Running Back ist die knappste Position im Fantasy: Echte Three-Down-Workhorses gibt es kaum noch, Committees fressen Touches, und der Abstand von der Elite zur Replacement-Ebene ist der steilste im ganzen Board. Genau diese Knappheit misst Value over Replacement (VOR) — und deshalb dominieren RBs weiter die ersten Runden, auch in PPR, wo fangende Backs zusätzlich einen Reception-Floor auf ihr Rushing-Volumen stapeln. Triffst du deine frühen RB-Picks, spielt sich der Rest deines Drafts von vorne; verfehlst du sie, jagst du die ganze Saison der Waiver-Wire hinterher.
Spieler, die unser Board deutlich höher rankt, als der Markt sie draftet — die Lücke zwischen VOR-Rang und öffentlicher ADP ist der Draft-Value.
Tier-Brüche (T2, T3, …) markieren echte Abstufungen im projizierten Value — Spieler innerhalb eines Tiers liegen eng beieinander; zwischen Tiers ist die Lücke groß genug, um deinen Pick zu ändern.
| # | Spieler | Team | Prog. Pkt | VOR | TD% | ADP | ’25-Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T1Bijan Robinson | ATL | 328 | 177 | 41% | 2.3 | RB3 |
| 2 | Christian McCaffrey | SF | 323 | 172 | 37% | 6.7 | RB1 |
| 3 | Saquon Barkley | PHI | 282 | 131 | 38% | 17.2 | RB15 |
| 4 | De'Von Achane | MIA | 274 | 123 | 46% | 11.7 | RB6 |
| 5 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 270 | 119 | 35% | 1.5 | RB4 |
| 6 | Derrick Henry | BAL | 258 | 107 | 34% | 9.8 | RB7 |
| 7 | T2Chase Brown | CIN | 250 | 99 | 31% | 14.8 | RB9 |
| 8 | Kyren Williams | LA | 238 | 86 | 41% | 27.7 | RB8 |
| 9 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | 235 | 84 | 38% | 5.8 | RB2 |
| 10 | Ashton Jeanty | LV | 234 | 83 | 31% | 23.8 | RB13 |
| 11 | James Cook | BUF | 219 | 68 | 31% | 9.3 | RB5 |
| 12 | Kenneth Walker III | KC | 207 | 56 | 33% | 20.2 | RB22 |
| 13 | T3Josh Jacobs | GB | 206 | 55 | 32% | 26.3 | RB12 |
| 14 | Tony Pollard | TEN | 200 | 49 | 20% | 67.3 | RB23 |
| 15 | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 196 | 45 | 23% | 62.8 | RB25 |
| 16 | Breece Hall | NYJ | 195 | 44 | 29% | 33.0 | RB18 |
| 17 | Travis Etienne | NO | 190 | 39 | 29% | 37.0 | RB10 |
| 18 | D'Andre Swift | CHI | 187 | 36 | 36% | 43.1 | RB14 |
| 19 | T4Bucky Irving | TB | 181 | 30 | 34% | 47.5 | RB33 |
| 20 | RJ Harvey | DEN | 176 | 25 | 38% | 103.8 | RB21 |
| 21 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG | 174 | 23 | 20% | 159.4 | RB28 |
| 22 | Woody Marks | HOU | 172 | 21 | 20% | 141.6 | RB32 |
| 23 | Aaron Jones | MIN | 171 | 19 | 30% | 111.3 | RB43 |
| 24 | Javonte Williams | DAL | 160 | 9 | 26% | 33.7 | RB11 |
| 25 | T5Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 158 | 7 | 21% | 86.3 | RB40 |
| 26 | Rico Dowdle | PIT | 157 | 6 | 23% | 75.1 | RB16 |
| 27 | Alvin Kamara | NO | 154 | 3 | 29% | 158.4 | RB48 |
| 28 | David Montgomery | HOU | 152 | 1 | 37% | 56.3 | RB26 |
| 29 | Jaylen Warren | PIT | 152 | 1 | 17% | 63.0 | RB17 |
