Date: Sun, 30 August 2026 at 15:00
Daria Kasatkina faces Paula Badosa at US Open on hard court in a best-of-3 format. Here is how our model reads the matchup.
Our Elo rating makes Paula Badosa a slight favourite at 56% to win. Paula Badosa leads on Elo by 41 points (1612 to 1653).
Hard court is not Daria Kasatkina's favoured surface; Paula Badosa is especially strong on hard court; Paula Badosa has struggled lately, 3 wins from 10.
Daria Kasatkina leads the head-to-head 5–3; Daria Kasatkina won the most recent meeting in 2025.