Serie A Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Aug 28–31, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Serie A weekend (Aug 28–31, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 2 of 6 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Serie A hub.

• AC Milan 2–0 Venezia FC — model lean: AC Milan (94%) ✅
• ACF Fiorentina 0–3 Frosinone Calcio — model lean: the draw (64%) ❌
• US Sassuolo Calcio 2–1 Torino FC — model lean: the draw (80%) ❌
• AC Monza 2–3 Udinese Calcio — model lean: the draw (60%) ❌
• Juventus FC 2–0 Parma Calcio 1913 — model lean: Juventus FC (78%) ✅
• SSC Napoli 1–2 Como 1907 — model lean: SSC Napoli (55%) ❌

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Juventus FC vs Parma Calcio 1913 — Juventus FC +0: ✅ Won (+0.24u, CLV +2.5pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 6 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.