Ligue 1 Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Aug 28–31, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Ligue 1 weekend (Aug 28–31, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 0 of 8 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Ligue 1 hub.

• Lille OSC 2–2 Paris Saint-Germain FC — model lean: Lille OSC (65%) ❌
• RC Strasbourg Alsace 2–1 Racing Club de Lens — model lean: Racing Club de Lens (100%) ❌
• Stade Brestois 29 2–2 Toulouse FC — model lean: Stade Brestois 29 (51%) ❌
• FC Lorient 1–2 ES Troyes AC — model lean: the draw (90%) ❌
• Olympique Lyonnais 1–1 Le Havre AC — model lean: Olympique Lyonnais (94%) ❌
• AJ Auxerre 1–3 Angers SCO — model lean: the draw (79%) ❌
• Paris FC 3–0 OGC Nice — model lean: the draw (90%) ❌
• Stade Rennais FC 1901 3–2 Le Mans FC — model lean: the draw (89%) ❌

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• FC Lorient vs ES Troyes AC — Over2.25: ✅ Won (+0.64u, CLV +0.0pp)
• AJ Auxerre vs Angers SCO — Angers SCO +0.50: ✅ Won (+0.64u, CLV +0.0pp)
• AJ Auxerre vs Angers SCO — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-0.95u, CLV +0.5pp)
• Paris FC vs OGC Nice — Over2.25: ✅ Won (+0.84u, CLV +0.0pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 8 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.