.6 | RB22 |
| 15 | James Cook | BUF | 209 | 72 | 31% | 13.7 | RB6 |
| 16 | Breece Hall | NYJ | 205 | 68 | 29% | 30.5 | RB19 |
| 17 | D'Andre Swift | CHI | 203 | 66 | 36% | 48.0 | RB14 |
| 18 | RJ Harvey | DEN | 201 | 64 | 38% | 90.0 | RB20 |
| 19 | T4Kenneth Gainwell | PIT | 193 | 56 | 27% | — | RB16 |
| 20 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG | 190 | 54 | 20% | 157.1 | RB28 |
| 21 | Javonte Williams | DAL | 189 | 52 | 26% | 35.0 | RB12 |
| 22 | Jaylen Warren | PIT | 188 | 51 | 17% | 66.2 | RB18 |
| 23 | Woody Marks | HOU | 185 | 48 | 20% | 142.8 | RB30 |
| 24 | Josh Jacobs | GB | 180 | 43 | 32% | 28.8 | RB13 |
| 25 | T5Quinshon Judkins | CLE | 163 | 27 | 20% | 50.1 | RB26 |
| 26 | Rico Dowdle | CAR | 160 | 24 | 23% | 79.2 | RB17 |
| 27 | Zach Charbonnet | SEA | 155 | 19 | 28% | 157.1 | RB25 |
| 28 | Bucky Irving | TB | 151 | 15 | 34% | 47.3 | RB34 |
| 29 | Aaron Jones | MIN | 146 | 10 | 30% | 97.8 | RB41 |
| 30 | TreVeyon Henderson | NE | 137 | 0 | 11% | 58.1 | RB21 |
| 31 | T6Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 136 | -0 | 21% | 82.3 | RB38 |
| 32 | Cam Skattebo | NYG | 135 | -2 | 42% | 37.7 | RB37 |
| 33 | Devin Singletary | NYG | 129 | -8 | 21% | — | RB45 |
| 34 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | 129 | -8 | 27% | 121.8 | RB31 |
| 35 | Omarion Hampton | LAC | 128 | -9 | 44% | 16.2 | RB35 |
| 36 | David Montgomery | DET | 126 | -11 | 37% | 56.0 | RB27 |
| 37 | T7Alvin Kamara | NO | 122 | -15 | 29% | 152.8 | RB46 |
| 38 | Kareem Hunt | KC | 120 | -17 | 27% | — | RB29 |
| 39 | Dylan Sampson | CLE | 117 | -20 | 16% | — | RB54 |
| 40 | Rachaad White | TB | 115 | -22 | 19% | 103.5 | RB32 |
| 41 | Michael Carter | ARI | 112 | -25 | 16% | — | RB48 |
| 42 | Tyjae Spears | TEN | 111 | -26 | 21% | 135.4 | RB44 |
| 43 | T8Tyler Allgeier | ATL | 105 | -31 | 17% | 167.8 | RB39 |
| 44 | Kyle Monangai | CHI | 105 | -32 | 17% | 105.2 | RB33 |
| 45 | Kimani Vidal | LAC | 104 | -33 | 15% | — | RB42 |
| 46 | Isiah Pacheco | KC | 102 | -35 | 20% | 151.8 | RB56 |
| 47 | Ty Johnson | BUF | 102 | -35 | 17% | — | RB47 |
| 48 | J.K. Dobbins | DEN | 100 | -37 | 25% | 94.4 | RB43 |
| 49 | T9Bam Knight | ARI | 97 | -39 | 26% | — | RB49 |
| 50 | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS | 89 | -48 | 21% | 157.0 | RB51 |
| 51 | Samaje Perine | CIN | 89 | -48 | 14% | — | RB57 |
| 52 | Jordan Mason | MIN | 88 | -49 | 14% | 129.3 | RB36 |
| 53 | Isaiah Davis | NYJ | 82 | -55 | 11% | — | RB59 |
| 54 | Blake Corum | LA | 80 | -57 | 9% | 121.5 | RB40 |
| 55 | T10Jeremy McNichols | WAS | 80 | -57 | 14% | — | RB58 |
| 56 | Emanuel Wilson | GB | 75 | -62 | 10% | — | RB50 |
| 57 | Nick Chubb | HOU | 71 | -66 | 26% | — | RB55 |
| 58 | Sean Tucker | TB | 69 | -68 | 24% | — | RB52 |
| 59 | Ray Davis | BUF | 69 | -68 | 13% | — | RB65 |
| 60 | Devin Neal | NO | 68 | -68 | 16% | — | RB64 |
| 61 | T11Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | 67 | -70 | 31% | 61.4 | RB53 |
| 62 | Keaton Mitchell | BAL | 67 | -70 | 12% | 167.8 | RB66 |
| 63 | Brashard Smith | KC | 62 | -74 | 9% | — | RB61 |
| 64 | Emari Demercado | ARI | 61 | -75 | 11% | — | RB63 |
