Date: Sat, 03 October 2026 at 02:00
Carlos Alcaraz faces Matteo Arnaldi at Japan Open on hard court in a best-of-3 format. Here is how our model reads the matchup.
Our model makes Carlos Alcaraz a heavy favourite at 93% to win. Carlos Alcaraz holds a commanding 461-point Elo edge (2048 to 1587).
Carlos Alcaraz is especially strong on hard court; hard court is not Matteo Arnaldi's favoured surface; Carlos Alcaraz arrives in form, winning 8 of the last 10.
Carlos Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 2–0; Carlos Alcaraz won the most recent meeting in 2024.
On total games, the model projects about 27.7 and leans under the 18.5 line.
Expected ~27.7 games · leans Under 18.5