Running Back ist die knappste Position im Fantasy: Echte Three-Down-Workhorses gibt es kaum noch, Committees fressen Touches, und der Abstand von der Elite zur Replacement-Ebene ist der steilste im ganzen Board. Genau diese Knappheit misst Value over Replacement (VOR) — und deshalb dominieren RBs weiter die ersten Runden, auch in PPR, wo fangende Backs zusätzlich einen Reception-Floor auf ihr Rushing-Volumen stapeln. Triffst du deine frühen RB-Picks, spielt sich der Rest deines Drafts von vorne; verfehlst du sie, jagst du die ganze Saison der Waiver-Wire hinterher.
Spieler, die unser Board deutlich höher rankt, als der Markt sie draftet — die Lücke zwischen VOR-Rang und öffentlicher ADP ist der Draft-Value.
Tier-Brüche (T2, T3, …) markieren echte Abstufungen im projizierten Value — Spieler innerhalb eines Tiers liegen eng beieinander; zwischen Tiers ist die Lücke groß genug, um deinen Pick zu ändern.
| # | Spieler | Team | Prog. Pkt | VOR | TD% | ADP | ’25-Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T1Bijan Robinson | ATL | 291 | 161 | 41% | — | RB3 |
| 2 | Christian McCaffrey | SF | 274 | 144 | 37% | 5.5 | RB2 |
| 3 | Saquon Barkley | PHI | 262 | 131 | 38% | 12.9 | RB14 |
| 4 | Derrick Henry | BAL | 251 | 120 | 34% | 7.0 | RB6 |
| 5 | De'Von Achane | MIA | 238 | 108 | 46% | 11.1 | RB7 |
| 6 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 236 | 105 | 35% | 1.5 | RB4 |
| 7 | T2Kyren Williams | LA | 219 | 88 | 41% | 24.7 | RB8 |
| 8 | Chase Brown | CIN | 217 | 87 | 31% | 16.4 | RB11 |
| 9 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | 215 | 85 | 38% | 2.5 | RB1 |
| 10 | Ashton Jeanty | LV | 207 | 76 | 31% | 24.6 | RB15 |
| 11 | James Cook | BUF | 203 | 72 | 31% | 7.7 | RB5 |
| 12 | Josh Jacobs | GB | 187 | 56 | 32% | 107.9 | RB12 |
| 13 | T3Kenneth Walker III | KC | 186 | 55 | 33% | 16.4 | RB21 |
| 14 | Tony Pollard | TEN | 181 | 51 | 20% | 67.2 | RB23 |
| 15 | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 176 | 45 | 23% | 61.4 | RB25 |
| 16 | Breece Hall | NYJ | 174 | 43 | 29% | 28.6 | RB18 |
| 17 | Travis Etienne | NO | 170 | 40 | 29% | 31.6 | RB9 |
| 18 | D'Andre Swift | CHI | 169 | 39 | 36% | 39.7 | RB13 |
| 19 | T4Bucky Irving | TB | 162 | 32 | 34% | 49.0 | RB35 |
| 20 | Woody Marks | HOU | 160 | 30 | 20% | 133.8 | RB32 |
| 21 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG | 156 | 25 | 20% | — | RB30 |
| 22 | Aaron Jones | MIN | 152 | 21 | 30% | 111.7 | RB43 |
| 23 | RJ Harvey | DEN | 151 | 20 | 38% | — | RB20 |
| 24 | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 140 | 9 | 21% | 85.3 | RB42 |
| 25 | T5Javonte Williams | DAL | 139 | 9 | 26% | 22.6 | RB10 |
| 26 | Rico Dowdle | PIT | 138 | 7 | 23% | — | RB16 |
| 27 | Zach Charbonnet | SEA | 137 | 7 | 28% | 129.8 | RB22 |
| 28 | Quinshon Judkins | CLE | 137 | 7 | 20% | 46.7 | RB27 |