| 65 | Justice Hill | BAL | 59 | -77 | 16% | — | RB60 |
| 66 | Tank Bigsby | PHI | 57 | -79 | 13% | 153.0 | RB68 |
| 67 | T12Jerome Ford | CLE | 55 | -82 | 14% | — | RB71 |
| 68 | Hunter Luepke | DAL | 53 | -84 | 8% | — | RB75 |
| 69 | Brian Robinson | SF | 52 | -85 | 14% | — | RB62 |
| 70 | Chris Brooks | GB | 51 | -86 | 8% | — | RB80 |
| 71 | Jaylen Wright | MIA | 48 | -89 | 13% | — | RB69 |
| 72 | Zavier Scott | MIN | 48 | -89 | 9% | — | RB72 |
| 73 | T13Ollie Gordon II | MIA | 46 | -91 | 15% | — | RB67 |
| 74 | Raheem Mostert | LV | 42 | -94 | 18% | — | RB83 |
| 75 | Audric Estimé | NO | 41 | -95 | 16% | — | RB70 |
| 76 | James Conner | ARI | 41 | -95 | 43% | — | RB79 |
| 77 | Tyler Badie | DEN | 41 | -96 | 8% | — | RB77 |
| 78 | Jawhar Jordan | HOU | 39 | -97 | 10% | — | RB82 |
| 79 | T14Ameer Abdullah | IND | 39 | -98 | 12% | — | RB74 |
| 80 | Malik Davis | DAL | 37 | -100 | 13% | — | RB73 |
| 81 | Kendre Miller | NO | 37 | -100 | 10% | — | RB78 |
| 82 | Rasheen Ali | BAL | 36 | -101 | 12% | — | RB88 |
| 83 | Dare Ogunbowale | HOU | 35 | -102 | 10% | — | RB85 |
| 84 | Trey Benson | ARI | 33 | -104 | 13% | — | RB76 |
| 85 | T15LeQuint Allen Jr. | JAX | 33 | -104 | 7% | — | RB87 |
| 86 | Andrew Beck | NYJ | 32 | -105 | 9% | — | RB89 |
| 87 | Jaleel McLaughlin | DEN | 30 | -107 | 9% | — | RB81 |
| 88 | Miles Sanders | DAL | 29 | -108 | 18% | — | RB84 |
| 89 | Will Shipley | PHI | 23 | -113 | 7% | — | RB92 |
| 90 | Trayveon Williams | CLE | 23 | -114 | 8% | — | RB95 |
| 91 | T16George Holani | SEA | 21 | -116 | 7% | — | RB96 |
| 92 | Antonio Gibson | NE | 21 | -116 | 19% | — | RB93 |
| 93 | Najee Harris | LAC | 21 | -116 | 30% | — | RB101 |
| 94 | Jaret Patterson | LAC | 21 | -116 | 10% | — | RB86 |
| 95 | Raheim Sanders | CLE | 20 | -116 | 20% | — | RB91 |
| 96 | Dylan Laube | LV | 20 | -117 | 8% | — | RB117 |
| 97 | T17Tahj Brooks | CIN | 19 | -118 | 9% | — | RB115 |
| 98 | Adam Prentice | DEN | 19 | -118 | 6% | — | RB97 |
| 99 | AJ Dillon | PHI | 18 | -118 | 11% | — | RB102 |
| 100 | Terrell Jennings | NE | 18 | -118 | 12% | — | RB98 |
| 101 | Kaleb Johnson | PIT | 18 | -119 | 9% | — | RB109 |
| 102 | Zamir White | LV | 17 | -120 | 8% | — | RB106 |
| 103 | T18Cam Akers | SEA | 17 | -120 | 13% | — | RB112 |
| 104 | Khalil Herbert | NYJ | 16 | -120 | 12% | — | RB113 |
| 105 | Jaydon Blue | DAL | 16 | -120 | 9% | — | RB90 |
| 106 | Austin Ekeler | WAS | 16 | -121 | 27% | — | RB100 |
| 107 | Braelon Allen | NYJ | 15 | -122 | 12% | — | RB94 |
| 108 | Evan Hull | NO | 14 | -123 | 8% | — | RB114 |
| 109 | T19Tyler Goodson | IND | 14 | -123 | 8% | — | RB118 |
| 110 | DJ Giddens | IND | 14 | -123 | 7% | — | RB107 |
| 111 | Julius Chestnut | TEN | 14 | -123 | 8% | — | RB122 |
| 112 | Corey Kiner | ARI | 13 | -124 | 8% | — | RB108 |
| 113 | Kene Nwangwu | NYJ | 12 | -125 | 8% | — | RB119 |
| 114 | Hassan Haskins | LAC | 12 | -125 | 12% | — | RB104 |
| 115 | T20Dameon Pierce | KC | 11 | -125 | 11% | — | RB123 |
| 116 | Ty Chandler | MIN | 11 | -126 | 10% | — | RB110 |
| 117 | British Brooks | HOU | 11 | -126 | 7% | — | RB111 |
| 118 | Jacob Saylors | DET | 10 | -126 | 8% | — | RB130 |
