Premier League Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Oct 16–19, 2026)

The weekend slate

10 Premier League fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Oct 16–19, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Premier League hub.

Fixture-by-fixture model read

Everton FC vs Chelsea FC — Sat, Oct 17, 13:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Everton FC D-W-D-D-D, Chelsea FC W-L-D-L-W.

Brentford FC vs Liverpool FC — Sat, Oct 17, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Brentford FC D-W-D-D-D, Liverpool FC W-L-W-D-W.

Fulham FC vs Hull City AFC — Sat, Oct 17, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Fulham FC L-D-D-L-L, Hull City AFC D-L-D-D-W.

Manchester City FC vs Ipswich Town FC — Sat, Oct 17, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Manchester City FC L-W-W-W-W, Ipswich Town FC W-L-W-L-L.

Newcastle United FC vs Aston Villa FC — Sat, Oct 17, 18:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Newcastle United FC L-W-L-D-W, Aston Villa FC W-D-W-L-W.

Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Crystal Palace FC — Sun, Oct 18, 15:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Brighton & Hove Albion FC W-W-W-D-L, Crystal Palace FC W-D-L-W-L.

AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland AFC — Sun, Oct 18, 15:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): AFC Bournemouth L-L-D-D-D, Sunderland AFC L-L-L-D-W.

Leeds United FC vs Manchester United FC — Sun, Oct 18, 15:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Leeds United FC L-D-W-D-D, Manchester United FC L-D-D-L-W.

Nottingham Forest FC vs Arsenal FC — Sun, Oct 18, 17:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Nottingham Forest FC L-L-W-D-D, Arsenal FC W-W-L-W-W.

Tottenham Hotspur FC vs Coventry City FC — Mon, Oct 19, 21:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Tottenham Hotspur FC D-L-D-D-L, Coventry City FC W-W-L-L-L.

An honest caveat

A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.