| 29 | David Montgomery | HOU | 137 | 7 | 37% | 48.3 | RB26 |
| 30 | Jaylen Warren | PIT | 131 | 0 | 17% | — | RB17 |
| 31 | T6Alvin Kamara | NO | 130 | -0 | 29% | — | RB52 |
| 32 | Kareem Hunt | KC | 123 | -8 | 27% | — | RB29 |
| 33 | J.K. Dobbins | DEN | 120 | -10 | 25% | — | RB37 |
| 34 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | 120 | -11 | 27% | 86.8 | RB28 |
| 35 | James Conner | ARI | 117 | -13 | 43% | — | RB75 |
| 36 | Cam Skattebo | NYG | 111 | -19 | 42% | 35.8 | RB39 |
| 37 | T7Devin Singletary | NYG | 105 | -26 | 21% | — | RB45 |
| 38 | TreVeyon Henderson | NE | 104 | -26 | 11% | 62.6 | RB19 |
| 39 | Rachaad White | WAS | 104 | -27 | 19% | 120.6 | RB40 |
| 40 | Omarion Hampton | LAC | 96 | -35 | 44% | 20.4 | RB38 |
| 41 | Kenneth Gainwell | TB | 94 | -37 | 27% | 125.3 | RB24 |
| 42 | Jordan Mason | MIN | 92 | -38 | 14% | 89.4 | RB33 |
| 43 | T8Tyler Allgeier | ARI | 91 | -39 | 17% | — | RB36 |
| 44 | Najee Harris | NYG | 88 | -43 | 30% | — | RB103 |
| 45 | Kyle Monangai | CHI | 84 | -47 | 17% | — | RB31 |
| 46 | Dylan Sampson | CLE | 84 | -47 | 16% | — | RB57 |
| 47 | Brian Robinson | ATL | 83 | -47 | 14% | — | RB58 |
| 48 | Michael Carter | TEN | 82 | -49 | 16% | — | RB55 |
| 49 | T9Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX | 81 | -50 | 21% | — | RB44 |
| 50 | Tank Bigsby | PHI | 79 | -51 | 13% | — | RB59 |
| 51 | Ty Johnson | BUF | 78 | -52 | 17% | — | RB49 |
| 52 | Isiah Pacheco | DET | 78 | -52 | 20% | — | RB53 |
| 53 | Kimani Vidal | LAC | 76 | -55 | 15% | — | RB41 |
| 54 | Bam Knight | ARI | 75 | -55 | 26% | — | RB51 |
| 55 | T10Tyjae Spears | TEN | 74 | -57 | 21% | — | RB54 |
| 56 | Nick Chubb | HOU | 72 | -59 | 26% | — | RB50 |
| 57 | Ray Davis | BUF | 71 | -59 | 13% | — | RB61 |
| 58 | Sean Tucker | TB | 69 | -62 | 24% | — | RB46 |
| 59 | Emanuel Wilson | SEA | 68 | -63 | 10% | — | RB48 |
| 60 | Justice Hill | BAL | 64 | -66 | 16% | — | RB67 |
| 61 | T11Samaje Perine | CIN | 64 | -67 | 14% | — | RB56 |
| 62 | Isaiah Davis | NYJ | 62 | -69 | 11% | — | RB60 |
| 63 | Austin Ekeler | WAS | 61 | -69 | 27% | — | RB105 |
| 64 | Blake Corum | LA | 59 | -71 | 9% | 105.8 | RB34 |
| 65 | Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | 57 | -74 | 31% | 54.8 | RB47 |
| 66 | Jeremy McNichols | WAS | 56 | -74 | 14% | — | RB62 |
| 67 | T12Keaton Mitchell | LAC | 56 | -74 | 12% | — | RB65 |
| 68 | Jerome Ford | ARI | 52 | -79 | 14% | — | RB84 |
| 69 | Devin Neal | WAS | 51 | -79 | 16% | — | RB68 |
| 70 | Cam Akers | SEA | 49 | -81 | 13% | — | RB109 |
| 71 | Antonio Gibson | NE | 48 | -82 | 19% | — | RB87 |
| 72 | Emari Demercado | DAL | 46 | -85 | 11% | — | RB63 |
| 73 | T13Jaleel McLaughlin | CLE | 46 | -85 | 9% | — | RB73 |
| 74 | Ameer Abdullah | JAX | 44 | -86 | 12% | — | RB80 |
| 75 | Audric Estimé | CLE | 41 | -90 | 16% | — | RB71 |