| 119 | Trevor Etienne | CAR | 9 | -128 | 8% | — | RB99 |
| 120 | Craig Reynolds | DET | 9 | -128 | 7% | — | RB136 |
| 121 | T21Travis Homer | CHI | 8 | -128 | 8% | — | RB150 |
| 122 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | 8 | -129 | 16% | — | RB121 |
| 123 | Isaac Guerendo | SF | 7 | -130 | 10% | — | RB142 |
| 124 | Sione Vaki | DET | 7 | -130 | 8% | — | RB135 |
| 125 | Chase Edmonds | WAS | 7 | -130 | 9% | — | RB141 |
| 126 | DeeJay Dallas | JAX | 7 | -130 | 12% | — | RB126 |
| 127 | T22Roschon Johnson | CHI | 7 | -130 | 12% | — | RB128 |
| 128 | D'Ernest Johnson | NE | 6 | -130 | 7% | — | RB125 |
| 129 | Ronnie Rivers | LA | 5 | -132 | 7% | — | RB120 |
| 130 | Elijah Mitchell | KC | 5 | -132 | 28% | — | RB145 |
| 131 | Trey Sermon | PIT | 4 | -132 | 9% | — | RB147 |
| 132 | Kalel Mullings | TEN | 4 | -133 | 8% | — | RB132 |
| 133 | T23Nyheim Hines | NO | 4 | -133 | 9% | — | RB151 |
| 134 | Velus Jones Jr. | SEA | 4 | -133 | 8% | — | RB124 |
| 135 | Gary Brightwell | CIN | 3 | -134 | 9% | — | RB148 |
| 136 | Myles Gaskin | SEA | 2 | -135 | 19% | — | RB133 |
| 137 | Jordan Mims | TEN | 2 | -135 | 15% | — | RB139 |
| 138 | Robbie Ouzts | SEA | 2 | -135 | 7% | — | RB140 |
| 139 | T24Avery Williams | NYJ | 2 | -135 | 10% | — | RB143 |
| 140 | Eric Gray | NYG | 1 | -136 | 9% | — | RB144 |
| TJonathon Brooks | CAR | — | — | — | 127.7 | — | |
| Jeremiyah Love | ARI | — | — | — | 22.5 | — | |
| Jadarian Price | SEA | — | — | — | 75.2 | — |
Daten-Baseline aus den Prognosemodellen · aktualisiert 16. Juli 2026.
Per-Game-Prognosen aus Vorjahresform, Usage und Gegnerstärke — eine Daten-Baseline, kein Wett-Edge. Rookies ohne NFL-Produktion werden nach Markt-ADP platziert, nicht modell-projiziert. Zu Unterhaltungs-/Draft-Recherchezwecken — 18+.
Meistens ja — aber aus einem anderen Grund als in Standard. PPR entwertet reines Rushing-Volumen, doch die Backs an der Spitze dieses Boards fangen auch Pässe: Ihre projizierten Punkte sinken kaum, während ihre Knappheit extrem bleibt. VOR, nicht Rohpunkte, macht einen Elite-RB zum Erstrunden-Pick — die Lücke zum Ersatz-Back ist die größte Positions-Lücke im Fantasy. Ab den mittleren Runden flacht die Position schnell ab, und WRs bieten dort typischerweise mehr Value pro Pick.
Ein Handcuff ist der direkte Backup eines Workhorse-Backs — der Spieler, der die Bell-Cow-Rolle erbt, wenn der Starter ausfällt. Weil RB-Value so stark am Volumen hängt, ist ein guter Handcuff nur eine Verletzung von RB2-Produktion (oder besser) entfernt. Spät im Draft gehören Handcuffs fragiler oder alternder Workhorses (besonders deiner eigenen) zu den Picks mit dem meisten Upside; unsere Tiers zeigen, in welchen Backfields der nächste Mann klar feststeht.
Das ist die Anytime-Touchdown-Wahrscheinlichkeit des Modells für ein typisches Spiel. Touchdowns sind der volatilste Teil des RB-Scorings — zwei Backs mit ähnlichen Yardage-Projections können sich allein über die Goal-Line-Rolle um mehrere Punkte pro Spiel unterscheiden. Eine hohe TD% markiert Backs, denen ihr Team die wertvolle Short-Yardage- und Red-Zone-Arbeit gibt — und die ist von Jahr zu Jahr klebriger, als sie aussieht.