Our per-player projection model (passing/rushing/receiving yards, receptions, anytime-TD probability) for this week's slate — shown next to the market's no-vig line whenever one is available. This is information, not a pick: we display every projection here, and only ever place a bet ourselves once it clears our +EV gate elsewhere.
All Access unlocks every +EV bet our model finds — team markets and player props — with odds, stake sizing and full model reasoning.
No projections yet — check back once the season schedule and this week's rosters are live (from September).
Every number here comes from the same trained per-stat models behind our fantasy rankings and match previews (rolling player form, usage/target share, opponent defense-vs-position, and game script) — there is no separate 'props model'.
The 'Market line' and 'Market fair %' columns only populate once a bookmaker actually prices that exact player/stat and our value-bet engine has logged it against Pinnacle's de-vigged close — so most projections show model-only until props markets are liquid in-season. That's an honest gap, not a bug.
'Lean' just compares our projection to the market line (over/under/push) — it is not a bet, odds or stake recommendation. The specific picks our model actually plays are part of the paid All-Access plan.
Bets on an individual player's stat line in a game — e.g. over/under passing yards, or whether a player scores anytime — rather than the game's final score.
Trained XGBoost models per stat (passing/rushing/receiving yards, receptions, anytime-TD probability) using rolling player form, usage/target share, opponent defense-vs-position and game script (spread/total) — the same models that power our fantasy rankings.
Why trust the numbers? Our models run at Pinnacle-level accuracy with every result published — see the track record.
The market line only appears once a bookmaker has actually priced that player/stat and we've logged it. Coverage grows once the season is live and prop markets are liquid.
No — this page shows projections and, where available, the market's line and fair probability for information only. Our actual +EV picks (with odds and stake) are part of the paid All-Access plan.