Date: Sun, 04 October 2026 at 04:00
Carlos Alcaraz faces Denis Shapovalov at Japan Open on hard court in a best-of-3 format. Here is how our model reads the matchup.
Our model makes Carlos Alcaraz a heavy favourite at 90% to win. Carlos Alcaraz holds a commanding 396-point Elo edge (2050 to 1654).
Carlos Alcaraz is especially strong on hard court; Denis Shapovalov is especially strong on hard court; Carlos Alcaraz arrives in form, winning 8 of the last 10.
Carlos Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 2–0; Carlos Alcaraz won the most recent meeting in 2025.
On total games, the model projects about 27.3 and leans under the 19.5 line.
Expected ~27.3 games · leans Under 19.5