Serie A Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Sep 11–14, 2026)
The weekend slate
10 Serie A fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Sep 11–14, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is Venezia FC vs ACF Fiorentina. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Serie A hub.
Fixture-by-fixture model read
Venezia FC vs ACF Fiorentina — Fri, Sep 11, 20:45
Our model prices Venezia FC at 37%, the draw at 58% and ACF Fiorentina at 6%. The model's expected total is ~2.7 goals, leaning Under 2.75 (~52%). Form (last 5, most recent first): Venezia FC L-L-L, ACF Fiorentina L-L-L-D-W.
Find the bets where soft books misprice the odds.
See today's value bets — free accountGenoa CFC vs Frosinone Calcio — Sat, Sep 12, 15:00
Form (last 5, most recent first): Genoa CFC L-L-L-L-L, Frosinone Calcio W-W-L.
SS Lazio vs AC Milan — Sat, Sep 12, 18:00
Form (last 5, most recent first): SS Lazio W-W-W-W-L, AC Milan D-W-W-L-W.
Atalanta BC vs Cagliari Calcio — Sat, Sep 12, 20:45
Form (last 5, most recent first): Atalanta BC L-W-W-D-L, Cagliari Calcio W-L-W-W-W.
US Lecce vs AC Monza — Sun, Sep 13, 15:00
Form (last 5, most recent first): US Lecce L-L-W-W-W, AC Monza D-L-L.
SSC Napoli vs Bologna FC 1909 — Sun, Sep 13, 18:00
Form (last 5, most recent first): SSC Napoli L-L-L-W-W, Bologna FC 1909 D-L-L-D-W.
US Sassuolo Calcio vs Juventus FC — Sun, Sep 13, 20:45
Form (last 5, most recent first): US Sassuolo Calcio D-W-L-L-L, Juventus FC D-W-W-D-L.
Como 1907 vs Parma Calcio 1913 — Mon, Sep 14, 18:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): Como 1907 W-W-W-D-W, Parma Calcio 1913 D-L-L-W-L.
Torino FC vs AS Roma — Mon, Sep 14, 18:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): Torino FC W-L-L-D-L, AS Roma D-W-W-W-W.
FC Internazionale Milano vs Udinese Calcio — Mon, Sep 14, 20:45
Form (last 5, most recent first): FC Internazionale Milano L-W-W-W-D, Udinese Calcio L-W-D-L-L.
An honest caveat
A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.