Date: Tue, 06 October 2026 at 09:00
Carlos Alcaraz faces Jiri Lehecka at Japan Open on hard court in a best-of-3 format. Here is how our model reads the matchup.
Our model makes Carlos Alcaraz a heavy favourite at 90% to win. Carlos Alcaraz holds a commanding 309-point Elo edge (2053 to 1744).
Carlos Alcaraz is especially strong on hard court; Jiri Lehecka is especially strong on hard court; Carlos Alcaraz arrives in form, winning 9 of the last 10; Jiri Lehecka arrives in form, winning 7 of the last 10.
Carlos Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 3–1; Carlos Alcaraz won the most recent meeting in 2025.
On total games, the model projects about 31.4 and leans under the 22 line.
Expected ~31.4 games · leans Under 22