UFC: Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van Preview — Full Card Model Reads & Power Ratings

UFC: Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van headlines a card with 5 fights our model has generated pre-fight reads for on September 10, 2026. Below: model win probabilities, method reads and power-rating context for every fight on the main card.

Main event

Alexandre Pantoja meets Joshua Van in a fight scheduled for 3 rounds. Our model gives Joshua Van a 72% chance to win. Method: 29% KO/TKO, 16% submission, 56% decision — a 58% chance this fight goes the distance. By our whole-history power rating (Bradley-Terry, the same method behind the win-probability read), Joshua Van rates above Alexandre Pantoja.

Card breakdown

• Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van: model favours Joshua Van at 72% (Elo 1634 vs 1631) Method: 29% KO/TKO, 16% submission, 56% decision — a 58% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Mauricio Ruffy vs Arman Tsarukyan: model favours Arman Tsarukyan at 81% (Elo 1562 vs 1638) Method: 44% KO/TKO, 9% submission, 46% decision — a 49% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Robelis Despaigne vs Tai Tuivasa: model favours Tai Tuivasa at 58% (Elo 1482 vs 1476) Method: 42% KO/TKO, 10% submission, 48% decision — a 45% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy: model favours Arman Tsarukyan at 81% (Elo 1638 vs 1562) Method: 44% KO/TKO, 9% submission, 46% decision — a 49% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Tai Tuivasa vs Robelis Despaigne: model favours Tai Tuivasa at 58% (Elo 1476 vs 1482) Method: 42% KO/TKO, 10% submission, 48% decision — a 45% chance this fight goes the distance.