Date: Thu, 08 October 2026 at 05:10
Bernard Tomic faces Matteo Arnaldi at Shanghai Masters on hard court in a best-of-3 format. Here is how our model reads the matchup.
Our model makes Matteo Arnaldi a clear favourite at 64% to win. Matteo Arnaldi leads on Elo by 91 points (1495 to 1586).
Bernard Tomic is especially strong on hard court; hard court is not Matteo Arnaldi's favoured surface.
Bernard Tomic and Matteo Arnaldi have not met on tour before.
On total games, the model projects about 23.8 and leans under the 22.5 line.
Expected ~23.8 games · leans Under 22.5