| 30 | Zach Charbonnet | SEA | 151 | 0 | 28% | 133.3 | RB24 |
| 31 | T6Quinshon Judkins | CLE | 150 | -1 | 20% | 51.4 | RB27 |
| 32 | Kareem Hunt | KC | 133 | -18 | 27% | — | RB30 |
| 33 | James Conner | ARI | 131 | -20 | 43% | — | RB78 |
| 34 | J.K. Dobbins | DEN | 130 | -22 | 25% | 78.0 | RB41 |
| 35 | Rachaad White | WAS | 127 | -25 | 19% | 119.0 | RB35 |
| 36 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | 124 | -27 | 27% | 101.2 | RB29 |
| 37 | T7Cam Skattebo | NYG | 123 | -28 | 42% | 38.9 | RB39 |
| 38 | TreVeyon Henderson | NE | 120 | -31 | 11% | 63.3 | RB19 |
| 39 | Kenneth Gainwell | TB | 120 | -31 | 27% | — | RB20 |
| 40 | Devin Singletary | NYG | 115 | -37 | 21% | — | RB44 |
| 41 | Omarion Hampton | LAC | 112 | -39 | 44% | 23.4 | RB36 |
| 42 | Dylan Sampson | CLE | 100 | -51 | 16% | 172.0 | RB57 |
| 43 | T8Jordan Mason | MIN | 99 | -52 | 14% | 114.0 | RB34 |
| 44 | Michael Carter | TEN | 99 | -52 | 16% | — | RB53 |
| 45 | Tyler Allgeier | ARI | 98 | -53 | 17% | 154.5 | RB38 |
| 46 | Najee Harris | LAC | 97 | -54 | 30% | — | RB101 |
| 47 | Kyle Monangai | CHI | 94 | -57 | 17% | 101.9 | RB31 |
| 48 | Tyjae Spears | TEN | 94 | -57 | 21% | 140.8 | RB46 |
| 49 | T9Brian Robinson | ATL | 90 | -62 | 14% | 163.7 | RB60 |
| 50 | Ty Johnson | BUF | 89 | -62 | 17% | — | RB47 |
| 51 | Isiah Pacheco | DET | 88 | -63 | 20% | 154.6 | RB55 |
| 52 | Bam Knight | ARI | 86 | -65 | 26% | — | RB52 |
| 53 | Kimani Vidal | LAC | 83 | -68 | 15% | — | RB42 |
| 54 | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX | 82 | -69 | 21% | 153.5 | RB45 |
| 55 | T10Tank Bigsby | PHI | 81 | -70 | 13% | 150.3 | RB64 |
| 56 | Justice Hill | BAL | 81 | -71 | 16% | — | RB61 |
| 57 | Nick Chubb | HOU | 78 | -73 | 26% | — | RB54 |
| 58 | Ray Davis | BUF | 77 | -74 | 13% | — | RB63 |
| 59 | Emanuel Wilson | SEA | 75 | -77 | 10% | — | RB51 |
| 60 | Austin Ekeler | WAS | 74 | -77 | 27% | — | RB100 |
| 61 | T11Samaje Perine | CIN | 74 | -77 | 14% | — | RB56 |
| 62 | Sean Tucker | TB | 73 | -78 | 24% | — | RB49 |
| 63 | Isaiah Davis | NYJ | 72 | -79 | 11% | — | RB59 |
| 64 | Jerome Ford | WAS | 67 | -84 | 14% | — | RB74 |
| 65 | Jeremy McNichols | WAS | 66 | -85 | 14% | — | RB58 |
| 66 | Blake Corum | LA | 65 | -87 | 9% | 121.0 | RB37 |
| 67 | T12Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | 62 | -89 | 31% | 52.9 | RB50 |
| 68 | Keaton Mitchell | LAC | 61 | -90 | 12% | 167.1 | RB66 |
| 69 | Devin Neal | NO | 60 | -91 | 16% | — | RB65 |
| 70 | Ameer Abdullah | JAX | 56 | -95 | 12% | — | RB76 |
| 71 | Antonio Gibson | NE | 54 | -97 | 19% | — | RB92 |
| 72 | Emari Demercado | KC | 53 | -98 | 11% | — | RB62 |
| 73 | T13Cam Akers | SEA | 52 | -99 | 13% | — | RB112 |
| 74 | Jaleel McLaughlin | DEN | 52 | -99 | 9% | — | RB77 |
| 75 | Brashard Smith | KC | 50 | -101 | 9% | — | RB67 |
| 76 | Chris Brooks | GB | 47 | -104 | 8% | — | RB81 |
| 77 | Audric Estimé | NO | 47 | -105 | 16% | — | RB70 |
