Jeff Nelson has 56 home-plate games in our MLB database. His games average 9.89 combined runs against a league average of 8.90 — the tables below break that down by season and show his most recent games. Umpire tendencies are one small input to our MLB totals model, never a betting rule on their own.
No upcoming plate assignment on record — MLB publishes umpire crews on game day, so check back in the afternoon (US time).
| Season | Games | Avg total runs | Over 8.5 % | Home win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 30 | 10.33 | 66.7% | 56.7% |
| 2022 | 26 | 9.38 | 50.0% | 46.2% |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2023 | Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels | 1–5 | 6 |
| Sep 26, 2023 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | 1–4 | 5 |
| Sep 20, 2023 | Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers | 5–15 | 20 |
| Sep 09, 2023 | Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays | 1–5 | 6 |
| Sep 04, 2023 | Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 2–4 | 6 |
| Aug 30, 2023 | Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | 4–5 | 9 |
| Aug 27, 2023 | Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 8–7 | 15 |
| Aug 23, 2023 | Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | 3–7 | 10 |
| Aug 18, 2023 | Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | 4–2 | 6 |
| Aug 06, 2023 | Kansas City Royals @ Philadelphia Phillies | 4–8 | 12 |
Method: every number on this page is computed from the finished MLB games in our own model database (2022 onwards) where Jeff Nelson was the recorded home-plate umpire. "Over 8.5 %" is the share of his games with 9+ combined runs; "Home win %" is how often the home team won with him behind the plate. Only umpires with at least 30 plate games get a page — smaller samples are noise. One honest caveat applies to everything here: even several seasons of plate games is a modest sample, and most deviation from the league average is variance, not a hidden edge.