| 76 | Chris Brooks | GB | 40 | -91 | 8% | — | RB82 |
| 77 | Jaylen Wright | MIA | 40 | -91 | 13% | — | RB66 |
| 78 | Hunter Luepke | DAL | 40 | -91 | 8% | — | RB76 |
| 79 | T14Ollie Gordon II | MIA | 39 | -92 | 15% | — | RB64 |
| 80 | Raheem Mostert | LV | 39 | -92 | 18% | — | RB85 |
| 81 | Braelon Allen | NYJ | 38 | -92 | 12% | — | RB91 |
| 82 | Miles Sanders | DAL | 38 | -93 | 18% | — | RB81 |
| 83 | Brashard Smith | KC | 37 | -93 | 9% | — | RB70 |
| 84 | Isaac Guerendo | SF | 35 | -95 | 10% | — | RB142 |
| 85 | T15Malik Davis | DAL | 35 | -95 | 13% | — | RB69 |
| 86 | Zavier Scott | CHI | 34 | -97 | 9% | — | RB74 |
| 87 | Trey Benson | ARI | 33 | -98 | 13% | — | RB79 |
| 88 | Jawhar Jordan | HOU | 32 | -98 | 10% | — | RB77 |
| 89 | Kendre Miller | NO | 31 | -100 | 10% | — | RB72 |
| 90 | Dare Ogunbowale | HOU | 30 | -100 | 10% | — | RB90 |
| 91 | T16Roschon Johnson | CHI | 28 | -103 | 12% | — | RB128 |
| 92 | Andrew Beck | NYJ | 26 | -105 | 9% | — | RB88 |
| 93 | Dameon Pierce | PHI | 25 | -105 | 11% | — | RB120 |
| 94 | Rasheen Ali | BAL | 25 | -106 | 12% | — | RB92 |
| 95 | Tyler Badie | DEN | 24 | -107 | 8% | — | RB89 |
| 96 | LeQuint Allen Jr. | JAX | 22 | -109 | 7% | — | RB93 |
| 97 | T17Will Shipley | PHI | 22 | -109 | 7% | — | RB97 |
| 98 | Tyler Goodson | DAL | 20 | -111 | 8% | — | RB121 |
| 99 | Trey Sermon | ATL | 20 | -111 | 9% | — | RB147 |
| 100 | Zamir White | NO | 19 | -111 | 8% | — | RB114 |
| 101 | Khalil Herbert | ATL | 19 | -112 | 12% | — | RB113 |
| 102 | Tahj Brooks | CIN | 18 | -112 | 9% | — | RB116 |
| 103 | T18Jaret Patterson | CLE | 18 | -113 | 10% | — | RB78 |
| 104 | Raheim Sanders | CLE | 17 | -113 | 20% | — | RB86 |
| 105 | Kaleb Johnson | GB | 17 | -114 | 9% | — | RB106 |
| 106 | Dylan Laube | LV | 17 | -114 | 8% | — | RB123 |
| 107 | Terrell Jennings | NE | 16 | -114 | 12% | — | RB95 |
| 108 | Julius Chestnut | TEN | 16 | -115 | 8% | — | RB119 |
| 109 | T19Hassan Haskins | NE | 16 | -115 | 12% | — | RB110 |
| 110 | AJ Dillon | CAR | 15 | -115 | 11% | — | RB104 |
| 111 | Ty Chandler | NO | 15 | -115 | 10% | — | RB112 |
| 112 | Jaydon Blue | PHI | 15 | -115 | 9% | — | RB83 |
| 113 | Trayveon Williams | CLE | 15 | -116 | 8% | — | RB101 |
| 114 | George Holani | SEA | 14 | -116 | 7% | — | RB94 |
| 115 | T20DJ Giddens | IND | 14 | -117 | 7% | — | RB100 |
| 116 | D'Ernest Johnson | NE | 13 | -118 | 7% | — | RB124 |
| 117 | Evan Hull | ARI | 13 | -118 | 8% | — | RB115 |
| 118 | Adam Prentice | DEN | 13 | -118 | 6% | — | RB99 |
| 119 | Craig Reynolds | WAS | 12 | -118 | 7% | — | RB136 |
| 120 | Kene Nwangwu | NYJ | 11 | -119 | 8% | — | RB117 |
| 121 | T21Corey Kiner | NE | 11 | -120 | 8% | — | RB108 |
| 122 | Jacob Saylors | DET | 10 | -120 | 8% | — | RB130 |
| 123 | British Brooks | HOU | 10 | -121 | 7% | — | RB107 |
| 124 | Ronnie Rivers | LA | 9 | -122 | 7% | — | RB118 |
