Bundesliga Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Aug 28–31, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Bundesliga weekend (Aug 28–31, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 5 of 9 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Bundesliga hub.

• FC Bayern München 5–1 VfB Stuttgart — model lean: FC Bayern München (68%) ✅
• RB Leipzig 3–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach — model lean: RB Leipzig (62%) ✅
• 1. FC Köln 3–2 TSG Hoffenheim — model lean: TSG Hoffenheim (42%) ❌
• 1. FC Union Berlin 3–3 Eintracht Frankfurt — model lean: 1. FC Union Berlin (39%) ❌
• 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–0 SC Paderborn 07 — model lean: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (46%) ❌
• SV 07 Elversberg 3–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen — model lean: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (49%) ❌
• Borussia Dortmund 2–0 Hamburger SV — model lean: Borussia Dortmund (75%) ✅
• SC Freiburg 4–1 SV Werder Bremen — model lean: SC Freiburg (54%) ✅
• FC Augsburg 3–0 FC Schalke 04 — model lean: FC Augsburg (47%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach — RB Leipzig +0: ✅ Won (+0.77u, CLV +1.6pp)
• 1. FC Köln vs TSG Hoffenheim — Under3.0: ❌ Lost (-0.68u, CLV +2.5pp)
• Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV — Over3.0: ❌ Lost (-1.21u, CLV +0.0pp)
• SC Freiburg vs SV Werder Bremen — SC Freiburg to win: ✅ Won (+1.55u, CLV +8.3pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 9 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.