| 78 | Raheem Mostert | LV | 46 | -105 | 18% | — | RB85 |
| 79 | T14Hunter Luepke | DAL | 46 | -105 | 8% | — | RB75 |
| 80 | Miles Sanders | DAL | 46 | -106 | 18% | — | RB83 |
| 81 | Braelon Allen | NYJ | 43 | -108 | 12% | 160.7 | RB93 |
| 82 | Ollie Gordon II | MIA | 43 | -109 | 15% | — | RB68 |
| 83 | Jaylen Wright | MIA | 42 | -109 | 13% | — | RB69 |
| 84 | Zavier Scott | MIN | 41 | -110 | 9% | — | RB72 |
| 85 | T15Trey Benson | ARI | 39 | -112 | 13% | — | RB79 |
| 86 | Isaac Guerendo | SF | 38 | -113 | 10% | — | RB142 |
| 87 | Dare Ogunbowale | HOU | 37 | -114 | 10% | — | RB86 |
| 88 | Malik Davis | DAL | 36 | -115 | 13% | — | RB71 |
| 89 | Jawhar Jordan | HOU | 36 | -115 | 10% | — | RB80 |
| 90 | Kendre Miller | NO | 34 | -118 | 10% | — | RB73 |
| 91 | T16Tyler Badie | DEN | 33 | -118 | 8% | — | RB82 |
| 92 | Roschon Johnson | CHI | 31 | -120 | 12% | — | RB128 |
| 93 | Rasheen Ali | BAL | 29 | -122 | 12% | — | RB90 |
| 94 | Andrew Beck | NYJ | 29 | -122 | 9% | — | RB87 |
| 95 | LeQuint Allen Jr. | JAX | 28 | -124 | 7% | — | RB89 |
| 96 | Will Shipley | PHI | 27 | -124 | 7% | — | RB95 |
| 97 | T17Dameon Pierce | PHI | 26 | -125 | 11% | — | RB122 |
| 98 | Trey Sermon | PIT | 23 | -128 | 9% | — | RB147 |
| 99 | Tyler Goodson | ATL | 22 | -129 | 8% | — | RB119 |
| 100 | Zamir White | LV | 22 | -129 | 8% | — | RB110 |
| 101 | Khalil Herbert | NYJ | 21 | -130 | 12% | — | RB113 |
| 102 | Jaret Patterson | LAC | 19 | -132 | 10% | — | RB84 |
| 103 | T18Raheim Sanders | CLE | 19 | -132 | 20% | — | RB91 |
| 104 | Trayveon Williams | CLE | 19 | -132 | 8% | — | RB97 |
| 105 | Tahj Brooks | CIN | 19 | -132 | 9% | — | RB116 |
| 106 | Dylan Laube | LV | 18 | -133 | 8% | — | RB120 |
| 107 | Ty Chandler | NO | 18 | -133 | 10% | — | RB111 |
| 108 | Hassan Haskins | LAC | 18 | -134 | 12% | — | RB108 |
| 109 | T19Kaleb Johnson | PIT | 18 | -134 | 9% | — | RB106 |
| 110 | George Holani | SEA | 17 | -134 | 7% | — | RB94 |
| 111 | AJ Dillon | CAR | 17 | -134 | 11% | — | RB104 |
| 112 | Terrell Jennings | NE | 17 | -135 | 12% | — | RB96 |
| 113 | Julius Chestnut | TEN | 16 | -135 | 8% | — | RB121 |
| 114 | Jaydon Blue | DAL | 16 | -135 | 9% | 158.2 | RB88 |
| 115 | T20Adam Prentice | DEN | 16 | -136 | 6% | — | RB98 |
| 116 | D'Ernest Johnson | NE | 15 | -136 | 7% | — | RB125 |
| 117 | DJ Giddens | IND | 14 | -137 | 7% | — | RB105 |
| 118 | Evan Hull | HOU | 14 | -138 | 8% | — | RB115 |
| 119 | Craig Reynolds | DET | 13 | -138 | 7% | — | RB136 |
| 120 | Corey Kiner | ARI | 12 | -140 | 8% | — | RB107 |
| 121 | T21Kene Nwangwu | NYJ | 11 | -140 | 8% | — | RB117 |
| 122 | Jordan Mims | SF | 10 | -141 | 15% | — | RB139 |
| 123 | Jacob Saylors | DET | 10 | -141 | 8% | — | RB130 |
| 124 | British Brooks | HOU | 10 | -141 | 7% | — | RB109 |
| 125 | Ronnie Rivers | LA | 10 | -141 | 7% | — | RB118 |
| 126 | DeeJay Dallas | JAX | 9 | -142 | 12% | — | RB126 |
