Which team wins the most games in 2026? Our Elo simulation runs the full FBS schedule 2,000 times (12-team CFP format: Power-4 champs + the best G5 champ + at-large bids) — the same numbers behind our college football hub, for every simulated FBS team.
| # | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 10.3 | 92% |
| 2 | Indiana | Big Ten | 9.5 | 81% |
| 3 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 9.2 | 75% |
| 4 | Miami | ACC | 9.1 | 74% |
| 5 | Oregon | Big Ten | 9.0 | 69% |
| 6 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 9.0 | 66% |
| 7 | Penn State | Big Ten | 9.0 | 54% |
| 8 | Georgia | SEC | 8.8 | 61% |
| 9 | James Madison | Sun Belt | 8.8 | 55% |
| 10 | Texas | SEC | 8.4 | 46% |
| 11 | Tulane | American Athletic | 8.4 | 31% |
| 12 | Ole Miss | SEC | 8.3 | 44% |
| 13 | Utah | Big 12 | 8.3 | 44% |
| 14 | UNLV | Mountain West | 8.3 | 26% |
| 15 | SMU | ACC | 8.2 | 36% |
| 16 | Ohio | Mid-American | 8.1 | 21% |
| 17 | Old Dominion | Sun Belt | 8.0 | 23% |
| 18 | Hawai'i | Mountain West | 7.9 | 16% |
| 19 | BYU | Big 12 | 7.8 | 26% |
| 20 | Navy | American Athletic | 7.8 | 17% |
| 21 | Alabama | SEC | 7.7 | 23% |
| 22 | Toledo | Mid-American | 7.7 | 11% |
| 23 | Iowa | Big Ten | 7.6 | 20% |
| 24 | Western Michigan | Mid-American | 7.5 | 8% |
| 25 | USC | Big Ten | 7.4 | 14% |
We simulate the full 2026 FBS schedule 2,000 times using Monte Carlo methods, on Elo power ratings computed 538-style over 9,000+ games since 2014. The CFP field approximates the 12-team format (Power-4 conference champions + the best Group-of-5 champion get automatic bids, the rest are at-large by simulated record and Elo). The number in the table is each team's average simulated win total.
No. We don't collect sportsbook win-total odds for college football, so there's no market price here — this is purely our Elo simulation's projected win total from 2,000 season simulations.
Every FBS team gets an Elo power rating from 9,000+ games since 2014. We simulate the full 2026 schedule 2,000 times with those ratings, and the projected win total is the average number of wins across all simulations.
Sort the table below by conference to compare each conference's top projected win total, or check the conference-favorites section of our seasonal recap post on the blog.
This is a model projection, not a sportsbook win-total line — we don't collect or display bookmaker win-total prices. Rosters shift until kickoff, so treat this as a data-driven baseline, not a final word. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 18+.
← Back to college football hubThe simulation reruns as new results come in during the season, so every team's projected win total and CFP chance stays current.