Bundesliga Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Oct 16–19, 2026)
The weekend slate
9 Bundesliga fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Oct 16–19, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Bundesliga hub.
Fixture-by-fixture model read
Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln — Fri, Oct 16, 20:30
Our model prices Eintracht Frankfurt at 30%, the draw at 21% and 1. FC Köln at 49%. The model's expected total is ~2.9 goals, leaning Over 3.5 (~51%). Form (last 5, most recent first): Eintracht Frankfurt L-D-W-L-D, 1. FC Köln W-L-D-L-W.
Find the bets where soft books misprice the odds.
See today's value bets — free accountSV 07 Elversberg vs FC Augsburg — Sat, Oct 17, 15:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): SV 07 Elversberg L-D-L-W-W, FC Augsburg D-L-D-W-W.
FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 — Sat, Oct 17, 15:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): FC Schalke 04 L-D-W-D-L, 1. FSV Mainz 05 L-W-L-W-D.
SV Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 — Sat, Oct 17, 15:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): SV Werder Bremen D-W-D-W-L, SC Paderborn 07 L-W-L-L-D.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart — Sat, Oct 17, 15:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): Hamburger SV W-W-L-L-L, VfB Stuttgart W-L-L-W-L.
1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund — Sat, Oct 17, 15:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): 1. FC Union Berlin W-L-L-L-D, Borussia Dortmund D-W-W-W-W.
FC Bayern München vs RB Leipzig — Sat, Oct 17, 18:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): FC Bayern München D-W-W-D-W, RB Leipzig W-L-W-L-W.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg — Sun, Oct 18, 15:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): Bayer 04 Leverkusen W-W-D-W-L, SC Freiburg W-D-W-W-W.
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG Hoffenheim — Sun, Oct 18, 17:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): Borussia Mönchengladbach L-L-L-L-L, TSG Hoffenheim L-L-W-L-L.
An honest caveat
A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.