Eredivisie Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Aug 28–31, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Eredivisie weekend (Aug 28–31, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 2 of 8 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Eredivisie hub.

• FC Groningen 2–3 Fortuna Sittard — model lean: the draw (47%) ❌
• SBV Excelsior 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam — model lean: the draw (62%) ❌
• AZ 5–2 Go Ahead Eagles — model lean: AZ (61%) ✅
• PEC Zwolle 1–3 NEC — model lean: the draw (82%) ❌
• FC Utrecht 1–6 PSV — model lean: PSV (72%) ✅
• Feyenoord Rotterdam 2–2 ADO Den Haag — model lean: Feyenoord Rotterdam (78%) ❌
• Willem II Tilburg 2–2 SC Heerenveen — model lean: SC Heerenveen (54%) ❌
• Telstar 1963 0–4 AFC Ajax — model lean: the draw (76%) ❌

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• FC Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard — Under3.0: ❌ Lost (-1.97u, CLV +1.0pp)
• SBV Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam — SBV Excelsior +0: ✅ Won (+1.31u, CLV -4.4pp)
• Feyenoord Rotterdam vs ADO Den Haag — Feyenoord Rotterdam +0: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +3.0pp)
• Willem II Tilburg vs SC Heerenveen — SC Heerenveen +0: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +1.4pp)
• Telstar 1963 vs AFC Ajax — AFC Ajax +0: ✅ Won (+0.84u, CLV +3.4pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 8 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.