How many games will each NFL team win in 2026? Our season simulator runs the complete schedule 10,000 times with Monte Carlo methods, driven by Elo-style power ratings built from last season's results — the same numbers behind our NFL hub.
| # | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle Seahawks | NFC West | 11.0 | 84% |
| 2 | Los Angeles Rams | NFC West | 10.7 | 79% |
| 3 | New England Patriots | AFC East | 10.5 | 80% |
| 4 | Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC South | 10.3 | 75% |
| 5 | Houston Texans | AFC South | 10.0 | 69% |
| 6 | Buffalo Bills | AFC East | 9.8 | 68% |
| 7 | Detroit Lions | NFC North | 9.8 | 65% |
| 8 | Denver Broncos | AFC West | 9.6 | 64% |
| 9 | Indianapolis Colts | AFC South | 9.4 | 58% |
| 10 | Philadelphia Eagles | NFC East | 9.3 | 61% |
| 11 | San Francisco 49ers | NFC West | 9.3 | 53% |
| 12 | Baltimore Ravens | AFC North | 9.1 | 56% |
| 13 | Kansas City Chiefs | AFC West | 8.8 | 49% |
| 14 | Green Bay Packers | NFC North | 8.8 | 45% |
| 15 | Minnesota Vikings | NFC North | 8.7 | 42% |
| 16 | Pittsburgh Steelers | AFC North | 8.7 | 47% |
| 17 | Chicago Bears | NFC North | 8.6 | 41% |
| 18 | Los Angeles Chargers | AFC West | 8.5 | 43% |
| 19 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC South | 8.3 | 41% |
| 20 | Atlanta Falcons | NFC South | 8.2 | 38% |
| 21 | New Orleans Saints | NFC South | 8.1 | 36% |
| 22 | Dallas Cowboys | NFC East | 7.9 | 32% |
| 23 | New York Giants | NFC East | 7.7 | 27% |
| 24 | Cincinnati Bengals | AFC North | 7.7 | 29% |
| 25 | Carolina Panthers | NFC South | 7.6 | 27% |
| 26 | Cleveland Browns | AFC North | 7.6 | 26% |
| 27 | Washington Commanders | NFC East | 7.1 | 19% |
| 28 | Miami Dolphins | AFC East | 7.1 | 18% |
| 29 | Arizona Cardinals | NFC West | 6.5 | 9% |
| 30 | Tennessee Titans | AFC South | 5.8 | 6% |
| 31 | Las Vegas Raiders | AFC West | 5.7 | 6% |
| 32 | New York Jets | AFC East | 5.7 | 6% |
We simulate the full 2026 schedule 10,000 times using Monte Carlo methods. Each team's power rating (Elo-style, derived from prior-season scoring margins) sets a per-game win probability; averaging the projected win total across every simulation gives the number in the table above.
No. We don't collect sportsbook win-total odds, so there's no market price to compare against here — this is purely our model's projected win total from 10,000 season simulations.
Each team gets a power rating from its prior season's scoring margin (shrunk toward the league average). We simulate the entire schedule 10,000 times with those ratings, and the projected win total is the average number of wins across all simulations.
Preseason projections stand until Week 1 kicks off; once the season is underway, the simulation reruns with actual results plugged in, so every number here updates as games are played.
Check the division standings on our main NFL hub, or sort this table by division to compare in-division win totals side by side.
This is a model projection, not a sportsbook win-total line — we don't collect or display bookmaker win-total prices. Power ratings are not adjusted for off-season roster moves. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 18+.
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