| 125 | DeeJay Dallas | MIN | 9 | -122 | 12% | — | RB126 |
| 126 | Travis Homer | PIT | 8 | -123 | 8% | — | RB150 |
| 127 | T22Jordan Mims | PHI | 8 | -123 | 15% | — | RB139 |
| 128 | Sione Vaki | DET | 8 | -123 | 8% | — | RB135 |
| 129 | Chase Edmonds | WAS | 7 | -124 | 9% | — | RB141 |
| 130 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | 6 | -125 | 16% | — | RB125 |
| 131 | Trevor Etienne | CAR | 6 | -125 | 8% | — | RB96 |
| 132 | Eric Gray | CLE | 6 | -125 | 9% | — | RB144 |
| 133 | T23Elijah Mitchell | KC | 5 | -126 | 28% | — | RB145 |
| 134 | Kalel Mullings | TEN | 4 | -127 | 8% | — | RB132 |
| 135 | Nyheim Hines | NO | 4 | -127 | 9% | — | RB151 |
| 136 | Velus Jones Jr. | SEA | 4 | -127 | 8% | — | RB122 |
| 137 | Gary Brightwell | CIN | 3 | -128 | 9% | — | RB148 |
| 138 | Myles Gaskin | SEA | 2 | -129 | 19% | — | RB133 |
| 139 | T24Robbie Ouzts | SEA | 2 | -129 | 7% | — | RB140 |
| 140 | Avery Williams | NYJ | 2 | -129 | 10% | — | RB143 |
| TJeremiyah Love | ARI | — | — | — | 33.3 | — | |
| MarShawn Lloyd | GB | — | — | — | 110.8 | — | |
| Mike Washington Jr. | LV | — | — | — | 143.7 | — | |
| Jadarian Price | SEA | — | — | — | 58.7 | — |
Daten-Baseline aus den Prognosemodellen · aktualisiert 16. Okt. 2026.
Per-Game-Prognosen aus Vorjahresform, Usage und Gegnerstärke — eine Daten-Baseline, kein Wett-Edge. Rookies ohne NFL-Produktion werden nach Markt-ADP platziert, nicht modell-projiziert. Zu Unterhaltungs-/Draft-Recherchezwecken — 18+.
Meistens ja — aber aus einem anderen Grund als in Standard. PPR entwertet reines Rushing-Volumen, doch die Backs an der Spitze dieses Boards fangen auch Pässe: Ihre projizierten Punkte sinken kaum, während ihre Knappheit extrem bleibt. VOR, nicht Rohpunkte, macht einen Elite-RB zum Erstrunden-Pick — die Lücke zum Ersatz-Back ist die größte Positions-Lücke im Fantasy. Ab den mittleren Runden flacht die Position schnell ab, und WRs bieten dort typischerweise mehr Value pro Pick.
Ein Handcuff ist der direkte Backup eines Workhorse-Backs — der Spieler, der die Bell-Cow-Rolle erbt, wenn der Starter ausfällt. Weil RB-Value so stark am Volumen hängt, ist ein guter Handcuff nur eine Verletzung von RB2-Produktion (oder besser) entfernt. Spät im Draft gehören Handcuffs fragiler oder alternder Workhorses (besonders deiner eigenen) zu den Picks mit dem meisten Upside; unsere Tiers zeigen, in welchen Backfields der nächste Mann klar feststeht.
Das ist die Anytime-Touchdown-Wahrscheinlichkeit des Modells für ein typisches Spiel. Touchdowns sind der volatilste Teil des RB-Scorings — zwei Backs mit ähnlichen Yardage-Projections können sich allein über die Goal-Line-Rolle um mehrere Punkte pro Spiel unterscheiden. Eine hohe TD% markiert Backs, denen ihr Team die wertvolle Short-Yardage- und Red-Zone-Arbeit gibt — und die ist von Jahr zu Jahr klebriger, als sie aussieht.