| 127 | T22Travis Homer | PIT | 9 | -143 | 8% | — | RB150 |
| 128 | Sione Vaki | DET | 8 | -143 | 8% | — | RB135 |
| 129 | Eric Gray | NYG | 8 | -143 | 9% | — | RB144 |
| 130 | Trevor Etienne | CAR | 7 | -144 | 8% | — | RB99 |
| 131 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | 7 | -144 | 16% | — | RB124 |
| 132 | Chase Edmonds | WAS | 7 | -145 | 9% | — | RB141 |
| 133 | T23Elijah Mitchell | PHI | 5 | -146 | 28% | — | RB145 |
| 134 | Velus Jones Jr. | SEA | 4 | -147 | 8% | — | RB123 |
| 135 | Kalel Mullings | TEN | 4 | -147 | 8% | — | RB132 |
| 136 | Nyheim Hines | NO | 4 | -147 | 9% | — | RB151 |
| 137 | Gary Brightwell | CIN | 3 | -148 | 9% | — | RB148 |
| 138 | Myles Gaskin | SEA | 2 | -149 | 19% | — | RB133 |
| 139 | T24Robbie Ouzts | SEA | 2 | -150 | 7% | — | RB140 |
| 140 | Avery Williams | NYJ | 2 | -150 | 10% | — | RB143 |
| TJonah Coleman | DEN | — | — | — | 166.6 | — | |
| Jeremiyah Love | ARI | — | — | — | 29.9 | — | |
| Jadarian Price | SEA | — | — | — | 72.8 | — | |
| Jonathon Brooks | CAR | — | — | — | 90.2 | — | |
| Emmett Johnson | KC | — | — | — | 153.2 | — | |
| Mike Washington Jr. | LV | — | — | — | 154.2 | — | |
| MarShawn Lloyd | GB | — | — | — | 157.0 | — | |
| Kaelon Black | SF | — | — | — | 165.2 | — |
Daten-Baseline aus den Prognosemodellen · aktualisiert 30. Aug. 2026.
Per-Game-Prognosen aus Vorjahresform, Usage und Gegnerstärke — eine Daten-Baseline, kein Wett-Edge. Rookies ohne NFL-Produktion werden nach Markt-ADP platziert, nicht modell-projiziert. Zu Unterhaltungs-/Draft-Recherchezwecken — 18+.
Meistens ja — aber aus einem anderen Grund als in Standard. PPR entwertet reines Rushing-Volumen, doch die Backs an der Spitze dieses Boards fangen auch Pässe: Ihre projizierten Punkte sinken kaum, während ihre Knappheit extrem bleibt. VOR, nicht Rohpunkte, macht einen Elite-RB zum Erstrunden-Pick — die Lücke zum Ersatz-Back ist die größte Positions-Lücke im Fantasy. Ab den mittleren Runden flacht die Position schnell ab, und WRs bieten dort typischerweise mehr Value pro Pick.
Ein Handcuff ist der direkte Backup eines Workhorse-Backs — der Spieler, der die Bell-Cow-Rolle erbt, wenn der Starter ausfällt. Weil RB-Value so stark am Volumen hängt, ist ein guter Handcuff nur eine Verletzung von RB2-Produktion (oder besser) entfernt. Spät im Draft gehören Handcuffs fragiler oder alternder Workhorses (besonders deiner eigenen) zu den Picks mit dem meisten Upside; unsere Tiers zeigen, in welchen Backfields der nächste Mann klar feststeht.
Das ist die Anytime-Touchdown-Wahrscheinlichkeit des Modells für ein typisches Spiel. Touchdowns sind der volatilste Teil des RB-Scorings — zwei Backs mit ähnlichen Yardage-Projections können sich allein über die Goal-Line-Rolle um mehrere Punkte pro Spiel unterscheiden. Eine hohe TD% markiert Backs, denen ihr Team die wertvolle Short-Yardage- und Red-Zone-Arbeit gibt — und die ist von Jahr zu Jahr klebriger, als sie aussieht.