Date: Mon, 27 July 2026 at 17:00
Matteo Arnaldi faces Lorenzo Musetti at Washington Open on hard court in a best-of-3 format. Here is how our model reads the matchup.
Our model makes Lorenzo Musetti a heavy favourite at 79% to win. Lorenzo Musetti holds a commanding 216-point Elo edge (1612 to 1828).
Hard court is not Matteo Arnaldi's favoured surface; Lorenzo Musetti is especially strong on hard court; Matteo Arnaldi arrives in form, winning 8 of the last 10; Lorenzo Musetti arrives in form, winning 7 of the last 10.
Lorenzo Musetti leads the head-to-head 3–0; Lorenzo Musetti won the most recent meeting in 2025.
On total games, the model projects about 27.3 and leans under the 22 line.
Expected ~27.3 games · leans Under 22