Denver won the AFC West at 14-3 last year, posting an NFL-record 13 comeback victories and pairing that with the league's best sack differential. Most of the roster returns, including a defense that ranked top-three in points and yards allowed and an offensive line regarded as the NFL's best. Oddsmakers have Denver around a 9.5 win total with roughly 20-1 Super Bowl odds, though those numbers will move as camp progresses. The catch for bettors: Denver has started slowly in three straight seasons, finished with a negative turnover margin despite the great defense, and led the league in penalty yardage. Their first six opponents are unusually tough (at Kansas City, Jacksonville, the Rams, at San Francisco, at the Chargers, Seattle), so an early-season fade or under bet could pay off before the defense and Bo Nix (returning from an ankle injury) find their rhythm.
Courtland Sutton stays a steady possession target, and newly added Jaylen Waddle (acquired from Miami) gives the offense a legitimate deep threat, which should open things up underneath for everyone else. The backfield is crowded and worth tracking in camp: JK Dobbins has starter talent but an extensive injury history, while RJ Harvey and rookie Jonah Coleman could push for early-down and passing-down work respectively. Tight end production was nearly nonexistent last season, so that group isn't fantasy relevant until proven otherwise.
| Player | Pos | Rank | Proj pts | ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Harvey▲ | RB | 30 | 201.1 | 89.6 |
| Jaylen Waddle▼ | WR | 52 | 204.8 | 41.0 |
| Bo Nix▲ | QB | 54 | 283.1 | 117.4 |
| Courtland Sutton▲ | WR | 58 | 195.8 | 72.9 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | 130 | 134.6 | — |
Los Angeles went 11-6 and returned to the playoffs, but the offense is being rebuilt around new coordinator Mike McDaniel after a rash of injuries (both starting tackles, top backs, and Justin Herbert himself) wrecked last year's line and finish. The defense remains the backbone of this team, ranking top-five against the pass, aggressive on early downs, and led by the versatile Derwin James alongside pass rushers Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu. The concern is tackling, since the Chargers missed the highest percentage of tackles in the league last season. The schedule turns brutal from weeks three through ten, including road trips to Buffalo, Seattle, and Baltimore plus home dates against Denver and Kansas City, a stretch that runs through four MVP-caliber quarterbacks. Herbert remains one of the league's most talented passers, but an 0-3 career playoff record and a tendency to take heavy sacks when plays break down are worth factoring into futures and player-prop bets.
Keep an eye on the backfield split in camp: rookie Omarion Hampton profiles as the early-down and receiving-work leader, but free-agent addition Kayton Mitchell (a big, explosive change-of-pace back) could cut into passing-down touches given McDaniel's history of funneling targets to running backs. Wide receiver Quentin Johnston enters a contract year as the clear top vertical threat, often a good sign for a fantasy breakout. Rookie speedster Brennan Thompson is a name to stash if he earns early playing time.
| Player | Pos | Rank | Proj pts | ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert▲ | QB | 38 | 296.7 | 79.0 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 56 | 199.2 | — |
| Ladd McConkey▼ | WR | 86 | 170.9 | 36.2 |
| Omarion Hampton▼ | RB | 103 | 128.1 | 16.6 |
| Oronde Gadsden II▲ | TE | 120 | 129.8 | 160.4 |
Kansas City's 6-11 collapse (after a 15-2 season the year before) has the public souring on them, which could make the Chiefs a buy-low candidate if Patrick Mahomes is fully recovered from his knee injury. Andy Reid brought back Eric Bieniemy as offensive coordinator, and the offense clearly needs a spark: scoring, total yardage, and third-down efficiency have all declined every year since 2022, and Kansas City hasn't had a 1,000-yard rusher since 2017 or a 1,000-yard receiver since 2021. New back Kenneth Walker was brought in to fix a running game that produced only one play over 20 yards last season. The offensive tackle spots were a turnstile last year (47 sacks allowed), so that's a unit to track in the preseason. On defense, four straight draft picks were spent rebuilding the secondary and front seven, replacing several departed veterans. The schedule opens manageable (Denver, Colts, at Miami, at Las Vegas) before a difficult run beginning in late November against Buffalo, the Rams, at Cincinnati, the Patriots, the 49ers, and the Chargers.
Kenneth Walker steps in as the clear lead back and is KC's best fantasy running-back option in years given the drought at the position. Travis Kelce is being deployed more like a big slot receiver than a traditional tight end and is still productive, but a crowded receiver room, including Xavier Worthy and a Rashee Rice coming off a suspension, muddies target share. Backup quarterback Justin Fields could siphon a handful of goal-line or gadget touches. Don't roster Mahomes as a locked-in weekly QB1 until his health is confirmed in camp.
| Player | Pos | Rank | Proj pts | ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | 19 | 213.7 | 22.6 |
| Travis Kelce▲ | TE | 34 | 209.3 | 95.0 |
| Patrick Mahomes▲ | QB | 50 | 285.5 | 75.5 |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | 114 | 119.9 | — |
| Xavier Worthy▼ | WR | 125 | 138.5 | 97.7 |
Las Vegas hit reset after a 3-14 season: new head coach Clint Kubiak (formerly Seattle's offensive coordinator), new coordinators on both sides of the ball, and a bridge/develop plan at quarterback pairing veteran Kirk Cousins with rookie first-overall pick Fernando Mendoza. The Raiders finished dead last in nearly every major offensive category last season, including scoring, total yards, rushing, and sacks allowed, so the bar for improvement is low, which can make a team live for backdoor covers and against-the-spread value even while still losing outright. They also face one of the league's tougher schedules with zero primetime games, itself a signal of low national expectations. Defensively, the linebacker corps was overhauled with new additions at inside linebacker, but the pass rush behind Max Crosby is unproven, and Las Vegas has fielded only one top-18 defense since 2003.
Brock Bowers remains the offensive centerpiece and a locked-in top-tier tight end target even after an injury-shortened season. Ashton Jeanty gets a full offseason inside a run-first scheme that historically emphasizes zone runs and play-action, which should help his efficiency even if free-agent addition Mike Washington takes some early-down carries. Wide receiver is very much a prove-it group led by free-agent slot man Jayien Naylor and returning speedster Tre Tucker; neither profiles as a clear weekly fantasy starter yet. Rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza is a dynasty stash but isn't expected to start Week 1 with Cousins holding the job initially.
| Player | Pos | Rank | Proj pts | ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | 9 | 262.0 | 12.0 |
| Brock Bowers▼ | TE | 76 | 166.2 | 36.0 |
| Tre Tucker▲ | WR | 118 | 143.0 | 133.9 |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | 157 | 115.9 | — |
| Michael Mayer | TE | 191 | 84.8 | — |
We average each team's 2026 opponents' projected win totals from our season simulation, both across the full schedule and just the first six games, then rank all 32 teams from toughest to easiest.
No. The betting and fantasy commentary is our own written analysis and discusses market context (win totals, odds) — the actual value bets we recommend live separately and are part of our All-Access plan.
The season-simulation numbers, schedule difficulty and fantasy asset rankings refresh automatically as our models rerun — preseason projections firm up through camp and then update weekly once the season starts.
Season-simulation data (proj. wins, playoff/division/Super Bowl odds) comes from our 10,000-run Monte Carlo model; schedule difficulty ranks opponents' projected wins across all 32 teams. Editorial commentary above (win totals, market odds mentioned) reflects betting-market context, not a current pick. Fantasy projections are a data baseline, not a betting edge. 18+.